Kentucky Derby 150 Analysis

Posted at 8 pm Eastern time.

Hello again everybody. For the 20 year, I have come out of the turf cave for my once-a-year Kentucky Derby analysis.

Kentucky Derby 150 is herewith, perhaps, more questions to be asked than answers to be given with a field rife with uncertainty about several horses, including the favorites?

Hope you enjoy my ramblings, but, most of all, my wish is that you’ll take away a few capping points to help you to win.

• 2. Sierra Leone…More questions? Clearly in top form, the son of Gun Runner is in a bit tough with the post and will need the good skills jockey of Gaffalione to move him out of potential trouble early to avoid clinkage with likely get-out runner Dornoch to his left. SL has improved in every race with highest Beyer in the field next to Fierceness, a 98, earned in the Blue Grass. SL won the Risen Star, but keep in mind that no winner of that race has ever won the Kentucky Derby, although two RS winners have smelled the roses. Nonetheless, trends in the Derby have been broken over the past 10 years, so bet with your head. Despite the questions, he will be included in all my tickets because in this relatively mediocre field Chad Brown’s cream just might rise to the top with connections needing to recover his $2.3 million sales price. Good enough to meet the obstacles? Backers hope so.

• 3. Mystic Dan…In my book, trainer McPeek is one of the best with three-year olds, but Kenny seems to fall short of the summit in TC races. I’m afraid it will be more of the same. Mystic Dan is talented (6/2-1-1 lifetime with more than $600K in purses), but is he a tad-and-a half behind the elites? Dan’s best winning effort was in the slop in the SW Stakes (career high 89 Beyer) coupled with a respectable third to Muth in the Arkansas Derby. Note that Muth might have been a big contender today. In the Ark Derby entrant Just Steel finished second. Dan’s capable pilot, B. Hernandez, a personal favorite, needs to be a master tactician to move him out and get him into mid-pack contention. Yes, he could, but not with my money.

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• 4. Catalytic…Don’t be surprised if this guy pulls a habbit out of his rat not for win but for a major piece at a huge price. Why? First, the $10K seller comes out of his first two career races, his two-year old maiden and three-year old debut, a $75K O/C, in good order both efforts with 77 Beyers. Then, he goes to the Florida Derby, pulls a 90 Beyer coming in second to all-electric Fierceness! Yeah, he lost by 13-1/2L, but beat Derby entrant Grand Mo the First and the very formidable Hades and Conquest Warrior. I’ll take that improvement any day. Speed favored him in FLA, and maybe on May 4 as well. A lot to do for a relatively inexperienced horse, but big-time J. Ortiz holds the strap for trainer Joseph. I will include under at 50-1 or better at the bell.
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5. Catalytic…Don’t be surprised if this guy pulls a habbit out of his rat not for win but for a major piece at a huge price. Why? First, the $10K seller comes out of his first two career races, his two-year old maiden and three-year old debut, a $75K O/C, in good order both efforts with 77 Beyers. Then, he goes to the Florida Derby, pulls a 90 Beyer coming in second to all-electric Fierceness! Yeah, he lost by 13-1/2L, but beat Derby entrant Grand Mo the First and the very formidable Hades and Conquest Warrior. I’ll take that improvement any day. Speed favored him in FLA, and maybe on May 4 as well. A lot to do for a relatively inexperienced horse, but big-time J. Ortiz holds the strap for trainer Joseph. I will include under at 50-1 or better at the bell.
6. Just Steel…Wish that D. Wayne Lukas will live forever, but at the age of 88 this could be the Maestro’s final symphony. A four-time winner of the Kentucky Derby… wouldn’t it be something for Lukas to win this? The problem is that Just Steel seems to be a beat or two off. With a “whopping” eleven races under his belt, probably 5 or 6 more than the winner of this race will have in a lifetime, JS has just two wins finishing ITM seven times. All said, he’s out of TC winner Justify finishing second to Baffert-trained Muth in the Arkansas Derby with a career high 95 Beyer. (FYI…Muth is favored over Fierceness and Sierra Leone in Preakness future wagering). Just Steel will be competitive under a trainer who knows how to win the Derby. One note note. Steve Asmussen’s son, Keith, rides. Steve is 0-25 in Derbies. Could the son get a win before Steve does? Good Luck D.Wayne!
7. Honor Marie…BS on the rumors of a scratch on Thursday night. Go ahead and laugh, but one of my tickets will have the son of the great Honor Code and a Smart Strike dam on top. All of my tickets will be included. Honor Marie ran an excellent Louisiana Derby finishing second to Catching Freedom and earning a 96 Beyer. Honor Marie’s work has been outstanding, won at CD as a two-year old, and possesses a closing kick that will come to good use assuming this race will set for him. I’m a bit sketchy on the jock, Ben Curtis, and trainer Whit Beckman, both first timers for the Derby. However, Stu Elliot (Smarty Jones), Sonny Leon (Rich Strike) and Mario Gutierrez (I’ll Have Another) are past winners in their KD debuts AND, ten of the last 24 first time trainers have won the Kentucky Derby. DRF’s “Closer Look” on the race says, “don’t underestimate.” I won’t!
8. Just A Touch…Another question regarding this unraced two-year old. The “Apollos Curse” angle, unraced two-year old's not winning the Derby since 1882, was broken by Justify in 2018. Well, 136 years is a long time and Justify was a freak, so I will continue to subscribe to the “curse.” Of course, I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth by saying several times in this analysis that Derby trends have been diminishing almost by the year. The colt, who loves the slop, has raced three times this year, a curse in itself in past years. However, those with “just” three career races have won twice in the past six years (Mage & Justify), so he’s got that goin’ for him. Derby winner Geroux in the leather for Cox, a 29%-win combo at Churchill and 29%-win combo overall in 2023-24. A potential winner here coming off a 96 Beyer and a second in the Blue Grass to Sierra Leone, so sharpen your pencils.
9. Encino… SCRATCHED, but a few things to think about. Another Cox runner, Encino could have made a difference as he might have taken the lead and forced the pace. Thus, one of the better front-runners is gone and that needs to figure in your capping when you calculate pace.

