Kentucky Derby 151 Analysis

Hello Cappers & Cappets!

For more than 20 years I’ve provided analysis of the Kentucky Derby on Covers. Humbly speaking I’ve been told by some of you that my comments and observations are often helpful. Others have told me I’m full of canal water, a criticism I readily accept.As a thoroughbred owner for 15 years, I learned that prior to entering a horse in a race, you need to “read between the lines” to determine if your horse has a real shot. It’s one reason why “laughable” Derby entrees like Giacomo and Rich Strike –note the quotation marks--joined the immortals. Their trainers and owners saw what most of the betting public didn’t. While many of my observations state the obvious, I attempt to continue to “read between the lines” to provide factoids and observations, historical trends, things we won’t see in the racing form. Like most recent Derby’s No. 151 provides even the best cappers with a major challenge, but let’s give it go.

Citizen Bull #1…Baffert’s boy has been very good in most of his six races lifetime that includes four wins and a third. CB was touted as an early Derby favorite by many after winning the American Phaoroah and BC Juve last year followed by a win in the Robert Lewis to start the TC campaign. Then a funny thing happened on his way to Louisville… getting clipped in the SA Derby.  Taking the lead, Bull couldn’t keep pace with the winner, Journalism, and Baeza, who finished second. Losing by nearly 10 L he’s been counted out by some who’ve anointed the colt future King of the Mile Races. Backers, there’s hope. He is out of Into Mischief sire of recent Derby winners Mandoloun and Authentic. He also sired a 3^rd place finisher, Audible. States Joe Nevills of Paulick Report, “He (Into Mischief) is also the only sire to send three or more of his runners to multiple Kentucky Derbies (2021 and 2023) since 1906.”  With a lot of upfront speed (American Promise, Neoequos, East Avenue, Owen Almighty, possibly Baeza) with Journalism likely breathing down the leaders’ necks tactics by jockey Marty Garcia are critical. Throw in the “dreaded,” albeit improved out of gate configuration of post No.1. Last time winner that came from this post was in 1986 with ill-fated Ferdinand. It could be a tough day for Citizen Bull. Mayber a slice at 20-1 but looking forward to a great career in shorter journeys. Baffert will try blinkers off.

Neoequos #2…The lad has done well with a record of 7/2-2-2 including third place finishes in the FLA Derby and FOY. However, against this field he might be a few steps behind. However, he’s one of a handful that might be ripe on the front end if the leaders drop off and he stays to the end. Neoequos finished third in his last two to both Tappen Street, who would have been one of the faves today, and Sovereignty in the FLA-D; third to Sovereignty and River Thames in the FOY. He’s got a graet jock in Saez who took the mount after Prat moved to Baeza. Note: Saez won the Oaks on Friday with Good Cheer. Saffie Joseph trains and he’s hitting at a 20% win rate this year. Not many are familiar with his sire, Neolithic, who earned $2.2 million. The sire, like the colt, never won a graded stake but picked up major money in the Pegasus, Dubai WC and Woodward. At 30-1, the juice might be too good to not include in exotics. Possible slop play, too, as the boy has a win in the mud.

Final Gambit #3…Bumped and throttled out of the gate during his Jeff Ruby win, the colt’s deep close from almost 9 L earned a 90-Beyer on the synthetic surface. The Derby will be his first start on dirt. With four OK works at CD for this, he’s got Brad Cox going for him along with jock Machado. They combined for 33% wins in 39 starts in 2024-25. Machado is a decent 16% wins in 364 starts in 2025. Sire has proven versatile producing turf, dirt and synth winners. At 30-1 never count out Cox. Vying for a piece of Derby pie, Final Gambit will need racing luck to win, but as a deep closer, never can tell.

Rodriguez #4…SCRATCHED-------Racing’s new fair-haired boy after his lone speed with blinkers off win in the Wood, a lot of buzz about the son of the great Derby winning and 2020 HOY Authentic.  Rodriguez is the sire’s first Derby runner. Great move by Baffert to switch to Masterful Mikey Smith in the Wood as the colt’s wire-to-wire win was boffo. Rod earned his second 100+ Beyer, one of just two in this race to hit the century mark (Journalism is the other; Baeza also 100). Here’s why I can’t back Rodriguez for the win. First, Authentic’s progeny of 7.45 at the distance places Rodriguez toward the middle of the field, and while not a big deciding factor for me, one worth noting when it comes to nut-cuttin’ time. However, what concerns me more is his finish nearly 12 L behind Journalism in the San Felipe and 3-3/4 L behind speedster Citizen Bull in the one-mile Lewis. Fast, yes, he is. Winning on the front end of a 1-1/4 mile race with at least four others vying for the lead then trying to hold on, I think not. One more thing….the last horse to win the Derby out of the Wood was Fusiachi Pegasus in 2000. At 12-1, Rodriguez might be an under for me, but I’ll look at the odds board before deciding.

