Of course I say no....the FED is playing a chess game on multiple levels for multiple central banks.
Yes, they have been playing this CB game for quite some time and that will continue as it has been working. If you read JPOW's statement he specifically outlines their current outlook on the two long standing mandates of "lower inflation" and "unemployment / jobs". He characterized inflation as being "tamed" and this move more precautionary for their jobs mandate. "The economy is fine" is what they always say. I wouldn't characterize the 50 bips cut due to the general "economy" but it is a reflection of what many consider a previous policy mistake. You said it yourself, "they moved too high too fast and used old theory".
Inflation is not "tamed". If history is any lesson we will be looking at inflation rates back back upwards of 8% within the next 2-3 years. Obviously a lot can happen in that time frame but the CB's will continue to play the game that has been working for them thus far. Let's see what the BOJ does rate wise here with their statement of monetary policy due out tomorrow.
It was also interesting Powell dipped his toes into the immigration discussion....
"Powell responded by indicating that the influx of immigrants has contributed to the rise in unemployment, alongside a slower hiring rate.
@wallstreetcappers
Of course I say no....the FED is playing a chess game on multiple levels for multiple central banks.
Yes, they have been playing this CB game for quite some time and that will continue as it has been working. If you read JPOW's statement he specifically outlines their current outlook on the two long standing mandates of "lower inflation" and "unemployment / jobs". He characterized inflation as being "tamed" and this move more precautionary for their jobs mandate. "The economy is fine" is what they always say. I wouldn't characterize the 50 bips cut due to the general "economy" but it is a reflection of what many consider a previous policy mistake. You said it yourself, "they moved too high too fast and used old theory".
Inflation is not "tamed". If history is any lesson we will be looking at inflation rates back back upwards of 8% within the next 2-3 years. Obviously a lot can happen in that time frame but the CB's will continue to play the game that has been working for them thus far. Let's see what the BOJ does rate wise here with their statement of monetary policy due out tomorrow.
It was also interesting Powell dipped his toes into the immigration discussion....
"Powell responded by indicating that the influx of immigrants has contributed to the rise in unemployment, alongside a slower hiring rate.
Powell said, “If you're having millions of people come into the labor force, then—and you're creating 100,000 jobs, you're going to see unemployment go up.” He noted that the increase in unemployment is partly due to the high number of people entering the country and the slower rate of job creation."
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
1
@wallstreetcappers
Of course I say no....the FED is playing a chess game on multiple levels for multiple central banks.
Yes, they have been playing this CB game for quite some time and that will continue as it has been working. If you read JPOW's statement he specifically outlines their current outlook on the two long standing mandates of "lower inflation" and "unemployment / jobs". He characterized inflation as being "tamed" and this move more precautionary for their jobs mandate. "The economy is fine" is what they always say. I wouldn't characterize the 50 bips cut due to the general "economy" but it is a reflection of what many consider a previous policy mistake. You said it yourself, "they moved too high too fast and used old theory".
Inflation is not "tamed". If history is any lesson we will be looking at inflation rates back back upwards of 8% within the next 2-3 years. Obviously a lot can happen in that time frame but the CB's will continue to play the game that has been working for them thus far. Let's see what the BOJ does rate wise here with their statement of monetary policy due out tomorrow.
It was also interesting Powell dipped his toes into the immigration discussion....
"Powell responded by indicating that the influx of immigrants has contributed to the rise in unemployment, alongside a slower hiring rate.
@wallstreetcappers
Of course I say no....the FED is playing a chess game on multiple levels for multiple central banks.
Yes, they have been playing this CB game for quite some time and that will continue as it has been working. If you read JPOW's statement he specifically outlines their current outlook on the two long standing mandates of "lower inflation" and "unemployment / jobs". He characterized inflation as being "tamed" and this move more precautionary for their jobs mandate. "The economy is fine" is what they always say. I wouldn't characterize the 50 bips cut due to the general "economy" but it is a reflection of what many consider a previous policy mistake. You said it yourself, "they moved too high too fast and used old theory".
