with IWR not getting the early action what is your take?
I think triple crown/breeder's cup players with deep pockets spending the weekend at church had someone tell them friesan is the only one proven in the slop so they laid it early. I am not saying i agree.
I kind of like friesan as you know slop or not so we'll see.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
with IWR not getting the early action what is your take?
I think triple crown/breeder's cup players with deep pockets spending the weekend at church had someone tell them friesan is the only one proven in the slop so they laid it early. I am not saying i agree.
I kind of like friesan as you know slop or not so we'll see.
fatroll has been an aggressive backer so just wanted to see his take. personally i was a bit surprised but knowing that plenty can change tomorrow. i was surprised in that FF, kirk, and IWR weren't all closer. i thought we'd see them all close to 5/1 and pioneer at 7/1.
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i understand that the odds will change tomorrow.
fatroll has been an aggressive backer so just wanted to see his take. personally i was a bit surprised but knowing that plenty can change tomorrow. i was surprised in that FF, kirk, and IWR weren't all closer. i thought we'd see them all close to 5/1 and pioneer at 7/1.
General Q will be at least 12-1 by post time IMO. The horse looks like a also ran to me. Think the CD regulars played him today. His owners history with the claim and all is pretty interesting and think some people bet him with their heart today.
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General Q will be at least 12-1 by post time IMO. The horse looks like a also ran to me. Think the CD regulars played him today. His owners history with the claim and all is pretty interesting and think some people bet him with their heart today.
The odds will definitely change quite a bit come tomorrow- people definitely dumping on Fresian Fire, due to LaDerby slop victory. Remember we are not guaranteed to be running over a sloppy track tomorrow- 50% chance of rain in the forecast so it could very well be fast/good- track was already upgraded this afternoon to fast before running of Ky Oaks. $400,000 in the win pool right now, figures to be over $30 million by the time they spring the latch tomorrow. I want revenge will be bet to 4-1 at best i think.
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The odds will definitely change quite a bit come tomorrow- people definitely dumping on Fresian Fire, due to LaDerby slop victory. Remember we are not guaranteed to be running over a sloppy track tomorrow- 50% chance of rain in the forecast so it could very well be fast/good- track was already upgraded this afternoon to fast before running of Ky Oaks. $400,000 in the win pool right now, figures to be over $30 million by the time they spring the latch tomorrow. I want revenge will be bet to 4-1 at best i think.
Atlas IWR hung pretty close to his ml. The major change was just FF taking all the money because of the slop situation. If you look at the true sign imo, OAKS/Derby Double IWR was the favorite. All the favorites will drop in odds tomorrow
FF and IWR will vie for favoritism. IWR workouts over the wet/deeper track didnt appear as good to me but his breeding says he will run on it. FF is the safer play because he is going to break and have the golden trip. Remmeber the year with smarty and lionheart. 1 -2 all the way around the track and finish 1-2
- I may be off but i still think this pace is going to be soft. One freakin horse got entered with speed, papa,ff, and regal run like 23 or 24 and 47/48 half miles. Obviously they will be a bit faster tomorrow. If pletchers horse has a bad break then we are still looking at a paceless race on a wet track, Going to be tough as hell to close on that.
- Quarters took a ton of play. If track is wet I will probably be forced to play him. Trainer said he is really hoping for a wet track.
- Like a lot of people are saying.. its hard enough to cap the derby with synthetic/dubai horses/7 week layoffs/20 horse fields.. Now we have fuckin slop possibility and 2 horses have raced in. Unreal
-Do keep in mind. Derbies that have been ran in the muck have been way chalkier then the fast tracks.
As of now I am still playing kirk,FF,IWR tri box Also will be doing a tri key (most likely keying IWR in 1 ,2 and 3) with a combo of FF,Kirk,Ransom and then I will choose 2 horses out of this group Clem,Quarters,Hold me back, C candy, Potn... leaning on clem and hmb. If wet probably toss hold me back.
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Atlas IWR hung pretty close to his ml. The major change was just FF taking all the money because of the slop situation. If you look at the true sign imo, OAKS/Derby Double IWR was the favorite. All the favorites will drop in odds tomorrow
FF and IWR will vie for favoritism. IWR workouts over the wet/deeper track didnt appear as good to me but his breeding says he will run on it. FF is the safer play because he is going to break and have the golden trip. Remmeber the year with smarty and lionheart. 1 -2 all the way around the track and finish 1-2
- I may be off but i still think this pace is going to be soft. One freakin horse got entered with speed, papa,ff, and regal run like 23 or 24 and 47/48 half miles. Obviously they will be a bit faster tomorrow. If pletchers horse has a bad break then we are still looking at a paceless race on a wet track, Going to be tough as hell to close on that.
