Crypto thread

Goldman Sachs predicts 2.25 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims this week, the highest on record 

What’s priced in is a shutdown like we’re seeing for 30 days. What is not priced in is that our 30 day shutdown will not be nearly as effective as the shutdown the Chinese implemented. So our shutdown will then get extended for another 30-60 days. This will create another massive drop. 

Businesses that require large groups of people being close to each might as well just file for bankruptcy now. Cruises, hotels, arenas, airlines, casinos, sports gambling, restaurants, clubs, theme parks, movie theaters, museums, and whatever else you can think of. 

I don’t think unemployment, people defaulting on loans, and that entire area has been priced in correctly yet. 

I wouldn’t let these days of green candles get your hopes up. We’re going much lower. 

Bitcoin, gold and these markets? I’m not sure of the exact timing when we’ll switch from deflation to inflation but that’s coming a lot sooner. 

I would short these big pumps on MGM, PENN etc 

For reference:

PENN 10.02 

MGM 10.00 

That industry is in more trouble than just about any. They need big crowds and customers willing to throw money away. It’s going to be a long 18 months for them. 

MGM was $90 towards the end of 07 and fell to $3.50 in 09. MGM had a high of $32 before the recent drop. I don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t visit the $3.50 range again. 

Federal Reserve says it will conduct $1 trillion in daily repo operations for the rest of the month 

I dont think the FED is going to be willing to buy the toxic shale and oil debt that is needed globally to stem the problem as long as oil stays this low which the Russians know and they probably will keep playing chicken and their goal is to KO our industry and I dont blame them.

CME says Ronin Capital unable to meet capital requirements 

Most recent filing for Ronin I could find was $15 billion in 2015. Probably more than that now. Not Lehman but nothing to sneeze at. 

Out of Tether, back in BTC ($6,260). 

Closing shorts on PENN ($7.66) and MGM ($9.26). 

Where do I collect my money? 

Wall, 

What happens if the Fed isn’t willing to buy shale and oil debt? 

Coronavirus update: 

Total deaths - 230 

Currently serious/critical: 64 

The only people dying are 85 years old, cancer, and on an oxygen tank besides a few outliers. 

H1N1 2009 CDC estimates:

60.8 million cases

274,000 hospitalizations

12,500 deaths 

OK Detox. I funded my account and bought something like .016 BTC as a test run on RH. It took literally 5 seconds. 

Seems too easy. Not sure I am feeling confident moving 6k into this considering I'm only tracking the price and would be depending on RH to pay me in the end game.

If RH is legit though this seems like the way to go.

Yeah, you’re fine. I wouldn’t worry about it. The only thing to worry about is them going under and exit scamming with peoples funds and the chances of that are pretty slim. They have something like 12 million users. 

I always come out of Tether too early. I have weak hands there because I’m naturally bullish on bitcoin. 

Yeah, I saw that..  Our first victim of a Volatility bet gone wrong.  

If you read the ZH article about that fund, the liquidation happened this morning and is done.

I dont see how the FED will buy low rated stuff, they said it has to be A rated and the A rated stuff isnt the issue...so how could the FED and thus the Treasury take the risk buying garbage junk debt?

If you saw the drop in oil and the market late then that tells you that this issue is not fixed and the liquidity is not going to solve the real issue. The issues are that this virus hasnt peaked here yet and the corporate debt issue is in its INFANCY....there has not been any casualties yet, no oil firm has gone under so there is more to go.

Peter Schiff: 

“The coronavirus will be the scapegoat. The US economy was headed for a crash anyway due to the incompetent and reckless monetary and fiscal policies of the past. Now the coronavirus will be the excuse to more aggressively pursue those same failed policies in the future.” 

Futures hit limit down within the first five minutes of being open 

In the past 2 weeks, more people in the US have lost their jobs than in the entire 2008-2010 recession. 

And this has just started. 

Do not think that is correct. I should have known to look deeper when reading a fear mongering liberal rag. 

Anyways, the economic impact will be far  worse than this coronavirus scam.

So far there have been 5 deaths in Massachusetts. Average age: 79 years old.  

In 2008, the flight to safety began towards the end of September. Towards then end of October, gold stopped dropping and became stable. In mid November, gold started to rise, while the SP 500 continued to fall. 

In 2020, the flight to safety began towards the end of February. 

Dow futures swing to +300 as The Fed launches QE infinity 

So the fed announces that they’ll be buying student loans, credit card, auto, and small business loan securities. 

Why? Because their banker friends who issued the loans would go bust. 

What about mortgages? 

Oh, yep. Of course they’re buying mortgage backed securities. What was I thinking. $35 billion worth this week alone.