American Promise #5…A bit of a veteran in him having run in seven races (7/1-1-1; 3/0-0-1 at CD). He won the Virginia Derby last out which featured a ho-hum field besting Render Judgment, who is in this race, by 7-3/4 lengths earning his second 95 Beyer. AND, he set a Colonial Downs track record! The great 89-year-old trainer and 4-time Derby winner, D. Wayne Lukas sends American Promise into deeper waters. However, he’s out of TC winner Justify, who sports the fourth best winning distance progeny of sires. Jockey Juarez doesn’t seem to rate with these jocks, but it’s the same thing many said about Sonny Leon and, back in the day, Stu Elliot. Expected to try for the lead or at least stay close. Note from reliable HorseRacingNation.com (HRN), “if he somehow gets away up-front, he will outrun his odds.”  Wouldn’t it be a glorious day for horse racing if octogenarian Lukas won his fifth Kentucky Derby?

Admire Daytona #6…One of a crop of improving Japanese horses, Me-thinks this horse is solid, but maybe not up to this crowd. While he might end up on turf, he’s done yeomen’s work on dirt winning the UA Derby in a wire-to-wire photo never quitting. Daytona has a great jockey in Christophe Lemaire winner of nearly 2000 races in Japan. Jock also found success in the U.S. winning the BC Juve Turf on Flotilla in 2012 and the Secretariat on Bayrir also in 2012. Trainer Yukihiro has moderate success with 15% wins last year.  From Pauilck Report, sire Defong “won the Eclipse Award as champion sprinter of 2016, on a campaign that featured wins in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at six furlongs and the G1 King’s Bishop Stakes at seven panels. At four, he added a win in the G1 Forego Stakes, also at seven furlongs.” Admire Daytona will likely press the pace, but it will take a solid effort to get in the money.

Luxor Café #7…If you’re looking for a reason to play a Kentucky bred who races in Japan look no further. Son of TC winner American Pharoah and grandson of More Than Ready makes him part of a royal family. Sire progeny winning distance is a good one, fifth among this year’s Derby sires. Comes into this with four wins in a row winning in fields with 16, 14, 10 and 11 horses. Brazilian jockey Moreira, aka. The Magic Man, the 41-year-old spent part of 2013 at Churchill. He’s won over 2500 races with $57 million in purses. Trainer Noriyuki Hora has won $27 million in stakes money, so there ya’ go.  According to Equibase, “Luxor Cafe earned 108, 105 and 105 EquibaseSpeed Figures in three of his four wins, which compares favorably to the 106, 108 and 110 figures Journalism earned in three of his last four races, so Luxor Cafe appears to be just as fast as Journalism.” Lifetime 6/4-1-0, he’s got the closing kick that can pass all of them. At 15-1 ML, I expect that he could take money before the bell moving into single digit territory. Luxor is a must-include on all tickets and don’t discount his being the first horse from Japan to win the Derby. Note: Japan’s Forever Young finished third in last year’s race.

Journalism #8…While I was a Journalism student in KoLLeGe, I’m kind of-sort of teetering on his winning. Like all of us with a competitive spirit, we’ll try to beat the likely favorite. The J-Man and Baeza (101 in SA Derby) are the only ones to reach 100+ Beyers (Journalism with 102  in SA Derby; 108 in San Felipe). Interestingis his remarkable improvement from age two to three. Tells me that the son of legend Curlin (Uncle Mo is his dam’s dad) might be an even bigger monster from here on out. He’s won four in a row (5/4-0-1) and shows the kind of versatility needed in a now 19-horse field to win. Shows staying power evidenced in the last four wins by a combined less-than-10L. Does he want to go further and is he ready to do it? Could be as sire’s average progeny winning distance of 7.67 furlongs third among all sires in this race and showing signs by slightly pulling away in the past four. Appears to be the truest mid-packer in a race loaded with upfront speed and closers, he'll likely sit back needing to stave off closers in the stretch before gunning it.  Concerns…He’s CaliforniaCentric in his career he’s been in fields of just five horses—four times-- with one race, against 9 other opponents. Has he experienced the pressure from behind that he will get on Saturday? Can he stay on? Has he raced any horses worthy to win this? We’ve seen other Californians in the past who have raced in short fields only to flop in company of 19 warriors. Some might ask if l Rispoli/ McCarthy can win such a race. Hell yes!