- Quarters took a ton of play. If track is wet I will probably be forced to play him. Trainer said he is really hoping for a wet track.
- Like a lot of people are saying.. its hard enough to cap the derby with synthetic/dubai horses/7 week layoffs/20 horse fields.. Now we have fuckin slop possibility and 2 horses have raced in. Unreal
-Do keep in mind. Derbies that have been ran in the muck have been way chalkier then the fast tracks.
As of now I am still playing kirk,FF,IWR tri box Also will be doing a tri key (most likely keying IWR in 1 ,2 and 3) with a combo of FF,Kirk,Ransom and then I will choose 2 horses out of this group Clem,Quarters,Hold me back, C candy, Potn... leaning on clem and hmb. If wet probably toss hold me back.
The oaks/derby double with quarters is at 37 to 1!!!!!!!!!!!!! so dont take these odds to serious
FF should probably be favorite imo. He won on the slop and they have been saying all week that he looks like a straight up slop horse. Jones said he is as good if not better as he was going into the la derby. All the favorites will drop in odds.
FF and IWR will vie for favoritism at around 4-1.
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and atlas look how wack those odds are
The oaks/derby double with quarters is at 37 to 1!!!!!!!!!!!!! so dont take these odds to serious
FF should probably be favorite imo. He won on the slop and they have been saying all week that he looks like a straight up slop horse. Jones said he is as good if not better as he was going into the la derby. All the favorites will drop in odds.
fatroll youve been very educational, thanks. Im new to wagering on horses. Could you give me an example of the dollar amounts I would wager on a WPS vs say a TRIBX?
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fatroll youve been very educational, thanks. Im new to wagering on horses. Could you give me an example of the dollar amounts I would wager on a WPS vs say a TRIBX?
yea I mean I don't look at who these horses beat. Its too hard to gauge. I just look at their beyers and how they finish. Like POTN beating these horses on the west coast. Shit means 0 to me, it was on synthetic who cares. I just like to see a horse finishing the race strong, I like to see improvement, I like to see a nice tactical speed horse. FF fits the category, IWR fits the category. Papa does too, he was a toss for me at first but then he had that bullet work and bejarano was pretty psyched up and i said to myself fuck. Im still not sure he is fast enough to run with the top 3 but superfecta.. horse ran a 101 beyer last time(got to respect at least a little) -Dunkirk just closed at GP and you just dont do that(this year). That angle has been money for me. These horses come back and fire. I mean there are closer type horses who came to gp and ran 60 beyers, leave the track and run 80s. All the horses that ran at front end at gp are going on to run like shit everywhere else. Dunkirk also has wet breeding. Take a look at the form today if you still have it.... Race 5- the 11 horse looks like a money pick, right? Front running style at gp. the 9 horse was a closer at gp and wins for fun today(horse raced against dunkirk too, Kirk beat him by 5 lengths!) Ms iseela today, i loved her but was focused on one caroline over her in my tri(only hit a 1 dollar tri with her on top) horse raced at GP and ran like dog shit. Tried to close and couldnt make up any ground one caroline beats her by 10 lengths.... whoops CD today she beats one caroline, what do you know. Race 9 bullsbay closer at gp. Makes a big move 4 races back but cant close enough and gets second. Then runs a second race at GP and doesnt finish the race. Ship him to laurel and he closes like a freight train. Today wins at 3-1. Macho again didnt run a lick in sunshine mil classic at gp(dead closer), ships to FG and wins the g2 new orleans handicap at 11-1.
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yea I mean I don't look at who these horses beat. Its too hard to gauge. I just look at their beyers and how they finish. Like POTN beating these horses on the west coast. Shit means 0 to me, it was on synthetic who cares. I just like to see a horse finishing the race strong, I like to see improvement, I like to see a nice tactical speed horse. FF fits the category, IWR fits the category. Papa does too, he was a toss for me at first but then he had that bullet work and bejarano was pretty psyched up and i said to myself fuck. Im still not sure he is fast enough to run with the top 3 but superfecta.. horse ran a 101 beyer last time(got to respect at least a little) -Dunkirk just closed at GP and you just dont do that(this year). That angle has been money for me. These horses come back and fire. I mean there are closer type horses who came to gp and ran 60 beyers, leave the track and run 80s. All the horses that ran at front end at gp are going on to run like shit everywhere else. Dunkirk also has wet breeding. Take a look at the form today if you still have it.... Race 5- the 11 horse looks like a money pick, right? Front running style at gp. the 9 horse was a closer at gp and wins for fun today(horse raced against dunkirk too, Kirk beat him by 5 lengths!) Ms iseela today, i loved her but was focused on one caroline over her in my tri(only hit a 1 dollar tri with her on top) horse raced at GP and ran like dog shit. Tried to close and couldnt make up any ground one caroline beats her by 10 lengths.... whoops CD today she beats one caroline, what do you know. Race 9 bullsbay closer at gp. Makes a big move 4 races back but cant close enough and gets second. Then runs a second race at GP and doesnt finish the race. Ship him to laurel and he closes like a freight train. Today wins at 3-1. Macho again didnt run a lick in sunshine mil classic at gp(dead closer), ships to FG and wins the g2 new orleans handicap at 11-1.