Inflation is not "tamed". If history is any lesson we will be looking at inflation rates back back upwards of 8% within the next 2-3 years. Obviously a lot can happen in that time frame but the CB's will continue to play the game that has been working for them thus far. Let's see what the BOJ does rate wise here with their statement of monetary policy due out tomorrow.
It was also interesting Powell dipped his toes into the immigration discussion....
"Powell responded by indicating that the influx of immigrants has contributed to the rise in unemployment, alongside a slower hiring rate.
Powell said, “If you're having millions of people come into the labor force, then—and you're creating 100,000 jobs, you're going to see unemployment go up.” He noted that the increase in unemployment is partly due to the high number of people entering the country and the slower rate of job creation."
Nah I stick with my thesis and I gave my reasons why. The jobs market alone does not justify a 50bps move. Look at the FRED chart on government interest payments and there is a better answer. The FED to me tried to hammer inflation out by raising rates hot and fast, too high and they thought they could make the splash and then ease out when inflation quickly exited. They were wrong in their blunt tool usage, this isnt Volcker era, the economy is more complex and banks are not taking FED cash, lending and so on and so on, the money multiplier that worked for Volcker did not work for ANY of the FED dopes for the last 20 years. They tried expanding policy to raise inflation, that failed, they tried choking monetary policy to end inflation quickly, that failed.
The problem is the FED has blunt tools that are exploited by capitalist banks and private equity/hedgies/HFT firms all sorts of outfits slurp off FED funds and exploit the outdated, ineffective tools they have. They had to reverse course because it was harming governments (plural) and the USD was too hot, their experiment was very damaging and they have little to no tools to impact inflation or employment outside the margin.
Listening to the JP spin does not mean what he is selling is the truth OR accurate. If rates were at 2% would the FED have cut 50bps due to the current job market? Of course not.
0
@kcblitzkrieg
Nah I stick with my thesis and I gave my reasons why. The jobs market alone does not justify a 50bps move. Look at the FRED chart on government interest payments and there is a better answer. The FED to me tried to hammer inflation out by raising rates hot and fast, too high and they thought they could make the splash and then ease out when inflation quickly exited. They were wrong in their blunt tool usage, this isnt Volcker era, the economy is more complex and banks are not taking FED cash, lending and so on and so on, the money multiplier that worked for Volcker did not work for ANY of the FED dopes for the last 20 years. They tried expanding policy to raise inflation, that failed, they tried choking monetary policy to end inflation quickly, that failed.
The problem is the FED has blunt tools that are exploited by capitalist banks and private equity/hedgies/HFT firms all sorts of outfits slurp off FED funds and exploit the outdated, ineffective tools they have. They had to reverse course because it was harming governments (plural) and the USD was too hot, their experiment was very damaging and they have little to no tools to impact inflation or employment outside the margin.
Listening to the JP spin does not mean what he is selling is the truth OR accurate. If rates were at 2% would the FED have cut 50bps due to the current job market? Of course not.
JPOW nor I ever said it has to do with "the job markets alone". It was very clearly stated. There has been ONE DUAL mandate. Inflation and jobs. JPOW ruled out inflation and specifically said JOBS. Now I agree with you that it is not "job market alone" but to completely dismiss it without the acknowledgment of this simple clearly stated fact is just silly.
I agree with you on everything else you stated above.
You also skipped over the entire JPOW bit on immigration influences. Why did you do this?
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
2
JPOW nor I ever said it has to do with "the job markets alone". It was very clearly stated. There has been ONE DUAL mandate. Inflation and jobs. JPOW ruled out inflation and specifically said JOBS. Now I agree with you that it is not "job market alone" but to completely dismiss it without the acknowledgment of this simple clearly stated fact is just silly.
I agree with you on everything else you stated above.
You also skipped over the entire JPOW bit on immigration influences. Why did you do this?
