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Early picks TJ vs Cruz?

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Posted: #1
Last title shot im going to bet on, maybe Holm vs Ronda too because of huge mismatch in holm's favor and underdog for holm. Cruz over TJ. Cruz has lots of movement, better than TJ's, crouches, leans, head movement all postives in Cruz's game over TJ. Tj still great movement, more strength. Cruz out of injury will push him to win this fight.

Close match up. Would be a lot of back and forth like Lawler vs Condit. Tj strong like lawler but better movement vs Cruz more diverse movement and good defence, unpredictible. 

Two likely out comes TJ by KO, Cruz by win (decision). More towards Cruz.
 
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Posted: #2
Holm over Ronda. Rondas ground game is garbage and her only winning tool. Throw opponents to the ground and submit by armbar, never triangle, leg locks, chokes. never passes guard, full mount, nothing. Why? Her opponents dont have good bjj, she doesnt need to do anything special. 

She was the reason I started betting, when I thought everyone was thinking that Holm was going to KO Ronda instead everyone was stunned.. champion kickboxer, strikes are technically solid and head kicks are fast, hidden and strong. Also she has the body of a bodybuilder on steroids. 


 Rondas coach is not the reason why Ronda was the champ. She should of dropped him but she has an attachment to him. Harsh words but is the truth. No game plan before or during the break. Just practicing pads and light sparring trying to KO a world champ kickboxer. Rondas does not fight smart nor does she have the team to draw up a game plan. Shes also insane.. 

Even if Ronda gets Holly on the ground holly is much stronger than her previous opponents and is more than likely training BJJ defence. Avoid the throw and armbar and its an easy win for Holly. 
 
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Posted: #3
I think Cruz loses here, of course I could be wrong and Im not super confident but I like TJ to win. He has really improved and lot and Cruz has been barely around for years now.  Im not going to bet it but thats just my two cents.
 
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Posted: #4
I think your onto something with Holm.  I'm thinking about loading the boat on that one.  Why would the outcome be any different unless somehow Ronda dominates Holm on the ground?  She got absolutely embarrassed and they are making her a slight favorite as of now??  I'm going with Cruz too.  It will be a striking matchup and I think he is smarter than TJ and can make better adjustments and will win on points.
 
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Posted: #5
Holm was the pick at the first matchup, still is at +130 or so now. Her camp is now training to out think rondas new plan. Edmund is not a fight coach, hes a boxing coach. Weight is lifted off Ronda from that loss but I dont see her getting more muscular than Holm, striking cant improve so much, her throws arent getting better. Her ground game does not compare.

People betting ronda thinks that headkick was lucky or she needed to not bull rush her. She would of been taken down by punches.  Odds say that Ronda is so good she is the favourite after that loss. Thats BS. We wont get tricked that easily.. 

There is always the odds that Ronda gets holm in the armbar so I am not going big on this


 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

I think Cruz loses here, of course I could be wrong and Im not super confident but I like TJ to win. He has really improved and lot and Cruz has been barely around for years now.  Im not going to bet it but thats just my two cents.

I think slight odds to Tj or cruz depending how cruz decides to fight. Cruz decides to fight straight on he will lose. I dont expect knockout by cruz. 

Fight will look like Condit against lawler (cruz as condit style), but better head movement, punches and kicks with intent from Cruz. Tj copied cruz's style so he has better movement than lawler. I think cruz's style will be hard to deal with since he is very accurate and random.

KO by TJ better chance than KO by Cruz. Decision /by Cruz is likely outcome. Looks like standing fight with TJ taking Cruz down few times.

To make the match more exciting I bet small cruz. Coin flip match. Might go ko by tj to hedge, up cruz bet. 
 
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Posted: #7
"Her ground game does not compare."

compare to elite grapplers, holm's strength will be something ronda hasnt dealt with on the ground. Her technique will need to be fantastic,she doesnt know how to pull off a triangle and with holly's strength wont be able to pull off a kimura. 
 
