Made a good buck on Cung Le/ Rich Franklin fight siding with the dog at the last UFC event, I think I'll try my hand at a couple more tonight.
Shogun Rua (+175) - After a string of ho hum performances the lines makers are capping Rua as a major underdog tonight. This is probably justified, as Rua has often been a question mark as far as conditioning is concerned, and Gus has been a one man wrecking crew, dominating several credible veterans of the sports such as Vlady, Hammel, and Thiago Silva. Nonetheless, Rua has faced a steady stream of top contenders for nearly 10 years, while this is Alexander's first trip into top 10 waters. The pressure will definitely be on Gus tonight, who should have the edge in the standup with his long reach and crafty boxing skills. While Rua has a dynamic toolset of his own in the standup department, I couldn't help but notice how much of an edge Rua will have if this fight gets to the ground. This is not Rua's first fight against a tall, lengthy, and dangerous fighter - Rua has squared off against both Cyril Diabete (sp?) and Alister Overeem (twice), and prevailed on each occasion by getting his opponent down to the mat and administering different facets of his game (albiet he will no longer have his patented soccer kick to the face at his disposal like in the Snake fight). Standing and trading firepower with Alexander is playing with fire, and I think Shogun is ultimately too smart to throw caution to the wind all too much tonight, though I'm sure we will see it in spurts. I expect him to get Gus on his back at some point in time and use his underrated ground and pound, maybe even look for a choke ala the Gus/Davis fight. Alexander Gustafsson is a very promising young fighter, and has a very legitimate shot to win this fight no doubt, but it has to be taken into consideration that he has never seen this type of animal before, nor faced this much pressure. Gimme Rua at + money.
BJ Penn (+230) Yes, I know, Rory Macdonald is the second coming of Jesus Christ. A complete ass whooping machine with a seemlessly limitless gas tank. Kid is a beast no doubt. And hailing from my home country at that. I'm still taking Penn. He will be undersized, rusty from a long layoff, and giving up over 10 years to perhaps the sport's brightest young prospect. But he's still one of MMA's alltime greats, and he still has the ability to end a fight in an instant. All it takes is one mistake and its lights for Rory. Anyone remember what happened when he fought Carlos Condit not too long ago? Do I think BJ Penn will win this one? Not really I can't lie. But the value is just too good to pass up on for one of best to ever do it.
Nate Diaz (+130) Tough fight to cap for sure. Definitely two of the premier fighters in the world going at it, and both guys are just so fun to watch. Many people dispute the Henderson's two victories over Edgar (I thought he won the first, lost the 2nd personally), but it can't be argued that he has stepped his game up to a higher level than ever since entering the UFC. Diaz's losses have typically come from guys stronger than him who can bully him around and enforce their will on him (Maynard, Macdonald), and Bendo is no stranger to wearing guys down and grinding out wins himself, no fight better showcasing this than his victory over Jim Miller. But while Bendo is very big for a LW, Diaz is simply huge, and for those of you who missed the Cerone/Diaz fight, Nate's boxing has improved tenfold. His movement and volume of punches looked like an exact replica brother Nick, who has some of the best hands on the sport. I expect this fight to go down similarly to the Hendo/Pettis fight (save the kick) with Nate's unorthodox striking and high paced style eventually wearing Bendo down in the later rounds. Should be a fun one to watch for any MMA fan.
I know every one of these won't hit, but I'm pretty sure all of the favorites won't hit either. I feel many of these fights are closer than the lines would indicate, and if I can score two out of three it should be a profitable night.
Good luck tonight gentleman 
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