Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park - 2/23

gulfstream race 6 - passing.

state breds going 7/8ths with half the field making their debut.  not much meat on the bone to analyze.  yikes!  i'll pass.

boring so far though my bad i was not on the 2 in race 2.  should get better if we can beat some favs later here at GP which I think is possible though not sure yet if worth swiging against Data Link. 

i type in the odds when i bet for several reasons that being one of them.  after that i can't control it.  i might walk out of the room, go outside, scratch my nuts, who knows anything - and then come back to watch it.  i rarely listen to guys on TV though i do really like HRTV and detest TVG.  yeah when they get pounded value goes out the window i realize that. 

Quote Originally Posted by estes1717:

Jimrockford I always bet place in case a shot comes on top 

agree there in theory.  best scenario is when you are on a nice price say 7/1 and if you horse fires but gets nipped by another price the P can pay. 

i'm aware there are those that think a four horse EBX has "so much value".  i disagree.  to get 5/1 you need a $2 exacta that pays $144 or higher.  (5 x $24 plus your $24 = $144)

believe me boys I try to achieve the highest return i fell is possible in each race.  the key is that every race is a separate event in and of itself with its own circumstances.

would i take a horse that is inconsistent and dicey at say 5/2 in a twelve horse field on turf???  fUUUUkkk no.

going back to race 3 at GP.  the 1 was at 3/1.  if you look at the others they were absolutely atrocious and on top of that had absolutely no pace.  i knew they would all quit.  the chalk came from a conditional maiden claimer with a decent fig (for this race only) and sexy connections but she was very even late.  so, essentially this 1 only had to beat one other horse.  she faced 50K sellers last out and showed some early zip and fell apart in a big field.  they rested here and drilled her consistently.  so, drop in class and wire to wire.  won by a pole.  in that race 3/1 was value.  got bet late.

gulfstream race 7

4 WP

9/2 on the board.  late speed, distance, stamina.  yes, a little layoff but i like the drills for the comeback and the skip.  yup, never been on the green.  like the moves on the poly and drills on the green.  worth a shot for me.  1 could steal but also could be very vulnerable late.  not convinced this import is a freak but he's the chalkie. 

arcadia race 1

6 WP

9/1 on the board.  pace, pattern.  smaller play.  0.50 units.  comes back very quick nakatani threw in the towel last out.  almost no pace in this event she could get out front and get comfortable.  like i said smaller play knowingly taking on more risk here. 

4th at 8/1.  certainly considered the chalk who won 2nd time out for gaines but didn't have any reason to think she would wire them.  not willing to rely on a big closing move when she bfaded late first time out. 

santa anita 2

5 WP

gulf 8

9 WP

5/1 on the board.  pace, speed, pattern.  needs to steal this one at the top of the lane. 

gulfstream

7/1 winner

pace edge.  put the shades back on today as well.  excellent ride by that jock

4th.  flat late in the lane. 

gulf 9

1 W

2/1.  small field it is what it is.  recency, late speed, stamina.  think the 4 sets up a nice target to gun down.  don't like pletch's chalkie looks like she runs evenly late and she is off the pine.  good opportunity for 1 to gun them down. 

gulf 3rd.  the 4 never stopped.  impressive.

arcadia race 4

5 WP

5/1 on the board.  late speed, distance, pattern.  didn't like the wet track, freshened, strong drills since.  more than capable on figs.  players drooling over baffert and mitchell i'll try this 5.