mollydog wins again

@viper5887

 Thank you for that! Do you find that Pinnacle-moves are one of the most relevant in regard to smart $$$? And thanks again to Mollydog for the tips. BetOnline seems to be a book that has more value moves than others I look at. 

@mollydog

 I wouldn't even bother even answering the critics. I seen you historical statsm and you didn't even start off that successful it just looks like you developed a nice successful system that has worked for you in recent years and I proud of you . Dcrunk022

How can mollydog be so far ahead in the NCAAF overall standings, but not be anywhere near the top of the monthly standings?

@Inverted_P3nith

Why Certain Contest Players Always Get “The Best Line” in College Basketball

There has been a lot of confusion on Covers about one recurring issue:
How can certain players always seem to lock in the best number in college hoops contests?

They aren’t psychic.
They aren’t super-sharp handicappers.
They aren’t fixing games.

What they *are* doing is taking advantage of how the contest lines are updated.

Let’s break it down in simple terms.

---

## 1. Contest Lines Come From Pinnacle

Covers uses Pinnacle as the line source. That part is straightforward.

But here’s the important point:

**Pinnacle updates instantly. Covers updates on a delay.**
Usually around **10–15 minutes**.

This delay is where the entire “advantage” comes from.

---

## 2. College Basketball Lines Move More Than Any Other Sport

In major sports (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB), lines barely move:

* Half a point here
* A point there
* Nothing major

But in smaller college basketball games, early lines can move **5–10 points** in a single morning.

Why?

Because these lines are soft, the limits are low, and sharp bettors hit bad numbers immediately.

Example of what happens all the time:

Pinnacle opens Lindenwood **+3.5**.
Sharp bettors smash it.
Thirty minutes later it’s **Lindenwood -3**.

That’s a **6.5-point swing** — something that never happens in pro sports.

---

## 3. Covers Lines Don’t Move During These Sharp Moves

When Pinnacle jumps from:

**+3.5 ? -3**

Covers is still showing the old number for several minutes.

So while the real world is at **LINW -3**, Covers contestants still see **LINW +3.5**.

That number is stale.

And anybody who enters picks during that gap is getting a line that no longer exists anywhere else.

---

## 4. This Creates “Free Value”

If you can grab:

* +3.5 when the true market is -2
* +4 when the true market is -1
* +2.5 when the true market is -3

you’re basically flipping a coin where someone already tells you the outcome.

This is called **closing line value (CLV)**.
In college basketball, CLV is extremely powerful.
If you beat the close by 3+ points, you win far more often than you lose — even if your actual handicapping is mediocre.

This is why certain players:

* Look unbeatable
* Always get the best number
* Only dominate during college basketball season
* Don’t win in NBA, NHL, MLB, NFL

Because pro sports do not move enough to create stale lines.

College hoops *do*.

---

## 5. These Players Are Not Handicapping Geniuses

Let’s call it what it is:

They are not beating the market.
They are beating **Covers’ 10–15 minute update lag**.

The formula is simple:

1. Watch Pinnacle live.
2. Wait for a big steam move.
3. Jump into Covers before the update hits.
4. Lock in a number that is already outdated.

This is not illegal.
But it’s not “handicapping skill,” either.
It’s timing and exploiting a delay.

---

## 6. Why They Only Win in College Basketball

Because:

* No other sport has wild early-morning line swings
* No other sport is as soft at open
* No other sport creates 4- to 7-point stale numbers
* No other sport gives free CLV the way small-conference CBB does

It’s the perfect storm for gaming the system.

---

## 7. What This Means for Contest Players

If you wonder:

“How does this guy always get the best number?”

The answer is simple:

He’s entering picks during the line-lag window every morning while Pinnacle is moving the market and Covers hasn’t updated yet.

Nothing more.
Nothing less.
No mystery.

@Vladieee

 i almost cant believe this is so hard for so many to figure out.  its not disrespectful toward mollydog or anyone else that plays this move because they are putting in the work to win the contest. great explanation!!

Dear Covers Team

I want to raise a fairness concern regarding the Georgia State vs. Arizona State total posted by the user mollydog, specifically the Under 149.5 selection. That number was not available anywhere in the market at the time indicated by his pick timestamp. Based on archived line movement, 149.5 had been gone for many hours. Given the documented movement across every book, it would have been impossible for any bettor—including mollydog—to legitimately obtain 149.5 at the time his pick was recorded, yet the system still accepted it.

