Arkansas Derby Anaylysis and Picks

Over the past 5 or 6 years, I think this race has become somewhat of a favorite among many Covers aficionados if, for anything else, because it seems to present interesting fields from year to year ranging from local yokels to winners who faded away to national heroes.

Here’s who has won this race in recent times:

2015 American Pharaoh                Baffert

2014 Danza                                         Pletcher

2013 Overanalyze                            Pletcher

2012 Bodemeister                           Baffert

2011 Archaracharch                         Jinx Fires

This year’s field has much of the same interest with horses from 80-year old trainer-legend Jack Van Berg to Wayne Catalano, Dale Romans and Donnie Von Hemel to Baffet-Pletcher-Asmussen.

Cupid is the Flavor of the Month, but hold your horses with a very possible upset in the making.

#1 Discreetness……Jinx Fires tosses this guy into the mix at 20-1 ML. The colt has been pretty bad in his last two, the Rebel and the Southwest, losing by a combined 18L. Those races set up for this one, so this looks like it could be more of the same for the son of Discreet Cat. However, Fires has won this before, so maybe the minor-ist of pieces is in the offing?

#2 Cutacorner…..At 50-1, he appears to be an immediate dismiss. Octogenarian Van Berg is a sly ol’ fox, but I don’t think he can pull it off with this guy.

#3 Creator….Asmussen has a knack for putting horses in these spots who appear to have small chances. While I will not pick to win, Creator has a few things going for him. In addition to the conditioner, he’s out of the great Tapit, who is hot on this year’s trail…...$440K Keeneland seller. He gets equally hot Santana to man the leather (22% wins/ 21% with Asmussen); Career high Beyer in the Rebel last out. Creator ran a very spiffy third in the Rebel to Cupid and Whitmore, two of today’s favorites. He went 5 wide in the Rebel losing by just 3 lengths coming from dead last. I think the stretch will help and a super-slice is a definite might be. Juicy at 18-1.

#4 Suddenbreakingnews……What in hell happened to him in the Rebel? Had some trouble and seems to be battling a few maturation issues, but a worthy entry if he can keep it all together. Trainer Von Hemel has worked him discreetly for this and, if jock Quninonez can keep him on-target, he will be flying at the end.

#5 American Pioneer……Proceed with caution. Son of Awesome Again is a real upset candidate, despite just two career races with just one as a 3-year old with his 8-1 ML odds providing some evidence for me.  His stakes debut, Catalano puts the gritty Bejarano aboard. Do not dismiss. NOTE: Catalano won this with Crypto Star in 1997.

#6 Unbridled Outlaw…..About to get branded as a classic underachiever, this Unbridled Song’s offspring hasn’t come close in two career stakes for Dale Romans. Make or break day with a possible attempt to steal it on the front end.

#7 Dazzling Gem….I really liked his effort to finish third in the LA. Derby despite being pinballed from start to mid-race. Distance is favorable and his steady work in prep for this is solid. My only beef is that trainer Cox puts Joe Talamo to hold the strap. I am just not a fan. ML of 12-1 is palatable on your exotic tickets.

#8 Whitmore….Excellent job in the Rebel is his attempt to beat Cupid, he’ll need a full tank to win today. He should like the stretch and his capable pilot, Ortiz Jr, seems simpatico with Whitmore’s style.

#10 Cupid…..Draw back your bow and let your exotics flow…..Clearly the class of the race, but perhaps a half-step behind Nyquist for the crown. DRF note says he “raced greenly the entire race” in winning the Rebel. Baffert looks for that green to turn red today. With the way he closed the Rebel, the added panel should only add to his big heart near the finish.

#11 Gray Sky…..Lukas annual entry into this race, he hasn’t won this since Bernie Sanders was hawking the Daily Worker in Columbus Square….1985. At 30-1, I think he has little chance, although he did OK in the Rebel finishing 6 back to Cupid.

#12 Gettysburg……Pletcher seems pretty serious about this one bringing in his ‘A’ player, Johnny V to ride. Came up empty in his only stakes, Tampa Bay Derby, and looks to improve at 6-1 today.

My Picks

#10 Cupid…..I cannot pick against, but I think he’ll be tested early by a few, including, perhaps, 30-1 Luna de Loco.  There will be a few moving fast at the end, but based on his close in the Rebel, I’m not afraid.

$16 exacta: 10/3, 5, 8

$6 exacta: 10/4,7,12

 $3 tri: 10/3,4,5,7,8,12/3,4,5,7,8,12

GL TO ALL

I hear you, Vet. But I believe that any trainer worth his salt will tell you that, with very rare exception, will they do anything to hold back a horse.

Some will let a horse go when off layoff to get him/her out, but without changing their style, which includes easing the horse along. Trainers will also tell you that when a horse  loses--even just a few times--that is a brain-twister for the animal.

Cupid might be on the cusp of a Derby win and a great performance today will keep the horse's brain in form. Like Pharaoh last year, I think there is no way Baffert does anything to hold back the horse.

Cupid 3/5 with 25 minutes to post.........hope for bombers under!

Whooooooooooooooooooa Nelly!

CREATOR WINS

3,4,8,7 finish

Cupid out wayyyyyyyyyyyyy too early with nuthin' left!

I have to watch this one a few times more......looked to me like Cupid was totally spent with 2-1/2f to go as the pace was blistering.

Not the make-up of a Derby winner. In the meantime, aside from Creator, SBNews 's performance was boffo!

Mmmmmmmmmm. Exaggerator  catching my eye.

Hey, Pal.....total kudos. That was a terrific pick. Why? Because Creator had a chance going in off what he did in The Rebel, the breeding, the hot jock and trainer.

 You "read between the lines," which is what a good handicapper does!

YOU picked him!