oil will rise to 50 by fall

A ever slow subtle change .25 gain in a 3 day cycle net gain per barrel as OPEC cuts delivery of the product it will pull you to sleep but gas at 2.80 by labor day and oil around 45-60 as the surpluses are diminished the shipping is being reduced 

do you think?

Researching the Baltic vxx and understanding this as well as other insurance carriers off container shipping is all very low not because shipping has gotten less dangerous but a lot of shipps can't off load and are stuck in ports around the world mainely oil tankers. Saudis can pump all they want but only so much can be held above ground. 

Iran wont cut production, Saudis wont let them enjoy higher prices and wont cut production.  Over supply, under demand.

Just filled up here in southern Maine. Gas up to 219 raised nearly 25% from a low of around 1799 40 cent jump and still in winter grade summer. Grade is more of expensive to build. But oil is another dilima hovering at 35 last I checked at Brent from a low of 23 really not sure what to make of it all.

I think oil is in a sweet spot now, and believe $40-$50 is its long-term range.  Major oil integrators will continue to scale back , as the state-run oil industries in Saudia Arabia & Iran continue to duke it out for market share.  Saudia Arabia is hell-bent on not letting Iran take market share , as it comes off sanctions and increased to 4mpbd.   U.S. part of the group scaling back, and has already dropped some 0.5mbpd so far this year. 

So, the market is still awash in oil, but I don't expect the global supply to increase significantly from here.

On the other side, global demand is weak , with Europe & China in a quandary.

Oil is nearing the mark hovering in upper 40's but the large hurricane disruption is anticipated for a month of named storms ahead. Almost time to get out the tracking machinery 60$ is closing in around Jan 31st

With all due respect.... Post# 6 and its first sentence..

 

Well fall is here oil is 80 cents a gallon for Lt sweet crude gas 2.10 heating oil is around 1,79 the below avg temps forcast for northern hemisphere. Sky the limit as oil producers looking for a profitable heating season

So Let's re-cap on the whole commodity of oil...     I think the good news for consumers is that $100 / barrel is a thing of the past, at least for the next few years.  And  You can thank the belated Aubrey McClendon for the renaissance in the oil/gas industry the  last 10 years.  It really is that significant.  The very man that helped orchestrate the movement of the 'Sonics to the OK Thunder in basketball  , is the very man that helped orchestrate the biggest renaissance in oil exploration in the last 10-20 years.  

Rest in peace Aubrey... Today's  cheap oil is due in large part to your innovative success in oil drilling techniques.   

I dont know if Aubrey without the cheap capital and heavy leverage would have done close to what the did..and it is why the stock went to as low as 1.50 when oil dropped this year.

On the Financial side of the equation, I will agree with you,  Wall.  But there is little dispute on how much impact he had on the drilling front.

The oil cartel has lost much of its clout because of this man.  This renaissance in U.S.  production led by McClendon has created U.S as a swing producer.