Trying something new…..

Gonna try to make money for once. Read below for how and why ….

longtime gambling degen.  Love it.  Will never stop.

However, I’m now retired at an earlier than normal age of 56 (for someone with not a lot of money). If I quit gambling today I probably have “JUST ENOUGH” to retire comfortably - Have 24 and 20 year old daughters still on payroll, plus wifey. We have nice house,cars, etc …nothing opulent ….and we are grateful for all we have.  I am also an assistant coach for a good JC basketball team for fun, so not bored….

BUT I’m probably not going to quit gambling, so here goes…

I’m going to simply track my 1m 401 plan. NEVER have a spent a second on this. Basically got $960k saved and got 5 years to turn it into $1.7m(or more). I’ve been playing the “buy the dip theory” for a couple years but never really tracked, paid attention to detail to, etc…. Now I’m gonna try.  

here goes to start …..Dow closed at 49400 today, Nasdaq 23600, s and p 6950. That’s going to be my start. Went into 100 percent money market today…made about 10k last week on Donald’s tariff Greenland invasion threat…. Will go back in when there is more bad news…generally I throw in 15-25 percent at a time when I feel it’s dropping but not all at once (did that before and too stressful).  generally buy a fund that focuses on the big 7 but also some blue chips  

Anyway will post next time I make a move. This thread is for myself than anything else, so don’t need any attacks from you degens  I’m a long time covers degen myself  Don’t post much but read the forums in college football almost daily. Hopefully I can help save some coin by tracking.   

@Fester

 Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq will all correct at least 40% this year. GL!!

@Fester

 I see you do not want any attacks.

So, I am not doing that at all.

But I am highly recommending against this strategy.

I have written extensively about why this is not the best plan.  I have written in places on here about not doing it as well.

It may work once or twice.  But it is always going to lose out longterm when trying to time the market.

You have seen this just in the past few years with the tariff situation and with the Pandemic.

You have all sorts of things to worry about with taxes not to mention the potential growth if you are invested and diversified in great funds.

These will always outgrow someone that goes to cash or safer funds and just waits.  

There are multiple reasons.  One is that if you are retired and wanting to reach a monetary goal you need to be even more careful than a young person just starting out planning for retirement.  I do not know your market skills.  But most folks are not savvy enough to understand the dynamics to be playing around with their whole retirement funds at once.  

Time IN the market will always beat TIMING the market.

Please talk to a financial guy in person and tell him what your plans are so he can run the numbers for you.

You do NOT want to gamble with your retirement money.

Maybe do a few times of what you think would work out by papertrading this way first.

Or maybe take 50k and try this to see if you can make it work.

I am NOT attacking you or your plan.  I am simply pointing out that no one has been able to make this method beat the market long term.  

You will always have to consider risk and personal ability, judgment, and tolerance.

900K invested correctly should easily get you where you want to be in the right amount of time.

But good luck to you in retirement and whatever you decide going forward.

@jpot34

That is NOT just 'correction' numbers. Those types of numbers require dire circumstances other than normal market correction dynamics.

Also, what do you base this on?  

Many, well-informed gurus say this all of the time.  They have mostly been wrong.

Like they say, these folks have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.

If this were a certain sort of thing those folks would be making a killing just shorting the market in general.

To say that it will drop this year and not give a very good reason(s) and a better timeframe is very, very risky.  

You cannot just 'feel' the market will drop, so you go to a lot safer things and miss out on growth and reinvested dividends and things like that.

The average person that simply puts their 401k in good funds and leaves it alone will still outgrow the folks that go to other vehicles.

The risk and potential downside is something that someone that is planning to retire early has to be even more aware of.

It can never be an all-or-nothing plan.  Maybe a portion.  But risk money and retirement money should always be separate.

Thanks guy’s.  Appreciate both of your responses. 

Went in for 20%.  My mag 7/blue chip fund.  Dow at 48,800.  Nasdaq 23400.  Account at 970 total.