I'll be playing from home again this year. I refuse to pay $580 per seat at Ten Palms overlooking the track or pay $16 for a freaking Heineken. Good to see Mike Smith, Frankie Dettori & Florent Geroux at Gulfstream.
We have a real nice racing card starting at 10:50 EST & weather looks good right now but brief showers can pop up anytime.
Looking forward to your insight in this race. A few horses that stick out for me:
#3 Atone. At 12-1 gotta put him in play. He's a live longshot here. Should be used to Gulfstream as he's been training here since November.
#6 Lady Speighspear: Great price at 6-1. Ran third in the BC Filly and Made turf. Won a few graded stakes at Woodbine also.
#7 Speaking Scout: Another nice price at 8-1 ML:. Won the Hollywood Derby. Couple recent wins at 9 furlongs. He should be in the mix coming down the stretch.
#10 Ivar: will be interesting to see what the price will be at post. Arguably the. best horse in field but by how much. I wouldn't take him at any less than 4-1 though. Lots of experience at the stakes level but hasn't put alot of wins on the board in those races. Still should be good enough to hit the board so in exotics I'll put him in.
#11 Master Piece: Another longshot possibility. I don't like the post but if the race plays out right he could sneak in the top 3. Also new trained with Joseph but I like Gaffalione riding him.
Real longshot play: #5 One More Bid. Mike smith.. on a 20-1 shot. When was the last time we have seen that? I doubt he goes off at 20-1 due to smith aboard. But how can you not out a few bucks on that kind of price.
Also probably gonna toss the 12 City Man. The price is not enough for me to make a play with him coming out of post.12
@icemantbi
Just finished my first round of capping (breeding, ownership, trainer/jockeys, money earned, class etc.) & found 3 or 4 on the card that haven't raced in over a year but are working well & could be live. Tomorrow I'll spend time looking at race replays which to me are better than just using the PP's. Regarding Race 12...
I've been a big fan of #1 Wit. Love the Repole/Pletch/J.Ortiz combo. He went this 1 1/8 mile distance for the first time in his last race @ Del Mar. Prat had him in 6th 3 wide most of the race & at the top of the stretch, he had to take him 6 wide & just missed 2nd by a nose & was less than a length off the winner. I think he'll cash a check Saturday.
#2 closed for 2nd @65-1 in his last at this distance but has a real class issue here.
#3 Atone won his last before going on the bench for 2 months. He's got bullet workouts in 3 of his last 4 works. Big jock upgrade to Irad from Karmouche. He's banked over 600k & seems to like the distance with a 3-1-1 record.
#4 has never gone this distance but the one time Dettori rode him in Germany he ran a nice 2nd missing by a head.
#5 gets Money Mike Smith & has won 2 in a row. I don't see any works for him after shipping in from Cali
#6 like that Saez stays on him for Attfield; also like Spreighstown being his daddy. He's won 53% of his races going 7 for 13. He looks live to me.
#7 also ships in from Cali & gets Waco Paco to ride. He's won 2 of his last 3 at nice odds. He likes to come off the pace but I'm not sure if Paco can nurse this guy enough to make a difference.
#8 Emma Jane stays on this guy & why not, she's won 5 of his last 6 with Emma. Downside is she's only 1 for 53 at Gulfstream.
#9 I always have to give any Clement turfer (I just made up that word) an extra look. Junior gets the ride as Tyler gets the mount on #11 for Saffie. Ran a solid 2nd @21-1 in the Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale.
#10 has only tried this distance once finishing 6th in the Turf Classic at Churchill. I like his closing kick with Javier getting the money.
#11 is undefeated at this distance going 3 for 3 but those weren't at GP. He was real dull in the BC Turf.
#12 love when Rosario rides the turf for Clement & like him a lot here.
Got plenty more to cap but these are my initial thoughts.
Some quick thoughts
Race 1 #2 Breaker of Chains has been away for a year, drops in class, attracts Irad & shortens up in her return. ML 3-1. #12 Qualy hS been away 11 months & is under the Saffie Joseph barn with Tyler getting the mount. ML 20-1
Race 3 #1 Corelli has been away for a year, attracts Dettori & has banked 284k. ML 5/2.
Race 5 #5 Paratus """"""""""""""""""""""""" for Junior/Mott. M: 8-1. #7 Husband Material gas also been away a year. ML 20-1
Race 10 #1 Miles D has been away for 11 months for Rosario/Brown/Brant** (I'm a big fan of this owner). ML 3-1
Many on the card have been away 2 months & have been given a breather by their trainers/owners leading up to these big purses.
#2 Mage, a first time starter, won gate to wire @13-1. Very nice..
Race 3 is wide open IMO going a longgggg 1 3/8 mile on the turf. So don't get too excited when you see them go past the finish line the 1st time.
#8 Henley's Joy has banded over 1 million & gets a huge jock upgrade to Saez. Currently 21-1.
WPS #8
Race 7
Boxing 7-8-10-11
#10 has been bet down from 8 to 3-1 probably because of the Repole/Pletch/Irad connection that won earlier @11-1.
#7 seems to like the Tapeta surface winning 3 of 5.
#8 also won his only try on this surface & Javier stays on
#11 hasn't been out of the money on this surface going 5-3-1-1
Not doing so well yet today..
Race 8
#7 is the local filly with the local jockey in Luc Panici who has won 5 of 6 at the track. She makes a big jump in class here.
#10 also likes the track & the distance
#4 is the big chalk & one to beat
#2 is the one they have to catch with Saez gunning her out of the gate.
That's my box.
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