Because JP is not in the government, I really spend zero time listening to anything these guys say, they are all crooked bots IMO..ever since Greenspam I've tuned them out and I am better for it. JP has few tools and the FED does a poor job at all of their mandates, the mandate of most value that is not discussed is their dreaded lack of control over the leveraged capitalist mega banks. The fact the FED allows and blesses the way banks exploit FED funds and overnight REPOS to me means they have zero mandates and zero added value to the economy. I think their mandates are on paper the inflation and jobs, well they suck at those mandates so what good are they if their tools have so little impact?
Their mandates that are both unstated and under analyzed are to facilitate big banks, to support the global FED cabal and to retain control over monetary policy. Those are their real mandates, the other stuff is rice paper garbage. Big banks control the FED, their value to the economy is misguided, dishonest and deceptive.
0
@kcblitzkrieg
Because JP is not in the government, I really spend zero time listening to anything these guys say, they are all crooked bots IMO..ever since Greenspam I've tuned them out and I am better for it. JP has few tools and the FED does a poor job at all of their mandates, the mandate of most value that is not discussed is their dreaded lack of control over the leveraged capitalist mega banks. The fact the FED allows and blesses the way banks exploit FED funds and overnight REPOS to me means they have zero mandates and zero added value to the economy. I think their mandates are on paper the inflation and jobs, well they suck at those mandates so what good are they if their tools have so little impact?
Their mandates that are both unstated and under analyzed are to facilitate big banks, to support the global FED cabal and to retain control over monetary policy. Those are their real mandates, the other stuff is rice paper garbage. Big banks control the FED, their value to the economy is misguided, dishonest and deceptive.
@BigGame90 Grabbed a bunch of FAS just now. I have been building this position for a while. It is a financial services 3X leveraged ETF for financial services. I think that sector jumps next few days or weeks after the FED cut — especially if they lower a half point. I have also been building some option positions in some of the banks and financial sector-type equities. A lot of it is baked into it already it seems. But I think there is a good likelihood of some 'overreaction' in this sector for a bit. It should be a very interesting day for sure.
Big jump far FAS today. I am not sure if you kept an eye on this or not.
Since we talked about it FAS is now up 24% and SPY is up 5%.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the FED meeting tomorrow. I think a 25 cut is baked in. I still expect this to continue to rally through at least the 1st quarter.
I have solid stops in place to lock in profits.
But is does look very much like this sector will be one that will continue to rally for some time.
1
@BigGame90
@Raiders22
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
@BigGame90 Grabbed a bunch of FAS just now. I have been building this position for a while. It is a financial services 3X leveraged ETF for financial services. I think that sector jumps next few days or weeks after the FED cut — especially if they lower a half point. I have also been building some option positions in some of the banks and financial sector-type equities. A lot of it is baked into it already it seems. But I think there is a good likelihood of some 'overreaction' in this sector for a bit. It should be a very interesting day for sure.
Big jump far FAS today. I am not sure if you kept an eye on this or not.
Since we talked about it FAS is now up 24% and SPY is up 5%.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the FED meeting tomorrow. I think a 25 cut is baked in. I still expect this to continue to rally through at least the 1st quarter.
I have solid stops in place to lock in profits.
But is does look very much like this sector will be one that will continue to rally for some time.
It sure will be interesting. Always fascinating when the accountant resigns over financial statements and integrity. But hey, maybe the books weren't cooked, right?
0
@Raiders22
It sure will be interesting. Always fascinating when the accountant resigns over financial statements and integrity. But hey, maybe the books weren't cooked, right?
Is the sector going to run, or has it already ran? I guess that's the ultimate question. If it's already ran, did it run because of cooked books?
Keeping an eye and waiting for Jpow to bring the volatility. Will be playing the opposite of the first big move and will get in and out quick as there will likely be multiple big moves quickly.
0
@Raiders22
Is the sector going to run, or has it already ran? I guess that's the ultimate question. If it's already ran, did it run because of cooked books?
Keeping an eye and waiting for Jpow to bring the volatility. Will be playing the opposite of the first big move and will get in and out quick as there will likely be multiple big moves quickly.
