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August/Sept Stock Talk

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Posted: #76
I think it may be possible that the usual September swoon occurred early. Given that so many people know of that trend, and adding in the fact that a lot of good securities were dumped in panic during August, I wonder if this does not set up a possible "October in September."

  Does anyone know if there is empirical proof to the widespread thought that the three most profitable consecutive months of the market year are Oct-Nov-Dec?

 I  do hope at least a temporary rising tide lifts that CMC options boat of mine as well. I looked at it again today...inching upwards mercifully. I have mentally written them off so if they cash, it will just be lagniappe for me.
 
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Posted: #77
WSC-
 
Is today just part of the "head fake" the big money houses are doing to the average retail little guy before slamming the living hell out of this market?
 
I think so, but want to hear your opinion.  I can see the little guy dipping his toe in the water a little by maybe upping his 401 payroll draw, maybe a little juice the IRA, maybe even a few bucks on his employee stock purchase plan......and then KABOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
What I do know for a fact is this......BIG MONEY, and I mean the BIG MONEY from Merrill, Goldman, etc....ain't coming near this market until there is blood in the streets from a vicious shake-out.  Now does this vicious shake-out happen this year???  I don't know, but if there is no shake-out resulting from some pretty horrific confessions about to be made, this broad market will tread water and trade sideways for a long time.
 
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Posted: #78
claycourt,

Either that or they have to chase which means they really run it up into the end of the year. No guarantee they go lower, but I feel that will happen, we will go lower first.

It is a big risk guessing when that time comes but I am going to try..if thing shape up tomorrow there will be some good entry shorts out there, mainly TECH and energy..the lenders havent moved much, still pessimism out there..
 
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Posted: #79
People need to tread cautiously here. I can't see much sense in making a strong bet either way at this moment. The decision(s) regarding the Fed cut(s) are crucial in setting the tone:the numbers really tank if they do NOT cut at this point, no doubt?
 
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Posted: #80
its obvious bernanke will not cut. if the market keeps up like this. remember the key element for the fed is inflation they dont want to lower the rate only way they will is if the market tanks and right now the market looks pretty good but with 13 days till sept 18 alot could still happen but if the market continues to hold up i recommend buying the sds and all the short proshares as there will be no cut and the market will tank for about 1000 pts.
 
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Posted: #81
hey guys, i've been lurking around for a while and enjoyed all the great insight and advice from many of you.  I'm new to the stock market and currently own a few stocks that i wanted your opinions on. I currently own a little bit of Kraft which i recieved through the spinoff from Altria that i'm looking to sell sometime today, I own some gold through Golden Star Resoureces that i've been burned with and don't know if i should just cut my losses and i also own some WuXi pharmaceuticals which i got when it IPO'd at about 18.75  They have a conference call tomorrow morning and was hoping to add to my position before it.  Thank you for any advice or comments you all may have...
 
         -just trying to learn something and make a buck while at it...
 
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Posted: #82
"If the market keeps up like this" is the key modifier in your post.

 We are just starting to see the playing out of the financial ramifications of the subprime mess.I do not think anything is obvious regarding Bernanke.People are still getting a feel for what he thinks, and what he may or may not do is entirely up in the air. Like you, I agree that the market will tank if he does NOT cut, but I am in no way convinced that he will refuse to cut, particularly if he sees the market overwhelming his fears of inflation.

 Ask yourself, do you believe that this economy is roaring into inflation, or cooling off a lot more rapidly than people expected?

 Personally, I think the decline in consumer spending and employment is vastly understated.Throw in the fact that M and A activity more than likely will be considerably down, and you have two pretty serious elements that propped up the market being seriously degraded.
 
 
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Posted: #83
PS: If you are just starting out, I would keep this fact in mind:

 Jeremy Siegel (finance prof at Wharton) determined that from 1871-2003, a full 97% of the stock market's return came from reinvested dividends -- only 3% was from capital gains on the original principal.
 
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Posted: #84
cfc cutting 10k jobs...of thinking about it

nationalmortgagenews.com

my buddy's COF short is working nicely although he's thinking about covering today although i dont know why

any of you own SRS? powershares ultra short real estate ETF
 
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Posted: #85
vermeer, I've read similar stuff with the reinvested dividends....
 