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Posted: #8
So far I have:

Holm over Rousey - 4/5 confidence
Cruz over Tj  - 3/5 confidence
Matt over Travis browne - 3/5 confidence (may parlay this bet with holm)  

Matt is under rated fighter. Travis doesnt do well with anyone who pressures him judging from Arlovski fight, few hits from Matt and he questions his game plan (his striking is below par so he doesnt push). Stipe would flatten both them out, arlovski already took out Travis. Travis is also dating Ronda...

Definately not a mismatch. Matt last two losses by choke, if he avoids travis on the ground he should be the favourite on the feet. Travis has no choke victory in his record.  Striking is lacking, he has power though. 




 
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Posted: #9
Holm wants to fight before the rematch and no guarantee she beats Tate or Cat!!!
 
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Posted: #10
guarantee she beats a tate and cat tag team.
I can break it down if you want. 



UFC will want their cash cow Ronda as champ. Holly doesnt KO then she loses to decision by rigging. Yes, Im convinced the judge and ref rig certain fights. Immediate rematch for Ronda but not for Aldo? 

 Why is Holly +130, not the favourite unless they want people to bet her then let ronda win by decision. Holly isnt going to KO Ronda again that easily. Ronda wont bull rush, just run up points. Another bad judging call. Ronda wins without rigging then they let it go. Ronda has better odds with the rigging in her favor, only has to watch out for a KO hence her line is favourite. 

Same went for Aldo +130. They hyped up aldo 10 year champ, confused the hell out of me. Mcgregor haters went heavy on Aldo even out the line. I already knew mcgregor was going to win and let them talk me out of it. Conor if he fought Aldo 10 times would win 10. No one is beating Conor unless he gets choked out or a new fighter comes in and takes over that is legit. 

UFC ran promos of Aldo, youtube had videos of fighers choosing sides, the fighters dont know more than any regular watcher.Aldo knew before he went into the cage he was a dead man. He was scared of Conor from day one. If you catch onto it early you will get the right pick, dont let them fool you. Conor was speaking the truth. 



Holly holm wins by KO or Ronda by decision or armbar. Bet those, probably less on armbar, Holly is too strong. 

Cruz loses to TJ. I picked the other way around already.. No way they let Cruz be champ with the more exciting TJ already there. Cruz will win by points but they give it to TJ. 

Mittrione win over Travis. No rigging here neither will become champ. I do like mittrione though as a fighter, underated striker.

 
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Posted: #11
To make it easy to read.

Holly holm KO 35 percent chance. Ronda win 65 percent chance by decision. 

TJ over Cruz. KO or decision. Cruz chance of KO 10 percent. 

Matt over Travis. The X over Matt. 


 
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Posted: #12
the value on cruz to win by decision at +255 is too good to pass up in my opinion
 
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Posted: #13
I can't help but be swayed by Dom's confidence even with the layoffs and injuries. I played Cruz at +120 and Cruz decision +255. Can always bet TJ later if his line continues to improve or after the weigh-ins if there are any significant interactions.
 
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Posted: #14
So let me gets this straight, Holm who should of lost to Pennington now can beat Tate and Cat at the same time???
 
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Posted: #15
Justine Kish don't even fight in the same weight class as Holm!!!
 
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Posted: #16
My picks were removed by someone at covers. They are the exact opposite as the ones above. 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

Justine Kish don't even fight in the same weight class as Holm!!!


You piece of shit stop attacking everything he says
 
 
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Posted: #18
Dillashaw will win, his fight with Barao proves he can take a punch.. Cruz out too long... also Holm will win the rematch.. i didnt see her winning the first one, why would she win the 2nd? Rousey has alot of work to do on striking, maybe get the diaz bros to help her out, it takes more time to get the fundamentals than stuffing take downs (having a wide low stance)... she will get picked apart again.

I think Pettis will beat Alvarez tonight, unless he gets punched in the eye first swing LOL.
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