Posted:
#1
currently hovering 30.16 and anticipated to break through the 30.00 floor. Over supply weakening dollar and chinas energy needs shrinking. Oil is headed to pre Iraq war levels.
today the day oil falls below 30.00
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Posts: 15
Posted:
#5
It actually did crack $30 yesterday at $29.90, but it was only for a few seconds. Buyers came in and bought heavy and brought it over $31 a barrel this morning in anticipation of the EIA oil supply report.
Last week there was a 6 million barrel draw, but it was during Christmas driving week. Today, the supply was expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels. It came in at like +0.5 million barrels, but the market didn't like the draw, and took it back down to around $30.30-$30.50 which held on pretty strong throughout the day.
Oil is finding plenty of buyers at the $30 level, but I'm skeptical. In my opinion, it has to drop to between $26-28 a barrel before it rebounds hard.
But that's just me. I'm no oil expert. I just have been following oil and natural gas closely for the past year. Lost my @ss, but learned a lot along the way.
Posted:
#6
not sure what today rings but if the indicates are right. oil should settle at 29.50. the Dow is in motion to fall to 15,970 to start the day.
all motion is in sell mode and the term market correction is starting with in most chatter.
other commodities are also falling slowly but steadily in nov gold was 1125 now its at 1080 silver went from 14 to 13 . but it isn't a major strengthening of dollar except vs euro now 1.08 buys a euro.
Fannie mae is worth half it was last year. I believe the last time all the summer of 2008. It is like everythingis bankk
Posted:
#7
I like to see if a pattern is emerging about 4:30 I look at furures and they are scary -350 -250 ect. by the time the market opens the futures negs have erased and it looks like normal even start then it moves in a plus 300 to -150 around a 500 point swing in whats volatile to end the day and restart the process again.
about a week of this so far.
Posted:
#9
saw this pattern but the market didn't reverse is opening at -300 oil is 29.50 and today is set to fall. projecting 15,200 by 4:00pm est.
kind of thou this was McCain folly when Obama stated the economy is good in the state of union. and we have been dancing a financial collapse for months now.
Posted:
#10
It seems if has two big damns to plug with the same block. Chinas market and NY market when china needs it
it pulls the block from NY and pushes it there and vice versa but it only has the one block of financials to work with. and all economic data on both sides of the ocean has been really grim as fourth quarter earnings are trickling bad news on top of worse news.
Posted:
#12
I hate how the price of oil is so fake. The March contract rollover is this week, so the price is already beginning to reflect the March contract on Monday.
So oil closed at $29 something on Friday. Due to the rollover, the price rolled back over $30 again, but it's currently down again.
So basically, the price of oil is going to be higher than it was on Friday, but if you had an equity that invests in oil, you would be down if it opened right now.
This is a result of contango that a lot of people don't understand. I didn't when I first invested in commodities last winter.
So those that invested in oil at $50 a barrel like I did won't be breaking even if it reaches $50 a barrel again. Commodities are generally meant for swing trading only and not long-term holds.
Sucks for people that want to sit on 30 a barrel and wait for it to go back up. Could take months, could take years, and the longer you hold it the more "rake" they take out of it.
Posted:
#15
Well it looks like oil bounced off the $27.50 area (the top end of my $26-28 estimate from 10 days ago).
It just crossed over $31 a barrel, and this could be confirmation of a run.
I've become a technical trader over the past year, and I'm seeing some resistance at $33 and $35 a barrel.
If this continues to run, I don't see it going any higher than 35. If it breaks 35 though, it could go wayyyyy higher.
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