Sport’s handicapping attracts lazy people. Fact is, if you are reading this right now;
85% chance is that you are a lazy handicapper.
In fact, the vast majority of sports bettors would not qualify for the
title of ‘Sports Handicapper’. Look at
how the average ‘Joe Blow’ handicaps a game.
He probably does not even have Direct TV’s NFL package, or any means to
watch multiple games. He watches the two
early games, one late game, the Sunday night game, the Monday Night Football
game, an hour of ESPN, and maybe an hour of NFL This Week. That is what just about everybody—Squares—
who bets on sports gets their information.
The lines are then set for those exact people that possess that exact
information; they are the vast majority of people who will bet the upcoming
weeks games—the Squares. If everybody is
using the same information to base their play decisions, the lines will
eventually (sooner rather than later) move to exactly where the average sports
bettor thinks the game will end up. The
‘feel’ bettor is hilarious to a real handicapper. The ‘feel’ bettor does not realize that the
worst thing that can happen to him is to get his ‘feeling’ and have it just
happen to come out correctly on the field; then he is fucked, because he now
found “the formula” for success and will keep trying to get the ‘feel’
back. Don’t get me wrong, real
handicapper’s ‘feel’ is when he has pounded details, news, simulations, injury
reports, locker room zeitgeist, and everything he could for a half a season;
his ‘feeling’ is his subconscious proding him with information too vast for conscience
recall. The ONLY way to gain an edge is
to work your ass off digging for every tid-bit of non-mainstream news that you
can, dig into detailed stats (and not just Offensive rankings/yards, defensive
rankings/yards, quarterback ratings, ect.
Be lazy and cap at fifty percent, pay someone who will dig the details
up for you (a service), or plan on spending a few hours—or much more—digging into
each game you play; you have no other options.
Few handicappers
realize that they themselves are the ‘Square’.
Regardless of what you read, look up, or are told; a Square is ‘Joe
Public’ who bases his plays on basic, easy to find, common mainstream sport’s
new/information. A Sharp is someone who
gets non-traditional, more detailed, deeper information to base his plays
on. A Square can be someone who plays 5K
a play but uses basic information, and a Sharp can be someone playing $100 a
play but uses non-traditional/detailed information to base his plays. Funny, I can look up the definition and more
often than now a Sharp is a Sharp simply by the amount he wagers on a game—this
is bullshit, plain and simple. So many
sport’s bettors refer to the ‘Squares’ as some secret society that they
themselves have nothing to do with. The reality
is that everyone knows an asshole, but no one ever thinks they are an
asshole. Sport’s bettors who rely on basic
mainstream information to base their play opinions are the Squares. I see it all the time here in Vegas; most
guys walk into the Book, grab a list of the day’s games, flip it over—which has
a snap shot of a Covers game stat sheet—read the stats as they are slowly
walking towards the ticket window. Do
you have any clue how much the Book’s appreciate these guys? It is the Books ‘bread and butter’ They are the Squares.
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