Bader vs Johnson recap

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Underdog winsBarberena &#x2B;250  (fought an opponent that had little experience in the cage) Not a good bet on Barberena unless I saw him use that sort of choke previous match. Exposed flaws in Sage defense and fight iq. The guy gave up. Diego ferreira &#x2B;220 (Had this match up 60 percent for his opponent, too evenly matched on paper).Ben Rothwell &#x2B;140 (had real hype, his striking has some flaws, he makes it up with his push forward pace and strong chin, strong head crank. Overeem (good opponent) has been looking good so far and should be able to crack Ben as long as he avoids his chokes)Reis &#x2B;200 His physical strength plus grappling is impossible for him to lose unless w/ very talented grappler his size. Not surprised if he test postive for PED. Trap betting spotsBader &#x2B;250 (the line was accurate overhyped him, AJ had great grappling)Sullivan &#x2B;110 (unaccurate line  should be &#x2B;150, he was outclassed grappling and had major flaw in head positioning)Sage -300 (line could of been -140 sage, more risk than the line shows)Good bets RiveraSaffadiene RafaelReisAlexanderRothwellFirst 3 negative odds, bottom 3 positive odds. All about the same chance to win. Few other bets were okay but not as safe as these bets. NotesWrestling and BJJ at high levels will win matches a lot of the time against lesser wrestlers especially if they are good at getting takedowns. Does not work well against those that are heavy handed like AJ unless you have superior wrestling like cormier did, strong chin and mentality. More technical striking, timing, range of attack, closing the gap, fluid footwork wins matches easier (most like this style are more evasive and coast to win), exception are those with heavy shots that mixes them in with technical strikes can be problematic.

Redwing51 · Answer

Underdog winsBarberena &#x2B;250  (fought an opponent that had little experience in the cage) Not a good bet on Barberena unless I saw him use that sort of choke previous match. Exposed flaws in Sage defense and fight iq. The guy gave up. Diego ferreira &#x2B;220 (Had this match up 60 percent for his opponent, too evenly matched on paper).Ben Rothwell &#x2B;140 (had real hype, his striking has some flaws, he makes it up with his push forward pace and strong chin, strong head crank. Overeem (good opponent) has been looking good so far and should be able to crack Ben as long as he avoids his chokes)Reis &#x2B;200 His physical strength plus grappling is impossible for him to lose unless w/ very talented grappler his size. Not surprised if he test postive for PED. Trap betting spotsBader &#x2B;250 (the line was accurate overhyped him, AJ had great grappling)Sullivan &#x2B;110 (unaccurate line  should be &#x2B;150, he was outclassed grappling and had major flaw in head positioning)Sage -300 (line could of been -140 sage, more risk than the line shows)Good bets RiveraSaffadiene RafaelReisAlexanderRothwellFirst 3 negative odds, bottom 3 positive odds. All about the same chance to win. Few other bets were okay but not as safe as these bets. NotesWrestling and BJJ at high levels will win matches a lot of the time against lesser wrestlers especially if they are good at getting takedowns. Does not work well against those that are heavy handed like AJ unless you have superior wrestling like cormier did, strong chin and mentality. More technical striking, timing, range of attack, closing the gap, fluid footwork wins matches easier (most like this style are more evasive and coast to win), exception are those with heavy shots that mixes them in with technical strikes can be problematic.

Ferrari29 · Answer

Nice write up. This is how I saw it:Bader&#x27;s a bum and is about 5th best in a weak division.Love Rothwell but what was Barnett thinking, he won the 1st fighting southpaw.Rivera is ok, I do like him but his fights will only get tougher.Northcutt, tried a stupid Weidman like move and tapped early.Tarec I think hurt his left foot, so he&#x27;ll be out another year.I knew Mercier isn&#x27;t that great and fighting in America for the first time didn&#x27;t help either.Natal I think can make the top 10 in a old division.Weis looked awesome, WOW did I miss that one.Yakovlev looked awesome too, miss this one as well, lol.First four fights were mostly boring and nobody jumped out at me.How about the cut list: Ellenberger, Casey, Fullen, and Jackson.

Ferrari29 · Answer

BTW RED, Rothwell already beat Overeem!!!!!!!!!!!

Redwing51 · Answer

They did fight. Overeem chin isnt so solid. Rematch would be interesting, the chin is too much of a flaw. Same plan as Dos Santos fight he could of beat Ben with that cautious style. Whoever fights Ben needs to win by points. I shouldnt assume they automatically will do the proper thing, sometimes fighters have some thing else they want to prove.

Reis looks like he's on PED's.

There is hype that UFC creates that confuses matters. Fell into it..

Ellenberg has a type of skillset that will take him so far. He trys to go for one punch knockouts only, when he doesnt have the strength to rely on it. Saffediene out scored him.

Redwing51 · Answer

Always need to consider every little aspect. Barnett vs Rothwell, Barnett was holding up well to his strikes, Overeem doesnt have Barnetts chin though.

Something I overlook is changes in styles and fixing flaws. Anything within a year is a good representation of how they will fight, for a good fighter they will change things up slightly each opponent.

Pettis vs Alvarez. Reis vs Ortiz. Reis + Alvarez both much larger than opponent. Automatically with these bigger fighters I need to check if they have wrestling or BJJ skills that they will look to use to run out the clock.

A technical fighter on the feet may have no wrestling background, not TD defence.Doesnt matter who is on the ground they can get caught in a rear naked or guillotine choke.

tjohnsont · Answer

I think Bader didn&#x27;t want to be in the ring.  Went for the takedown as a hail mary and missed.

Bader vs Johnson recap

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