Burnham Square #9…I Jonesed on this guy for a few days but cooled off. Two graded stakes wins at age three say a lot with Beyers improving each race earning a 96 in in his Blue Grass win (G-1). One of the better closers in this race, Burnham Square is the son of Liam’s Map (out of prolific Unbridled’s Song) winner of the 2015 BC Juve Dirt and Woodward. Brian Hernandez, who was my Man of the Year in 2024, rides for capable Ian Wilkes. Knock by some pundits is that he had the perfect set up in the Blue Grass to crack a 100 Beyer and didn’t. To that I quote George Costanza, “Yeah, in six games.” Poppycock! There might be several reasons for not reaching 100 so the idea that he won’t run on is absurd in my opinion. Some concern for me that he is a gelding so hope he isn’t kicking the gate before the bell. More than 70 geldings have competed in the Derby with nine (nearly 13%), including Funnycide and Mine That Bird, winners. Give serious consideration for some if not for all. Comment from HRN, “a bit of a grinder that will appreciate the distance and will be passing tired horses late….” ML of 12-1 is hard to pass up on an improving horse who closes well.

Grande #10…SCRATCHED----Fits the pattern that some recent Derby winners have had, including Mage, in that the Curlin colt (dam out of War Front) is lightly raced but won the Derby. Unraced at two, he won his first two races and finished second to Rodriguez in the Wood unable to keep up with the winner.  I like his improvement. I like that he’s likely to get a favorable pace. Tends to go wide, but coming of the 10 post, and while he should get out well, he might not be able to move wide, a plus for me. The bad news? Will lack of experience be detrimental? Will he try to run with the pacesetters causing a flop?  Also, hard to believe that trainer Pletcher is 2 of 65 in Derby starts. Finally, do you still believe in the Curse of Apollo? Until Baffert’s Justify won in 2018, Apollo, in 1882, was the last horse not raced as a two-year-old to win the Derby. Mage also beat the curse in 2023 with his Derby win. Something to gnaw on. Bottom line for me is that I like the improvement and I think he can step up. 20-1 on the ML is tempting with four-time winner Johnny V, who won on Grande in his first two races, holding the strap.

Flying Mohawk #11…Even at 30-1 on the ML there’s a few bright spots for Flying Mohawk. 6/2-2-2 is not bad for a lifetime and he finished second to Final Gambit in the Ruby. Going into that race he won two straight and might have taken the Ruby had he not been bumped early. Mohawk runs late—ranks second in average progeny winning distance-- and closers are expected to compete on May 3. Bred for the turf, this will be his first dirt race. His Daddy, Karakontie out of the great sprinter Bernstein, won the 2014 BC Mile. Dad raced 12 times, winning five and ITM in two others. Trainer Whit Beckman hasn’t had great success in biggies, but he hasn’t had a whole lot to work with. Whit is 0-15 in graded stakes. Pilot Ramos with a handy 19% wins in 2025. Trainer is 40% wins in 15 races without the shades. An interesting note in that he’s owned by former MLB player Jason Werth, who has had a few good horses. I can’t play, but stranger things….

East Avenue #12…I got a feelin’ for this guy and when I get a feelin’ …I usually lose. There’s some hope for this 20-1 shot. First, why isn’t he 30-1 like the others that the track capper has seemingly dismissed? Yeah, his lines say sprinter, but this is one of those colts that looks like he is improving after two graded stinkers. His 96 Beyer in the Blue Grass in losing by a nose to Burnham Square was no fluke. He hit a 95 in the Breeders Futurity last October. So, if you like Burnham, shouldn’t you like East Avenue? Maybe not as Burnham appears to be a bonafide closer at the distance.  Solid trainer Walsh and even more solid Manny Franco team up on the son of Medaglia d’Oro out of a Ghostzapper dam. Says potential turf sprinter, but he charged hard on dirt in his first two races even though he had firm leads heading to the wire.  I will look for clues before including him on my final tickets, but he is worth a look-see at a nice price.