Below is the essential market history across books, showing the actual totals available:

Tooniebet – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:19 ET: o145.5 -108 / u145.5 -118
Mon Nov 17 08:14 ET: o145.5 -114 / u145.5 -112
Mon Nov 17 07:59 ET: o146.5 -112 / u146.5 -114
Mon Nov 17 01:14 ET: o147.5 -113 / u147.5 -113
Sun Nov 16 22:29 ET: o148.5 -114 / u148.5 -112

Sports Interaction – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:49 ET: o143.5 -115 / u143.5 -105
Mon Nov 17 08:39 ET: o143.5 -110 / u143.5 -110
Mon Nov 17 08:34 ET: o144.5 -105 / u144.5 -115
Mon Nov 17 08:29 ET: o144.5 -110 / u144.5 -110
Mon Nov 17 08:19 ET: o144.5 -115 / u144.5 -105
Mon Nov 17 08:04 ET: o145.5 -110 / u145.5 -110

TonyBet – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:41 ET: o144.5 -114 / u144.5 -122
Mon Nov 17 08:31 ET: o144.5 -118 / u144.5 -118
Mon Nov 17 08:11 ET: o145.5 -115 / u145.5 -120
Mon Nov 17 07:56 ET: o146.5 -114 / u146.5 -122
Sun Nov 16 17:26 ET: o149.5 -122 / u149.5 -112

bet365 – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:24 ET: o144.5 -110 / u144.5 -110
Mon Nov 17 08:19 ET: o145.0 -110 / u145.0 -110
Mon Nov 17 08:09 ET: o146.0 -110 / u146.0 -110
Sun Nov 16 17:19 ET: o149.5 -110 / u149.5 -110

Pinnacle – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:21 ET: o143.5 -111 / u143.5 -109
Mon Nov 17 08:11 ET: o143.5 -110 / u143.5 -110

Betano – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:25 ET: o143.5 -110 / u143.5 -111
Mon Nov 17 08:05 ET: o147.5 -110 / u147.5 -111
Sun Nov 16 22:55 ET: o149.5 -110 / u149.5 -111

BET99 – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:33 ET: o145.5 -110 / u145.5 -110
Mon Nov 17 08:27 ET: o143.5 -115 / u143.5 -105
Sun Nov 16 18:42 ET: o149.5 -105 / u149.5 -115

Caesars – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:49 ET: o144.0 -110 / u144.0 -110
Mon Nov 17 08:19 ET: o145.0 -110 / u145.0 -110
Sun Nov 16 19:04 ET: o148.5 -110 / u148.5 -110

BetMGM – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:49 ET: o143.5 -115 / u143.5 -105
Mon Nov 17 08:19 ET: o145.5 -105 / u145.5 -115
Sun Nov 16 19:49 ET: o148.5 -110 / u148.5 -110

BetRivers – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:14 ET: o145.5 -108 / u145.5 -118
Mon Nov 17 07:59 ET: o146.5 -112 / u146.5 -114

Betway – O/U
Mon Nov 17 08:32 ET: o144.5 -110 / u144.5 -115
Mon Nov 17 08:12 ET: o145.5 -110 / u145.5 -115

Across all books, 149.5 disappeared late afternoon to early evening on Sun Nov 16. By the time his pick timestamp appears on Covers, every sportsbook was between 143.5 and 146.5. Not a single operator was offering 149.5, and none came close to returning to it. This makes the recorded pick number objectively unobtainable in any real market.

This is not a personal complaint. It is a structural concern: if outdated numbers are selectable, intentionally or not, it creates an unfair environment for everyone else operating on actual, available lines.

I am asking Covers to verify whether line selections are being validated correctly and whether users can still choose numbers after they have moved. Any clarification on how timestamps align with the actual market would help the entire community.

The goal is simple: fairness.

Wait... mollydog had a crappy November in NCAAF and extended his overall lead?  If that's the case, then wtaf?

@whosat

 If you are referring to whosat's post, not be anywhere near the top of the monthly standings does not necessarily mean a crappy month.