lemmer if you want to make a tribox I would just go 1 dollar tribox with 4 horses. it will cost you 24 bucks. after that it gets really pricey. 5 horse tribox is 60 bucks. any of the 5 horses can run first second and third.
When I bet exotics in derby I key one horse in first, second, and third. I figure if I cant pick a horse to hit the board then I don't deserve to win.
so how it works is like this... I put say FF in first over 5 horses. of those 5 horses 2 of them have to run second and third. Bet cost 20 bucks
I then put all those 5 horses in first place and put Friesin fire in second play and then those 5 horses in third.
Finally I put those 5 horses in first and second and Friesan Fire in third.
If friesan fire doesnt run 1st second or third i automatically lose my bet. So why do this? It allows me to use A lot of horses for not that much money. Like i said earlier, if you bet a 5 horse tribox its 60 bucks. This bet I get to use not 5 but 6 horses for 60 bucks! I also will be doing that for superfecta.
I know I sound really stupid right now but it is a pretty complicated bet. If the track is Fast that horse will be IWR, if the track is sloppy it will probably be FF. Whatever you do dont listen to hank goldberg he is terrible. He is picking FF so it is scaring me lol.
Win place show is a great bet in the derby. Place and show pay really good because there is so much money in the pool. Just a 20win place and show bet on the favorite will return you your 60 bucks plus another 150 bucks. Not bad at all. Good luk
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lemmer if you want to make a tribox I would just go 1 dollar tribox with 4 horses. it will cost you 24 bucks. after that it gets really pricey. 5 horse tribox is 60 bucks. any of the 5 horses can run first second and third.
When I bet exotics in derby I key one horse in first, second, and third. I figure if I cant pick a horse to hit the board then I don't deserve to win.
so how it works is like this... I put say FF in first over 5 horses. of those 5 horses 2 of them have to run second and third. Bet cost 20 bucks
I then put all those 5 horses in first place and put Friesin fire in second play and then those 5 horses in third.
Finally I put those 5 horses in first and second and Friesan Fire in third.
If friesan fire doesnt run 1st second or third i automatically lose my bet. So why do this? It allows me to use A lot of horses for not that much money. Like i said earlier, if you bet a 5 horse tribox its 60 bucks. This bet I get to use not 5 but 6 horses for 60 bucks! I also will be doing that for superfecta.
I know I sound really stupid right now but it is a pretty complicated bet. If the track is Fast that horse will be IWR, if the track is sloppy it will probably be FF. Whatever you do dont listen to hank goldberg he is terrible. He is picking FF so it is scaring me lol.
Win place show is a great bet in the derby. Place and show pay really good because there is so much money in the pool. Just a 20win place and show bet on the favorite will return you your 60 bucks plus another 150 bucks. Not bad at all. Good luk
yes lemmer if you lay 20 WPS you are risking 60 total. if your horse wins you collect a nice payoff (much better than the even money in a football or basketball game). if your horse runs second you may very well make a profit depending on the odds and the odds of the winner. if your horse runs third you still may make a profit again depending on the odds of the 1 and 2 finishers.
in my humble opinion WPS isa good money management strategy if you can pick these runners (not just talking about tomorrow). when they run fourth or worse you don't get jack shit.
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yes lemmer if you lay 20 WPS you are risking 60 total. if your horse wins you collect a nice payoff (much better than the even money in a football or basketball game). if your horse runs second you may very well make a profit depending on the odds and the odds of the winner. if your horse runs third you still may make a profit again depending on the odds of the 1 and 2 finishers.
in my humble opinion WPS isa good money management strategy if you can pick these runners (not just talking about tomorrow). when they run fourth or worse you don't get jack shit.
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