Publisher #13…Another American Pharoah for Asmussen (0 for 26 in KY Derby) with Irad O in the saddle (0 for 8 in Derby), he is a maiden. No maiden has won the Derby since 1933.  Looking at the bright side, Publisher does have two races at Churchill, both third place finishes. The colt improved in each race at age three, posting a career high Beyer of 95 (with blinkers) while finishing second in the Ark Derby to likely 2 or 3 fave Sandman. He is a bit of a closer, but I don’t think he has the better kick among the ones that will be charging from behind. Backers hope for racing luck to horn-in on exotics.

Tiztastic #14…I’ll start with what I say every year about the winner of the Louisiana Derby. Just two horses, Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996 by a disputed nose over Cavonnier, have won the Derby. No doubt this is an excellent horse with great breeding. He’s won three races in eight tries with a total of six ITM finishes. Tiztastic ran a very good Louisianna Derby showing what a good closer does coming from more than 9 L to best Chunk of Gold to earn a 95 Beyer. Of his two colts racing in the Derby, Tiztastic is Asmussen’s best chance. Joel Rosario, who rode the boy in his LA Derby win, rides. So many good closers in this and with some of the late kickers perhaps fading, he’s a maybe for a place or show check.

Render Judgement #15…Out of one of all-time my favorite horses, Blame, who grinded his way through a great career, Render Judgement has won just one race that as a two-year old, but did place second (behind by more than 7 L) in the Virginia Derby to American Promise. For this horse to win trainer Kenny McPeek, who was off the charts in 2024 might have to pull two rabbits out of his hat. You’ll recall that Kenny won with Mystic Dan last year. Not a true closer, in my estimation, RJ gets Leparoux, a master at moving horses late. To me it isn’t the case of picking the best jock available. I think Kenny picked Julien because the jock can push a horse late. A good sign for backers, but a tall task at odds that promise to hover around 50-1 or better.

Coal Battle #16…I love the old school name and note that his sire, Coal Front, sits in the breeding shed for $2000, which, in today’s breeding game, is the equivalent to working for spare change. Dumb jokes aside, a $70K purchase has turned into a winner of $1.2 million with five wins and a third place in eight races. His third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby might be clue enough regarding his getting the distance finishing 7 L behind Sandman after fading. Note that he has the lowest Tomlinson distance rating of any in the race according to DRF. What’s good? Five wins showing he has the heart, a jock-trainer combo of 36% wins (jock Vargas, 72-year-old trainer Briley). He has beaten Sandman and somewhat regarded Speed King and out of the 16-hole, feel-good story or not, Coal Battle might be able to wrangle a decent trip and a piece.

Sandman #17…In live odds as of tonight the son of the great Tapit has buzzed around 7-2.  He is a deep closer who brought the chickens home to roost in the Arkansas Derby. He also has excellence in Jose Ortiz and Mark Casse handling him. Some will pooh-pooh his mediocre performances in three races at Churchill, but those took place when he was two. The difference between a two-year old that raced in October to a three-year-old the following May is like going from freshman year to senior year of high school. The Ark Derby set up well for him and he is knocking on the door of a Beyer of 100, but his main competition won’t be Coal Battle and Publisher as it was in Hot Springs. It will be Baeza, Journalism, Luxor and Sovereignty. Note: In Derby history in 43 starts out of PP 17, 0 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds. Should be given some consideration, but he’s going to have to bring a bigger club to the fight.

Sovereignty #18…Getting a lot of attention in early betting with a record of 5/2-2-0 with wins in the G2 FOY, G3 Street Sense (at Churchill) with a second in Grade 1 Florida Derby where he was bested by Tappan Street. Note that he had the points entering the Fla Derby, so there was no need force him.  Beyer patterns show up, down, up, down (79, 89, 87, 95, 92) so is it time again for up? He’ll likely need to do better than his best 95 to win, but why not? His sire is Into Mischief. As I stated earlier, Mischief sired Derby winners Mandoloun and Authentic also siring 3 place finisher Authentic. Paulick Report says, “He (Into Mischief) is also the only sire to send three or more of his runners to multiple Kentucky Derbies (2021 and 2023) since 1906.” His bros improved in their Derby wins, so something to ponder. A tad of concern about post No. 18, which shows 2 wins, 4 seconds and 0 thirds in 35 starts, but I think his running style somewhat negates the gate draw especially since he should have time to get into position to pounce as he is a solid closer. Bill Mott and Junior Alvardo team up. I will have him at the top of my wheels with a few others and hope we can get 9-1 or better.

