Bader had a dissapointing fight.He didnt have enough skill to grind out a win. Bad bet on my end. Shouldnt have tried to over reach at something that wasnt there.. Rumble vs Cormier was a special case.
Definately need to cut out half of these parlays. Although if I cut out sage and Sullivan's opponent It would have been +300 to +400 profit
Sullivan and Sage opponent was my least looked into fighters. I counted out both their opponents without looking into them.. Will need to stop over estimating and overlooking aspects of a fighter. Any fight can end any second.
Sullivan leaves his chin wide open, isnt very dynamic. Sage had a ton of weaknesses that I knew but glossed over them. At worst I should avoid the bets.
-144 profit.
Bader had a dissapointing fight.He didnt have enough skill to grind out a win. Bad bet on my end. Shouldnt have tried to over reach at something that wasnt there.. Rumble vs Cormier was a special case.
Definately need to cut out half of these parlays. Although if I cut out sage and Sullivan's opponent It would have been +300 to +400 profit
Sullivan and Sage opponent was my least looked into fighters. I counted out both their opponents without looking into them.. Will need to stop over estimating and overlooking aspects of a fighter. Any fight can end any second.
Sullivan leaves his chin wide open, isnt very dynamic. Sage had a ton of weaknesses that I knew but glossed over them. At worst I should avoid the bets.
Next fight will be more structured. If I bet Rothwell, Rivera and Saffediene, small parlay AJ + Roth,and a small parlay bet of 4 picks I would be in the positive. Too indulgent on the positive odd bets that had awful chances that werent there. Overhyped fighters that had obvious flaws with little return: Sage. Overhyped fighters that had little chance with high return:Bader.
When I have not made up my mind yet I should avoid listening to promos that persuade my opinion. Game plan of both fighters, what weakness to exploit, strength, reach, grappling, bjj, striking. Habits, Range of attack. Any attacks that are troublesome or fight enders.
Big flaws in movement, striking or holes in grappling that are easily exploited or will get them caught by a hard strike, out scored on the feet or ground.
It will look something like (bet the entire card + main event in a structured way)
Top 3 - 4 bets
Rothwell
Rivera
Saffediene
Roth + AJ bet 50 percent of flat amount
Parlay of bets that are too high odds, still 65 percent odds each, excluding top bet. 4 bets
Levan + Brown + Saffediene + Rivera
Next fight will be more structured. If I bet Rothwell, Rivera and Saffediene, small parlay AJ + Roth,and a small parlay bet of 4 picks I would be in the positive. Too indulgent on the positive odd bets that had awful chances that werent there. Overhyped fighters that had obvious flaws with little return: Sage. Overhyped fighters that had little chance with high return:Bader.
When I have not made up my mind yet I should avoid listening to promos that persuade my opinion. Game plan of both fighters, what weakness to exploit, strength, reach, grappling, bjj, striking. Habits, Range of attack. Any attacks that are troublesome or fight enders.
Big flaws in movement, striking or holes in grappling that are easily exploited or will get them caught by a hard strike, out scored on the feet or ground.
It will look something like (bet the entire card + main event in a structured way)
Top 3 - 4 bets
Rothwell
Rivera
Saffediene
Roth + AJ bet 50 percent of flat amount
Parlay of bets that are too high odds, still 65 percent odds each, excluding top bet. 4 bets
Should've gone larger on Barberena. Those odds were a god damn joke.
I cant disagree with you. Sage wasnt motivated, didnt bother to defend the choke. He could of won the fight if he tried, would of been close, probably next fight he had only knockout as a winning move at his experience level.
Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:
Should've gone larger on Barberena. Those odds were a god damn joke.
I cant disagree with you. Sage wasnt motivated, didnt bother to defend the choke. He could of won the fight if he tried, would of been close, probably next fight he had only knockout as a winning move at his experience level.
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