Consider Argentina

I am suggesting folks that are interested look into investing in the boom in the Argentinean economic turnaround and growth.

I do not know how many people know much about their economic history.  But they used to have one of the best GDP per capita in the world.  They have great natural resources and economic ability to trade internationally.

They have had a long bout with very high inflation due to various factors.  

In the late 90s and early 2000s the economic policies in place spiraled them into a mess that caused a lot of this.

They had a poverty rate of over 50% and an annual inflation rate over 140%.

Then the election of Javier Milei at the end of last year has turned things around.  He is a right-wing Libertarian.  He has a background in Economics.

Without going into vast detail about their past and the ills of their economy history that was once great and dropped off tremendously — I am just going to point out that there has been a very nice and quick turnaround in their economy.

Inflation has been down 6 months in a row.  It is now 2.7% and was over 25% in December when Milei took office.

The government is now running a surplus instead of a deficit.

The Central Bank has cut their rate by over 90 points.  They still have a very high rate of 35%.  But even now this has spurred a huge jump in private-sector credit and investments.

The bottom line is that the government deregulation policies and the tax policies have turned their economy around.  They have also done some other monetary and fiscal things that have helped.

With the IMF, the USA, and Trump going in office — I think it will only continue to grow their economy.  Trump will obviously do some of the same things as he did before and since they have some of the same mindset I think this will only benefit Argentina.

I say all of this to point out that a lot of ‘emerging markets’ type funds will already have some limited exposure to Latin American Countries and, therefore, Argentina.

But I would consider a position in ARGT.  This is an ETF that concentrates on Argentina.

The 52 week range is 48.47 - 86.749.  It currently is right around 85.  

I started a very small position at the beginning of the year.  Milei was inaugurated in December.

I have slowly increased my position and will be adding on any dips.  

I am considering making this a quite sizable position soon.

I am suggesting, again, that anyone that does this type of investing consider it.  Maybe buy some on the dips.  Or just get a small position.

Like I said, if you have any ‘emerging market’ vehicles, you will have slight exposure already.

I do not think this is too high to buy now, even though it has had a significant and steady rise all year.

I think with the policies they have put in place and the significant improvement in the numbers I mentioned along with a lot of other nuanced numbers, that this has a much higher potential.

Raiders... a good read as usual,  but this thing is trading near its 52 week high.  I hate these types of situations.   This tells me your argument has already been processed by investors....  We are behind the curve now.  

I would rather find the diamond in the rough that everyone has thrown away for dead, trading near 52 week lows.. 

We need to be patient and find companies that everyone hates, but has good business prospects.    

Eg. I have never invested in INTC before , but I started a very small position  ( 1/3 my normal investment size), as a flier just last week.  Their CEO just stepped down, and the board just hired 2 new members w a Semiconductor background.   This is a small step in the right direction, given before a board that was a floundering bunch of non-tech empties.  Being from the tech industry myself,  I know better that you need to have ( tech)  individuals that have a vision and where they want to take the company.   They are so far behind the AI race, but I'm willing to take a small flier on a new direction.. 

Entry point is key... this is a company at multi- year lows... expectations are low

@Rush51

 Good points.  

I think there is plenty of room for them to continue up.  They have been depressed for far too long.

I look at these slightly different than stocks.  For example, I also have a position in YINN (China) and BRZU (Brazil) for various other reasons.  

YINN is down to around a year-low and BRZU is about midway down from a year-high.

BUT ARGT I think is well positioned to continue and follow the trend.  

A lot of these 'emerging markets' are lagging the USA and some are settling for a further post-pandemic move still.  So, like I said, if you have exposure to those markets that way that might be fine.

I do not have INTC as a stock.  But I can make the argument that their price is where it is for very good reasons.  But I see why some folks are thinking it has 'bottomed'.

But once some stocks reach a certain point and has certain criteria going for it -- the case can be made that it is time to 'join the trend'; whether that is a trend up or down.

I think ARGT has met most of the criteria to say it is not too late to 'join the trend'.

But for sure there are some stocks to find that are bottomed out.

However, I treat ETFs and commodity sectors, etc. very different than I do single stocks.

But with anything I think you can set a good stop in place or even a trailing stop and join the trend that I expect to go up for quite some time.

There are many good detailed articles and research on this you can look into that support my thinking on this.

There are times to try and pick a single stock that is ready to finally make a run.  But it is far easier to find whole markets, sectors, or countries that are ready to make a run.

For example, instead of picking just INTC -- it might be better to simply stay in an ETF that includes them.  That way you have the stocks in that sector that will carry INTC if you are wrong or it takes too long to make a run.

But good luck with INTC if you get it.  For sure, a rising tide lifts all boats.

@Rush51

 A couple of things I would add.  Two old adages apply here I think.

You want to 'short' weak stocks and 'buy' strong stocks.

The trend is your friend until it bends.

I think both of these apply to INTC and ARGT here.  Timing the turnaround for a bottoming stock can be dicey and predicting the top for a whole sector or country is even harder.

I know you say your INTC was a starter position.  I may look into them further and maybe join you even though I am loaded up in other tech stocks and SMH along with several 'startup' AI that have made great strides this year.  So, I just have seen better 'value' in other chip and AI-type stocks.

But I know they have been considered a takeover type stock for a bit.  Qualcomm considered it for a bit.

So, maybe they might be in a good spot to recover.

Raiders...a great read as usual..  I personally hope the ARGT position works for you, and there may be a lot of further upside as you suggest.  I love their new president, and what he is setting out to do, so we may be in the beginning innings of a huge change for the country and their economic prospects.  You will be a big beneficiary in that ETF if this all plays out...  I just looked at an emerging market ETF I already own (EXMC) to see if it had any exposure to Argentina.  Disappointingly, it doesn't have any, but keep us updated how this plays out.  

Regarding INTC, I put into my same bucket as PFE which I bought about a year ago.  Both of these companies are "bottom-feeders" that are really looking for a catalyst to get going again.  In INTC's case, I think the turnaround is far more difficult to pull-off (and I wouldn't even call PFE a turnaround story), which is why I only invested 1/3 of a usual starting position in INTC.   They are really behind the curve in the technology arena, and it is a sad comment to make for a company that was critical in CPU chip design/architecture in the 20th and early 21st century.    In technology, perhaps more than any other market sector, it is critical to have a great CEO that has a clear goal on where they want to take the company.  In INTC's case, there have missteps for well over a decade, at least.  They are in need of that great CEO that has a great plan,... and can execute it.  

I may have been a little early on this one, and gambled a bit more than usual on a stock pick since we still don't know who that permanent CEO will be.  (I liked the move of bringing on board 2 tech members to the Board, so I'm banking they can get the right guy).    I think there is still a bit of "tax-loss harvesting" going on in the stock right now, so I'd tread carefully as we may see continued pressure for the remainder of the month.  

@Rush51

Better to be early than late or not at all.  I will keep a close eye on INTC.