@BigGame90 Some of these nuts asking the questions I think are trying to manipulate the market. Ask him a question knowing he has to use the words 'stong' 'weak' 'healthy' 'expected' etc. Now she asking him about resigning!
Some of the questions are kind of ridiculous. They do try to twist questions to get him to give up more info. I do believe I'm seeing him actively trying to hold back and stick to the main talking points. I feel like the 2% target is getting used less because it's not going to happen anytime soon.
"No" "No"
0
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
@BigGame90 Some of these nuts asking the questions I think are trying to manipulate the market. Ask him a question knowing he has to use the words 'stong' 'weak' 'healthy' 'expected' etc. Now she asking him about resigning!
Some of the questions are kind of ridiculous. They do try to twist questions to get him to give up more info. I do believe I'm seeing him actively trying to hold back and stick to the main talking points. I feel like the 2% target is getting used less because it's not going to happen anytime soon.
Big chance for today to have some good opportunities right after lunch until close.
Also do not know if you have kept up with FAS or not since back then.
Since then FAS is up +23.7% and SPY is up +6.7%.
I look for this to continue for a bit more. I think everything I said before the previous cuts applies now. The play was initially anticipating three cuts and it looks like we will see that. So, I look for this sector to still outperform the overall market going into the new year. I have also been adding chunks to SOFI positions (I have the stock and far out options) for this reason and because of their niche and novel moves.
0
@BigGame90
Big chance for today to have some good opportunities right after lunch until close.
Also do not know if you have kept up with FAS or not since back then.
Since then FAS is up +23.7% and SPY is up +6.7%.
I look for this to continue for a bit more. I think everything I said before the previous cuts applies now. The play was initially anticipating three cuts and it looks like we will see that. So, I look for this sector to still outperform the overall market going into the new year. I have also been adding chunks to SOFI positions (I have the stock and far out options) for this reason and because of their niche and novel moves.
what are you playing today? I might sit today out as I'll be busy and might not be able to watch/listen. I played some tsla calls early in the week and had a nice 1.25x return on some calls but didn't want to hold them going into this afternoon.
0
@Raiders22
what are you playing today? I might sit today out as I'll be busy and might not be able to watch/listen. I played some tsla calls early in the week and had a nice 1.25x return on some calls but didn't want to hold them going into this afternoon.
I will start small with QQQ, SPY puts and then see how it spikes.
Good for you!
Yeah, I unloaded TSLA after 458ish hit because that was a key number for me. Wish I had held while it blew past that. So, now will wait and see if it bounce back near there.
Right before 11:00 I loaded up on SOFI and SMCI calls also. I think those have great potential today and maybe will hold a day or two.
See what Uncle Jerome has to say...
0
@BigGame90
I will start small with QQQ, SPY puts and then see how it spikes.
Good for you!
Yeah, I unloaded TSLA after 458ish hit because that was a key number for me. Wish I had held while it blew past that. So, now will wait and see if it bounce back near there.
Right before 11:00 I loaded up on SOFI and SMCI calls also. I think those have great potential today and maybe will hold a day or two.
Going to cut .25 which is odd. If the economy is doing as well as we've been gaslit to believe, fed wouldn't need to cut rates to stimulate the economy. Seems like we're being told/shown one thing when the opposite is really happening. I think you might be right with the puts today. Either way, it's likely going to spike up and down so you should be able to get in and out with profit on both ends, buying the dip and selling the rip.
0
@Raiders22
Going to cut .25 which is odd. If the economy is doing as well as we've been gaslit to believe, fed wouldn't need to cut rates to stimulate the economy. Seems like we're being told/shown one thing when the opposite is really happening. I think you might be right with the puts today. Either way, it's likely going to spike up and down so you should be able to get in and out with profit on both ends, buying the dip and selling the rip.
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Will be playing the opposite of the first big move and will get in and out quick as there will likely be multiple big moves quickly. 
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