Chunk of Gold #19…Yet another closer purchased for $2500 his one win was at Turfway on the synthetic last December. Comes in after a second-place finish in the Louisianna Derby losing to Tiztastic by 2-1/4 L. Little-known trainer Ethan West teams with journeyman jock Jareth Loveberry who gives it his all in every race. Credit due to finishing second in the two graded stakes in which he competed. In my opinion Chunk’s best chance is to take the Mine That Bird trip by creeping along the rail while staying just behind then hoping the field in front falls apart, and that’s why I’ll include him in my wheel at nice odds. 30-1 ML, but this guy could be this year’s Rich Strike if the sea’s part.

Owen Almighty #20….The hoopla about his avoiding the Derby for the Pat Day Mile didn’t last long. Can’t blame his owners. After all, who among us wouldn’t want our colt to be in the exclusive club of the 2000 horses who’ve run in the Kentucky Derby? (The better the finish the better the $ in the shed). Winner of the Tampa Derby and sixth in the Blue Grass, Owen does have a win and a second on the Churchill surface. Out of post 20 he is going to have to muster all the strength of his sprinter sire, Speightstown. A capable trainer in Brian Lynch with 2023 Derby winning jock Javier Castellano in the leather. Not today, unless the ghost of Secretariat falls upon him.

Baeza #21….Ohhhhhh  how happy I am that he’s in. Talk about improvement starting with a 60 Beyer in his maiden last December at age two, he earned 87, 93 and then a 101 in the Santa Anita Derby finishing second to fave Journalism by just three-quarters of a length.  Interesting to note that his dam, Puca, foaled 2023 winner Mage and 2024 Derby entrant and Belmont winner Dornoch. Trainer John Shirreffs won with Giacomo, one of the Derby’s great upsets. Also note that jockey Prat, who broke a stake record for wins in 2024, was named on both Neoequos and Baeza, but preferred the latter. I watched the replay of the SA Derby. The ride on Baeza by Berrios was egregious! The horse must have run 3 miles to go 1-1/8 miles going 3-4 wide, then going to the rail, then going back out. Ridiculous! The horse is in form. He’s got a great rider and he’s ready for GO. Listed at 12-1 ML, let’s hope we backers benefit from the marks not noticing the potential of the lad. Let’s also hope the Wiseguys don’t play. Two winners in 19 starts out of the 20 gate, yet that’s 10.5% wins highest percentage of any gate.  My pick to win.

My picks (Subject to change and last minute scratches)

#21 BAEZA to win with #7 Luxor Café,  #18 Sovereignty, #8 Journalism #9 Burnham Square, #17 Sandman

$3 tri: 20/7,8,9,17,18/6,7,8,9,17,18,19

$1 tri: 7, 8,18,21/7,8,9,17,18,21/6,7,8,9,17,18,19,21

$16 exacta: 21/7,8,18

$10 exacta: 7,8,18/21

$8 exacta: 8/7,17,18

$6 exacta: 7,18/8,17

$4 exacta: 21/9

Morning Mikey . Thank you very much for the write up. Alot to absorb. Definitely 2 cups of Java this am so I can retain this. Elbows Up!

great ink.....

Weather looks terrible. 

@JOHNNY_ODAE

 Go gettem', Johnny! Good luck today.

Every year we can count on you for a superb write up.

@vetdrm

 Very much appreciate it, sir. Best of luck today!

Quite the quagmire at Churchill---track sealed. Let's hope it doesn't get cuppy aka. hooves stuck in the mud.

I look for this write up every year!  Thanx Mikey 

@mikeyp1

 Sorry for my ignorance, but are you playing 20 or 21 in that $3 Tri?  Didn’t know if that was a typo based on the analysis 

Where y'at Mike!! Hope all is well with you and your family. Great stuff as usual. I'm with you on most and adding my sentimental Coal Battle for my old Looziana trainer. He does have 2 wins in the slop. Good luck to all in all endeavors.

Thanks once again for all your research and insight. Looks like a muddy track come race time, seems like that might open the door to a big dog to make some noise. Watching the weather closely and will likely wait until late to make my plays. Thanks again 

@Tygermyke

 Hey Myke! You are correct. I might move Coal Battle into the 3rd leg of my tri. Good luck!

@mrusso

 You are most welcome, sir. Does the track look a bit slippery to you? Looked like the big closer in this last race couldn't get maximum traction near the wire.

@mikeyp1

 Just getting some clarification because I don’t bet horses much- is the top written out pick a written out exacta?

and did you mean to write 21 instead of 20 as the top horse in the $3 tri?

@Morphine8X

 Yes 21 not 20.....my brain cramp. Thanks for pointing this out.

@mikeyp1