Short Gasoline!

Its going to go back under $2 in very near future.  By next year this time, you will see gasoline at $1- $1.20.. 

Keep dreaming or provide rationale.

 

How do you arrive at this figure.. That's the first question.

You are suggesting either demand is going to fall off, or there are new supplies that will depress the price.  

Neither would take it to the levels you mention.  The recent shale discoveries being made in the Dakotas, TX, and Ohio Valley are predominantly gas-rich, not oil-rich.  They are adding to the oil  supply, but not enough to bring it down to the levels you mention.

 

Triple Top
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx

Very convincing argument. 

I take it you do not believe in TA-  that means you are a fundamentalist which means you completely missed out of the Bull Market these last 4 yrs being there were no sound fundamental reasoning to invest in the Dow in 08.  

.. So this must mean you are a "chartist".   Sorry, but this is akin to driving while only looking in the rear-view mirror.    Use the "charts" to support a view, but you must have a fundamental view in mind going forward, my friend.

Back to the argument of Shorting Gasoline.  You still haven't addressed the market fundamentals why they will drop off a cliff.

BTW, I have done fine since the market lows of March, 2009.  I try to follow one of Buffet's tenets, which is buy when others are fearful, and sell when others are greedy.   Guess which way I am heading now ?

I agree with you actually.   Especially on your last sentence.

Besides the triple top and a few other things in the TA's,  we right now have a lot of crude oil in our inventory.   Gasoline Prices are also actually driven more so by by taxation then any other cause.  Fed and state taxes went up on gasoline causing gasoline prices to spike up.   
So we have inventory..supply and demand - taxation- expenses(refinery- delivery etc).  

So we have increased inventory of crude oil, not to mention a deal in very close future with Iran.   The crude oil we have is also the cheaper kind,  which cuts the expenses down tremendously in the refineries converting it to gasoline.
We have Taxes at the fed and state level on gasoline that are about to be reduced.

We have Obama and Dems who want control of congress next November.  They will do anything to show the people in America that the country is on right track.. which means reducing taxes on gasoline so americans pay much less at pumps. 

I agree about trading off charts..

Wallstreet--- I agree completely with you.  

I can't prove it(well I can if you went on my facebook wall and looked back at my old posts),  but last year at about this time, i predicted that Gold and Silver would begin tanking and that we could see 1,100 in a year.  I was off by about 80 dollars an ounce.  I see Gold eventually dropping to 400 an ounce and even cheaper.. 

Here is how I see things playing out-  the economic data in america will be beating expectations from here on out all the way to November's elections.  Gas prices will drop substantially..here in Jersey, its already down to 2.83 a gallon.   The fed will taper off, Gold will get killed and conservatives will be voted out of congress.  In fact, i don't see a republican winning the white house in a very looooong time.. I see a liberal Supreme Court, a liberal white house, a liberal senate and a liberal congress this next generation.   When you see a Moderate republican like Christie have  58% of those 18-29 yrs of age vote against him, despite Christie being a "Big Kid" kind of governor,  that speaks volumes as to how far left the youth in this country is. Today's republican party is ruled by the extreme far right, which spells very gloomy and dark days for them in the future.  

Anyway back to gas--  we have huge supply of crude oil.  American and Iran on verge of a Nuclear deal which will include good price for crude oil for America.  Triple Top on the Charts is the strongest indicators of a reversal.  Spinning Doji top and engulfing black candles being the others.   

Anyway, keep your eye on it...Meanwhile, Short the hell out of Oracle Monday morning.    

By the way, the best way to make money in the stock market and you don't need to know a single thing about anything, not PE, not engulfing candles, doji tops, morning stars, cup and handles, tripe tops etc.

Short stocks that Gap Up when markets open.  Cover when stocks hit the price they closed the day before.   Most of the time, the stock retraces back to the previous day closing within the first hr of trading but if it does not, you may be holding your short for a few days...However, if the stock keeps gaping up and you have 3 straight days where it gaps up without the previous gaps being filled,  you can expect to see the stock fill all 3 gaps within 1 -2 trading days.     

So why short on ORCL?

