Happy Derby Day

Just a couple of quick notes to start the day.

The weather doesn't look good but may taper off by the time the Derby is run. 

Irad got shutout yesterday but has 10 shots today. 

Asmussen has the most tries, 26, without winning the Derby. Today he takes two shots with #13 Publisher & #14 Tiztastic.

In the 2nd race today, #10 Generous Lover won his last race 6 months ago by 26 lengths at Mahoning Valley. I find it odd that he won by 26 but sat on the bench for 6 months after that. ML 7/2 with Jose Ortiz taking the mount.

The Baffert Factor..he ran 4th with his only try yesterday & today he has 7 running : 2 in the 3rd, 2 in the 6th, 1 in the 8th, 10th & 12th. In the 8th, he has #10 Nysos who hasn't race in over a year. Prior to that time he was undefeated going 3 for 3. The dude is always a factor.

Juan Hernández has 6 mounts today for Baffert & his new connection Mike Maker. 

Coach Lukas is high on jockey Nik Juarez & they have 6 mounts today. It could be a long day for them.

In Race 6, #2 Built dropped out of the Derby to run in the Pat Day Mile. Owners apparently think this is a softer spot for their colt. 

If time permits, I'll post those who have raced on an off track in each race. Here's the list for the Derby.

DERBY HORSES WITH OFF TRACK EXPERIENCE:

#2 NEOEQUOS WON BY 3.5 LENGTHS AT GULFSTREAM & LOST THE RIDER AT THE START IN HIS 1ST RACE AT GULFSTREAM

#5 AMERICAN PROMISE WON BY 1.5 LENGTHS AT OAKLAWN & RAN 8TH BY 6.5 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL

#6 ADMIRE DAYTONA RAN 4TH BT 4.5 LENGTHS IN TOKYO

#7 LUXOR CAFE RAN 2ND BY A NECK AT SAIPAN (THEIR TRACK RATINGS MAY BE DIFFERENT THAN OURS BECAUSE HE'S LISTED AS 4-3-1 ON A OFF TRACK)

#13 PUBLISHER RAN 2ND BY 1.5 LENGTHS AT OAKLAWN & RAN 3RD BY 2.5 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL 

#16 COAL BATTLE WON BY 2.5 LENGTHS AT DELTA DOWNS & WON BY 3.5 LENGTHS AT EVANGELINE DOWNS 

Race 1

Double 8-11-12 with 7-10-11

@Midnight1

 good stuff. thanks

If you wheeled Good Cheer in the OAKS yesterday, you'll make money as long as #8 Journalism or #18 Sovereignty doesn't win.

#12 couldn't get passed #3 in the 1st. #3 had raced in the slop just once before losing by 26 lengths but today he goes gate to wire. Go figure, huh?

Race 2 OFF TRACK Experience

#2 RAN 5TH BY 5.5 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL

#3 RAN 2ND BY A NECK AT HAWTHORNE

#8 RAN 2ND BY 1.5 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL

#10 RAN 4TH BY 8 LENGTHS AT OAKLAWN

#11 RAN 2ND BY 1 LENGTH AT CHURCHILL

KEEP IN MIND MY DATA ONLY GOES BACK 10 RACES FOR EACH HORSE 

, huh?

Race 2 OFF Track Horses

@mikeyp1

 Always enjoy your thoughts

Will you be posting any of your plays in here today?

GL today, legend. 

Thanks for the info MIdnight and good luck today.

@jhoss00

 Yes, that's what I plan

RACE 3 OFF TRACK EXPERIENCE

#1 WON BY 2.5 LENGTHS AT HOOSIER PARK

#7 WON BY 2.5 LENGTHS AT FAIRGROUNDS (THIS IS A COLT doc & i HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING/LOSING ON SINCE HE WON THIS RACE IN THE SLOP) 

#8 RAN 5TH BY 8 LENGTHS AT FAIRGROUNDS

#10 RAN 2ND BY 1.5 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL

RACE 3

Baffert's wife owns # 9; he also has #5 in here who is currently the chalk.

#3 has been well bet in both tries winning his 1st & running 3rd in his last.

#6 is Geroux & Cox 

But I am giving #7 Hypnus one more shot since he was so convincing in winning over the slop.

WPS #7

BOXING 5-6-7-9 

Who do you like in the 3rd race?

ADDING

TRI KEY 5 WITH 6-7-9-11

How about the #11 horse?

WINNER!

TRI KEY 9-7-5 PAID $130.82 

TRI BOX PAID $130.82

EXACTA BOX PAID $34.12

#7 PAID $6.32/$4.06

RACE 4

My play #10 was scratched

BOXING 2-6-9

@Midnight1

 What about the #4 horse? Opened at 20-1 and is down to 5-1 now

Midnight

well, seven finally showed a little something didn’t he? congrats pal.

@vetdrm

 Holy Shit doc! I thought he was going to catch Baffert's horse. 

Ran 1st & 3rd in the 4th

RACE 5

I had #6 Sacred Wish with a big * last night but he's getting clobbered at the windows. Anyway...

TRI KEY 6 with 2-4-5-7

Not close.

Nice pickup mount for Luis Saez on #9

You looking to pivot off Burnham due to track conditions today, Midnight?

Race 6

The track is an absolute mess. The Derby becomes even more interesting.

I don't have a good feel for this race. #2 Built left the Derby to run here in what owners believe is a easier spot. The tote doesn't show that as of yet.

I'm making a small play on #1 Madaket Road. He ran a solid 2nd to Coal Battle & goes shorter here for Irad/Baffert.

I'm here to chime in with a valuable nugget...The Kentucky Derby pools will be HUGE today, remember that you don't have to just bet your choice to win. Going across the board can pay off nicely as well. The place and show pools have hidden value and most bettors overlook them a lot. Take it from a seasoned veteran.  

@Midnight1

 I'm no expert on track conditions, but the surface looks slick with a lot of them not getting any real traction. Assuming this continues this will be a more "interesting" race than originally thought.

@mikeyp1

 Indeed

I've been re-watching replays in between races & there's so little experience over a wet surface. #13 Publisher has a little experience but #16 Coal Battle jumps right off my laptop with 2 wins in the slop. The whole story of the trainer could be a movie.

The track crew do amazing jobs making the surface as safe & fair as possible but they have their hands full today.