Fight Night 82

8-6 picking winners in 2016

Here are a few thoughts on this card, which overall I don't love.

Jared Rosholt over Roy Nelson (Decision)

This is the lock of the night - Vegas is way off on this one. Rosholt has won 6 of last 7 with 3 straight, while Nelson has lost 5 of last 6. Rosholt is going to get Nelson on his back and stay on top for the majority of this fight, doing just enough on the ground to keep his position. There's no question here... Rosholt +118 is easy.

Johnny Hendricks over Stephen Thompson (Decision)

I can't stand Johnny Hendricks and will be praying he loses, despite having my money on him. I'd love to see Wonderboy knock Hendricks out with a crazy spinning head kick. But it won't happen. The difference in ground game here is just too much for Wonderboy to overcome. As boring as wrestlers are to watch in the UFC, Hendricks is one of the best to do it at this level & he will lay & pray his way to an easy 5 round decision. Hendricks wins unanimous decision is currently at +235, probably the best way to bet this fight.

Ovince St Preux over Rafael Cavalcante (TKO)

OVP is going to knock out Rafael. Cavalcante's only chance in this fight is to either submit OVP or win a robbery decision. He can't strike at OVP's level, and hasn't won by submission in 10 years (despite training under Minotauro his entire career)

Ray Borg over Justin Scoggins (submission)

Ray Borg is a bad stylistic matchup for Scoggins. Scoggins has decent takedown defense, but Borg is very good (and persistent) with takedowns and I think he'll be able to get Scoggins to the ground. If he can do it with a couple minutes to work, I think he'll get a submission victory.

Noad Lahat over Diego Rivas (decision)

Lahat has been decent in his last 2 fights after losing by brutal knockout to Godofredo Pepey. Given that Rivas is on his debut, Lahat is the easy pick here. Lahat is very tough and has the experience edge.

KJ Noons over Joshua Burkman (TKO)

I think this is a good spot for Noons to get back on track. He's coming off a loss to Alex Oliviera where he foolishly gave up his back and got choked. His previous fight wasn't going well against Cruickshank when a nasty eye poke to Cruickshank ended the fight as a no contest. But even with those 2 recent fights, I have no faith in Burkman to win this fight. He was picked apart in his last 2 fights and just doesn't seem to have the striking necessary to beat KJ Noons.

Good luck Whitebelt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BTW take it easy on THE BIG RIGG.

LOL Hendricks got this. Wonderboy has no answer for the wrestling.

Also Hendricks has managed his weight cut very well this fight after having trouble his last couple camps. He was only 3 pounds over the day before weigh ins, which is unheard of. I think most welterweights are cutting 10+ pounds the day of weigh ins, so he's doing great.

Could be right about the wrestling of Hendricks. I dont see Stephen's wrestling as below average, Hendricks is above. Stephen wont be able to go 100 percent on the feet as he has to be cautious when Hendricks closes the distance. Very cautious fight for both sides. Stephen will need to fight this very calculated in bursts of attacks. 

Nice Write up Whitebelt..