Oracle has a Gap that has not been filled-  It def is going to retest 30!  very short term expect to see 32.20 
 look at this chart--

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=orcl+Interactive#symbol=orcl;range=5d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;



 

Wallstreet---  I don't completely disagree with you on the fundamentals part of it but as long as i know manipulation goes on, i can't focus too much on fundamentals..  In other words, if a chart shows me triple top, i am shorting it regardless of what the fundamentals are.   

I can appreciate that approach..I used to share the same..that or RSI and other technical indicators..but too often trend matters more than triple tops or the dreaded failed Hindenburg Omen etc etc..

OK, you've finally addressed something that would cause gas to drop...., but not to some $1 cataclysmic price level you earlier mentioned.  What is Iran's production, maybe 3mb/d,.. total world production is around 90mb/d.   Even if these sanctions they're talking about are taken off, that's 3mb/d added to the supply.   Big Deal.

You're a chartist, and I can't reason with someone that only looks a graph to form their analysis.

I think 1.60 or lower a gallon of unleaded is a reasonable expectation.  

But you still have not answered my question-   Give me a single SOUND fundamental reason why any human being would have invested in the Dow when it was trading at 6,600 in 08-09.    There is none.   Yet it has more then doubled.    

Ask yourself-   What caused Gasoline Prices to soar during the Carter Administration and what caused Gasoline Prices to plummet there after?  What caused Gasoline Prices to soar from .89c to over $4 in the last 4 years?  

Think about this--  Gasoline Prices have quadrupled in the last 10 yrs-  have people's wages even doubled?   NO!   In fact, not only don't Americans make more money then did 10 yrs ago, most either make less or make none at all.   Something has to give, and being tripling minimum wage to 21 dollars an hr is not going to happen,  you can expect cost of living to take a serious hit down.  

Cheap supply does not exist, the inflation of currency and general price baskets are why gas and oil have gone up like this.

Wallstreet-- i agree and disagree.  I disagree that cheap supply doesn't exist.  the rest i agree on.     

If we go back to lets say late 70's-   a regular  nice middle class home could be bought for lets say 60-80k.   Gasoline under $1.  

Today, same house is being sold for 500,000.    Gasoline $4. (well its 2.83 now here in Jersey but it was as high as 4.25).  Milk, Meat and Produce, Bread everything has gone up 4-5x.  Everything but people's wages.   Minimum wage has not even doubled while cost of living quadrupled.   
There is no chance anyone is raising minimum wage 3x-  so if wages are not going to go up, cost of living eventually will come down..I expect property values to decline from where they are now another 30-40%.    Here in Jersey,  a house that cost 250k in 1997 was being appraised at 850k in 2006.    Now its being appraised at around 600k.   Still way too high..  it has to come down another 40% minimum.    These are how i view things and by no means do I claim i am right in how I view things..i enjoy discussing things with others to see what others see that i haven't seen.  

Yes same here, I enjoy discussing things and learning different perspectives.

Michael Green a spokesman for AAA said this,   "Increased domestic crude supplies from the Bakken and Texas is dramatic, and that is impacting gasoline prices, too, said Green.“Domestic refiners have increased access to oil and they are making more gasoline,”  

So you take these fundamental facts and you add them to Triple Tops in the TA's and what you get is 1.60 a gallon or lower in near future.     

Fundamentals show a drop and TA's show a drop but what the TA's tell you that the fundamentals can't tell you is how far the drop will be--At least down to 1.60 but i think much less then even that.

 

Well, you do realize the banks were priced for extinction at those levels in 2009, right ?  If the banks go, then the U.S. economy would quickly follow.  It was a gamble the president wouldn't allow the U.S. economy to go into a Depression. 

Again, follow what I said earlier about Buffet.  He made some very profitable investments in Goldman, BofA, Wells Fargo,..  at the depths of the Great Recession .. You get the idea.   At some point, you had to use common sense and say the likelihood of it getting much worse was minimal, and proved to be true.

 

 

I don't think you realize that crude oil is a global commodity, not a domestic one.  Wall already talked about how global consumption is going up, and we use so much petroleum-based materials in our plastics, etc.

Also, How do you account for China in your prediction of gasoline plummeting to such levels.   Do you think their usage of crude oil will plummet.

To make such a prediction on gasoline, you have to ask yourself why crude oil would plummet to such levels.  It's not a very sound argument you have on your hands.