 10. T O Password…I won’t make him a simple toss—as I stooopidly did with Rich Strike---because the Japanese horses are not just coming, they’re here-- big-time-- as evidenced by JPN Breeders Cup showings the past few years. Not much to work with here, but this horse has talent, as his two career races show. He has a prominent Japanese jockey and solid trainer. Do I think he can win the Derby? I didn’t think Rich Strike, Giacomo or Mine That Bird could win it. Pay attention to articles and comments from cappers to get some intelligence on the animal. Ya’ never know.

 11. Forever Young…This is the best horse from Japan I’ve seen entered in the Derby. Forever Young is the very real deal. A record of 5/5-0-0 and $2 million in prizes—dollars, not yen—his Time Form ratings are excellent and comparable to most of the better Beyers of horses in the race. Criticized for not liking kick-back (who does?), FY bowled over regarded Book’em Danno in the Saudi Derby and he looks like a solid closer. I’ve always said that horses who come from other parts of the world to Mayden and Dubai go there to put their careers in reverse. Not this guy. He’s a true globetrotter. I’m not saying that Forever Young is going to join the immortals, but he is good and can win this race regardless of JPN horses due after years of trying.  Sakai has jockeyed 4,000+ races, but only 9.7% wins. Trainer Yahagi is 11%+ wins and trained the 2020 JPN TC winner.  Solid win candidate!

 12. Track Phantom…I’ve gone back and forth all week long on this $200K Quality Road colt. Fourth place in LA. Derby and second in Risen Star despite 94 Beyer’s in each, has he regressed since his Lecomte victory? We’ll see if he goes to the lead, or near front end, which might make a difference in the entirety of the race. Hard to fool Asmussen with the educator putting blinkers on the lad (Steve is 15% wins with eye shades). Hall of Fame inductee Rosario tickles the twine with the two combining for 27% in wins at CD. Not looking for more than a piece and if the pace is super quick at a mile or so, he’s adios ‘till next time.

 13. West Saratoga…Touted as the feel-good story of the week, the colt has raced eleven times amassing over $400K in winnings with a record of 10/2-5-1, pretty good. His best speed figure is an 85 in the Jeff Ruby on synthetic (2 place, 4L out). Sorry. Can’t do it.

14.Endlessly…Winner of the Jeff Ruby by 4L, out of recently beatified turfer Oscar Performance, he’s made great progress. Endlessly is 6/5-0-0 lifetime with his only blemish an 8 place in the BC Juve Turf, but that was a loss by just 3-1/2L. Of his six races, the boy has run two on synth and four on turf. Nice that he’s in the Derby, but can he go on dirt? We’ll see, but not with my money.