Today..i'm looking at a buy/write on SUF.  Nice premiums on on the sept 7.50's.  Also looking at SHFL again, burned me before but if i keep chasing it I cant lose right? LOL. 
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

cfc cutting 10k jobs...of thinking about it

nationalmortgagenews.com

my buddy's COF short is working nicely although he's thinking about covering today although i dont know why

any of you own SRS? powershares ultra short real estate ETF


 Not me just a slug of SKF...sure wish I did though...

Not to be an alarmist, but should anyone be making big bets on the market before September 11?
 
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Posted: #87
Koaj,

That SRS looks good..pretty big range for the year on an ETF!

I would prefer SRS to SKF though (directed to Vermeer).

Look at certain stocks though, today is financials..some energy and plenty of tech is actually UP today.

To me it means either tech will fall LATER or not at all..but one day trading does not mean a trend of course.

 
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Posted: #88
WS, you ever look at JCOM?  Any thoughts?  Looks like a pretty good one to me.
 
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Posted: #89
Grinder,

yeah I think JCOM has been discussed here before. It looks like a mature company, steady revenues.

Problem is that based on price to sales and book the stock is not on sale by any means. Earnings growth looks alright but I just dont see a ton of sizzle based on current price and data.

What do you think?
 
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Posted: #90
THIS

Stock looks interesting..just scratched the surface on the application but it looks pretty cool and COULD have a big impact on the market it represents.

Any comments??
 
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Posted: #91
vermeer 9/11 means nothing to the mkts this year...i hope

9/18 is a bigger day (fed meeting)

wall - tech is VERY VERY STRONG...ive been writing that for a few weeks in here

they have: tons of cash, very little consumer exposure, and tons of overseas sales (currency conversion big +)

csco is #1 right now...i missed my opp below 30 two weeks ago
 
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Posted: #92
web portals are nice also...YHOO, GOOG (although i think yahoo is a turd...IMO its cheap right here (24 or so))

check AMZN, EBAY...very strong
 
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Posted: #93
Koaj,

When I saw that they bot Scientific Atlanta that was the time to load the boat. The driver of their growth is expanding their product base, and SFA was the leader of the set top box group, it was an awesome buy for CSCO.

You mad about CSCO? How about me mentioning JNPR around 14 last year? Or even HLIT? Both have larger moves than CSCO..



JNPR printing new highs as the market is still getting hit.

 
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Posted: #94
AMZN had good news today, I think Ebay IS a turd..their growth rate is really slowing and they havent been able to turn Skype or other buys into revenue growers which is hurting them.

Out of the group I would prefer AMZN then GOOG then YHOO and then EBAY.


 
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Posted: #95
I dont think it has a lot of sizzle but I think it will steadily go upwards into a long term winner.  It seems to keep pluging along and never really gets hit to hard.   
 
How do you make out the chart on LEAP?  I thought i missed out when it tanked from 90-60 and now back to mid 80's?  What the hells goin on and how do we make money of this thing.
 
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Posted: #96
Grinder,

They just got a buyout offer, lower than the current price which means the market thinks another offer comes in.

Barring a drop of the offer, the downside play is OUT for LEAP..the offer price is a floor for sure..no value in going against the stock now..  
 
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Posted: #97
AAPL got nailed hard when the EU announced they are going after the company for price gouging..


 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Koaj,

When I saw that they bot Scientific Atlanta that was the time to load the boat. The driver of their growth is expanding their product base, and SFA was the leader of the set top box group, it was an awesome buy for CSCO.

You mad about CSCO? How about me mentioning JNPR around 14 last year? Or even HLIT? Both have larger moves than CSCO..



JNPR printing new highs as the market is still getting hit.



true but csco isnt a big mover anyway so any buying opp has to be taken, especially now when i'm mostly cash

grinder - beware buying anything b/c of buyout rumors...chances are these days, the financiang wont come in or it will be lower than expected (see HD from last week)


 
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Posted: #99
Koaj,

Grinder was actually thinking of cycle shorting it or buying puts.

The buyout offer was a friendly offer and is below the current price of the stock.

I think LEAP does get bought out though...
 
 
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Posted: #100
Anyone want to buy 10 IDMI sept 2.50's calls from me?  I cant find any takers at .10.  Trying to grind out a few bucks today. 
 
Yeah, I was bearish on leap but wont even bother looking at it anymore now. 
 
Got a limit order in on buy/write SUF with the sept 7.50 for debit of 6.30. 
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