August/Sept Stock Talk

I think it may be possible that the usual September swoon occurred early. Given that so many people know of that trend, and adding in the fact that a lot of good securities were dumped in panic during August, I wonder if this does not set up a possible "October in September."

  Does anyone know if there is empirical proof to the widespread thought that the three most profitable consecutive months of the market year are Oct-Nov-Dec?

 I  do hope at least a temporary rising tide lifts that CMC options boat of mine as well. I looked at it again today...inching upwards mercifully. I have mentally written them off so if they cash, it will just be lagniappe for me.

claycourt,

Either that or they have to chase which means they really run it up into the end of the year. No guarantee they go lower, but I feel that will happen, we will go lower first.

It is a big risk guessing when that time comes but I am going to try..if thing shape up tomorrow there will be some good entry shorts out there, mainly TECH and energy..the lenders havent moved much, still pessimism out there..

People need to tread cautiously here. I can't see much sense in making a strong bet either way at this moment. The decision(s) regarding the Fed cut(s) are crucial in setting the tone:the numbers really tank if they do NOT cut at this point, no doubt?

"If the market keeps up like this" is the key modifier in your post.

 We are just starting to see the playing out of the financial ramifications of the subprime mess.I do not think anything is obvious regarding Bernanke.People are still getting a feel for what he thinks, and what he may or may not do is entirely up in the air. Like you, I agree that the market will tank if he does NOT cut, but I am in no way convinced that he will refuse to cut, particularly if he sees the market overwhelming his fears of inflation.

 Ask yourself, do you believe that this economy is roaring into inflation, or cooling off a lot more rapidly than people expected?

 Personally, I think the decline in consumer spending and employment is vastly understated.Throw in the fact that M and A activity more than likely will be considerably down, and you have two pretty serious elements that propped up the market being seriously degraded.
 

PS: If you are just starting out, I would keep this fact in mind:

 Jeremy Siegel (finance prof at Wharton) determined that from 1871-2003, a full 97% of the stock market's return came from reinvested dividends -- only 3% was from capital gains on the original principal.

cfc cutting 10k jobs...of thinking about it

nationalmortgagenews.com

my buddy's COF short is working nicely although he's thinking about covering today although i dont know why

any of you own SRS? powershares ultra short real estate ETF

 Not me just a slug of SKF...sure wish I did though...

Not to be an alarmist, but should anyone be making big bets on the market before September 11?

Koaj,

That SRS looks good..pretty big range for the year on an ETF!

I would prefer SRS to SKF though (directed to Vermeer).

Look at certain stocks though, today is financials..some energy and plenty of tech is actually UP today.

To me it means either tech will fall LATER or not at all..but one day trading does not mean a trend of course.

Grinder,

yeah I think JCOM has been discussed here before. It looks like a mature company, steady revenues.

Problem is that based on price to sales and book the stock is not on sale by any means. Earnings growth looks alright but I just dont see a ton of sizzle based on current price and data.

What do you think?

THIS

Stock looks interesting..just scratched the surface on the application but it looks pretty cool and COULD have a big impact on the market it represents.

Any comments??

vermeer 9/11 means nothing to the mkts this year...i hope

9/18 is a bigger day (fed meeting)

wall - tech is VERY VERY STRONG...ive been writing that for a few weeks in here

they have: tons of cash, very little consumer exposure, and tons of overseas sales (currency conversion big +)

csco is #1 right now...i missed my opp below 30 two weeks ago

web portals are nice also...YHOO, GOOG (although i think yahoo is a turd...IMO its cheap right here (24 or so))

check AMZN, EBAY...very strong

Koaj,

When I saw that they bot Scientific Atlanta that was the time to load the boat. The driver of their growth is expanding their product base, and SFA was the leader of the set top box group, it was an awesome buy for CSCO.

You mad about CSCO? How about me mentioning JNPR around 14 last year? Or even HLIT? Both have larger moves than CSCO..



JNPR printing new highs as the market is still getting hit.

AMZN had good news today, I think Ebay IS a turd..their growth rate is really slowing and they havent been able to turn Skype or other buys into revenue growers which is hurting them.

Out of the group I would prefer AMZN then GOOG then YHOO and then EBAY.

Grinder,

They just got a buyout offer, lower than the current price which means the market thinks another offer comes in.

Barring a drop of the offer, the downside play is OUT for LEAP..the offer price is a floor for sure..no value in going against the stock now..  

AAPL got nailed hard when the EU announced they are going after the company for price gouging..

true but csco isnt a big mover anyway so any buying opp has to be taken, especially now when i'm mostly cash

grinder - beware buying anything b/c of buyout rumors...chances are these days, the financiang wont come in or it will be lower than expected (see HD from last week)

Koaj,

Grinder was actually thinking of cycle shorting it or buying puts.

The buyout offer was a friendly offer and is below the current price of the stock.

I think LEAP does get bought out though...