 15. Domestic Product…When was the last time we got 30-1 odds on a Chad Brown horse ridden by Irad Ortiz? Well, that’s what we got here in the son of Practical Joke entering with a nice resume (5/2-1-0 lifetime), but maybe a bit shy of the best. Improving as a three-year old, there are questions about his tackling the distance. I can’t back him, but Irad-Chad believers (27%-win combo in 2023-24) should go for it.

 16. Grand Mo The First…While his stats might not merit 50-1 status, the third place finisher in the FLA Derby (lost by 16L) looks out-classed by a longshot (pun intended). With early success on the synth and turf, he’s transitioned well to dirt, but the Uncle Mo colt looks out-matched with this bunch. Of course I should pass, but I have a hankering for a slice.

 22, Mugata…According to Dave Grening of DRF, “Mugatu does not draw in and will now point to Peter Pan.”

I’m not going to bet on all 14 horses listed here. Closer capping is needed to make affordable, yet well-informed bets.

Win candidates in order of preference:

Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Honor Marie (17, 2, 11, 7)

Place candidates in order of preference:

Resilience, Catching Freedom, Just A Touch, Epic Ride (19, 4, 8, 21)

Show candidates in order of preference:

Catalytic, Dornach, Just Steel, Stronghold (5,1,6,8)

Superfecta fourth place candidates in order of preference:

Domestic Product, Track Phantom, Grand Mo the First (15, 12, 16)

Note...the system or posting a lot of copy here is not good, so my edits got screwed up, This part is missing:

 4. Catching Freedom…This is another with questions. The son of Constitution (Tapit) and a Pioneer of the Nile dam will need racing tactics extraordinaire to navigate early and to swim mid-pack waters before setting down for the close. His work for this has been stellar and he gets a great Derby jock in Prat, who won this with Country House in 2019. Don’t doubt Brad Cox, who is destined to win a second Kentucky Derby. One knock to consider. Just two horses have won the Louisiana Derby, Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996 ( I will always believe that Cavonnier won that race by a half-nostril), and went on to win the KY Derby. Again, the trend has been to buck the trend, so carry on. Catching Freedom is not at the top of my wheel, but I put him under.

Catalytic is #5, not #4

So sorry, but posting a lot of copy on this site is not easy. If you have questions, let me know and I will answer them.

Thanks for info!

all 4 in the win are 

Fierceness reminds me of Big Brown

Sierra Leone closing in the mud

Forever Young and Honor Marie, watched their last post.  this race will be EPIC

Thanks for all the information, for a "recreational" player like me very much appreciated! Best of luck to you!

Spot on Just a touch will be there in the home stretch. Gl

@mrusso

@mrusso

 "I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant." Thanks for the nice comment. Maybe a 70-1 "sleeping giant" will win the big race!

 Good write up mikeyp 

@mikeyp1

   hey  mikey p  how are you...  arent  you one of them guys  who  got this forum started  .....that was 20 years ago.  ive been here for 23 years..  im getting old..  hope all is well.   i boxed  5  bombs  4-8-11-15-19   in ex  and tris  today.   i  still dont  like  favorites..good luck

@mikeyp1

@pittsburghphil

 Philly....so great to hear from.  Yes...we're oldies but goodies. Good luck!

Good to see Pat Day Remember the early days at Arlington Park

Solid write up 

@vetdrm

 You mean Pat F'n Day? Sure do

@vetdrm

 RIP Arlington Park. Where I fell in love with my gf.

I drove by Arlington last week. Not a building. Not a tree. Not a stick of grass anywhere.  I almost started to cry.

Official order of finish in the 150th running of the Kentucky on May, 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

1. No. 3 Mystik Dan
2. No. 2 Sierra Leone
3. No. 11 Forever Young
4. No. 4 Chasing Freedom
5. No. 10 T O Password
6. No. 19 Resilience
7. No. 18 Stronghold
8. No. 7 Honor Marie
9. No. 14 Endlessly
10. No. 1 Dornoch
11. No. 12 Track Phantom
12. No. 13 West Saratoga
13. No. 15 Domestic Product
14. No. 21 Epic Ride
15. No. 17 Fierceness
16. No. 20 Society Man
17. No. 6 Just Steel
18. No. 16 Grand Mo the First
19. No. 5 Catalytic
20. No. 8 Just a Touch

@Ushpa

 Props to the two Japanese horses for finishing 3r and 5th, and for the nice efforts by Resilience and Stronghold. I'm wondering if Stonghold and Resilience will go to the Preakness and/or Belmont.