There are a lot of posts in this thread that will make it seem Obama is a shoe in. Many of those posts make sense but they could be considered spin. Here is some Republican spin. Take it for what it's worth.
Obama won the popular vote by 7% in 2008. Right now polls have it as a dead heat.
Every state that is a swing state is a state that Obama carried in 2008.
In most of the polls Obama leads in those states by an avg of two to three points. Also, in most of them he is not getting 50%. Historically undecideds go towards the challenger (candidate or party). And, except for Rasmussen, all of the other polls oversample Democrats and are using 2008 turnout numbers.
Let's look at Wisconsin as an example. During the recall election the polls the day before had Walker and Barrett basically tied. Walker won by 7%. That is a huge difference. He won by more in the recall than he did in the original election. I know not every vote for Walker is a vote for Romney but most are. Having Paul Ryan on the ticket may also get some votes that Romney wouldn't have gotten.
This is not an historical election like 2008 was. The first black President being re-elected isn't as historical as the first black President being elected. Turnout among Obama supporters will not be as high.
Because of his record over the last 4 years there are many people who voted for Obama in 2008 that will vote for Romney this year.
Everyone that voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Romney in 2012.
I don't even know if this matters but in 2008 early turnout favored Obama by double digits. This year early turnout is favoring Romney (20 point plus swing). If anything this shows voter enthusiasm among Republicans.
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There are a lot of posts in this thread that will make it seem Obama is a shoe in. Many of those posts make sense but they could be considered spin. Here is some Republican spin. Take it for what it's worth.
Obama won the popular vote by 7% in 2008. Right now polls have it as a dead heat.
Every state that is a swing state is a state that Obama carried in 2008.
In most of the polls Obama leads in those states by an avg of two to three points. Also, in most of them he is not getting 50%. Historically undecideds go towards the challenger (candidate or party). And, except for Rasmussen, all of the other polls oversample Democrats and are using 2008 turnout numbers.
Let's look at Wisconsin as an example. During the recall election the polls the day before had Walker and Barrett basically tied. Walker won by 7%. That is a huge difference. He won by more in the recall than he did in the original election. I know not every vote for Walker is a vote for Romney but most are. Having Paul Ryan on the ticket may also get some votes that Romney wouldn't have gotten.
This is not an historical election like 2008 was. The first black President being re-elected isn't as historical as the first black President being elected. Turnout among Obama supporters will not be as high.
Because of his record over the last 4 years there are many people who voted for Obama in 2008 that will vote for Romney this year.
Everyone that voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Romney in 2012.
I don't even know if this matters but in 2008 early turnout favored Obama by double digits. This year early turnout is favoring Romney (20 point plus swing). If anything this shows voter enthusiasm among Republicans.
The economy was collapsing when Obama took office. When Obama took office the Dow Jones was 7,949 and it's currently 13,437.
When Bush became President the Dow was 10,587 just about a 25 percent decline under the last republican president. Not to mention a war with Iraq that killed thousands of young American soldiers and over 100,000 innocent Iraqis. It's estimated that the war in Iraq cost the United Sates $3,000,000,000,000.00.
When Bush took office the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent and when he left office it was 7.7 percent.
dow jones up to 15387.58...............almost doubled under obama
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Quote Originally Posted by I_Need_A_Detox:
That statement is a joke.
The economy was collapsing when Obama took office. When Obama took office the Dow Jones was 7,949 and it's currently 13,437.
When Bush became President the Dow was 10,587 just about a 25 percent decline under the last republican president. Not to mention a war with Iraq that killed thousands of young American soldiers and over 100,000 innocent Iraqis. It's estimated that the war in Iraq cost the United Sates $3,000,000,000,000.00.
When Bush took office the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent and when he left office it was 7.7 percent.
dow jones up to 15387.58...............almost doubled under obama
Ask any economics major what impact the President has on the economy Detox. They'll tell you he is a cheerleader on the sidelines. Politicians know most people only care about the economy so they focus on it because most people are not informed. When someone tells me about the economy and the President in the same sentence I immediately know they have very little knowledge of politics or basic principles on money.
Detox the President only real impact is raising taxes and government spending but even then all of that power Congress holds. The Pres just gives his signature at the end of the process to make it law but it has to get there. Congress hold all fiscal responsibility. You want to talk about the economy lets start with Congress and the Federal Reserve. Your best argument is macro but even then it takes years for it to show effect. Guys stop talking about the economy and the President because you will not be taken seriously.
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Sigh.
Ask any economics major what impact the President has on the economy Detox. They'll tell you he is a cheerleader on the sidelines. Politicians know most people only care about the economy so they focus on it because most people are not informed. When someone tells me about the economy and the President in the same sentence I immediately know they have very little knowledge of politics or basic principles on money.
Detox the President only real impact is raising taxes and government spending but even then all of that power Congress holds. The Pres just gives his signature at the end of the process to make it law but it has to get there. Congress hold all fiscal responsibility. You want to talk about the economy lets start with Congress and the Federal Reserve. Your best argument is macro but even then it takes years for it to show effect. Guys stop talking about the economy and the President because you will not be taken seriously.
The Dow is a good indicator for solid market trends and under Obama the market has done significantly better than it did under the last two Republican presidents.
Another good indicator of the economy in the unemployment rate... Yup, the same unemployment rate that almost doubled under the last Republican president.
What are some other indicators?
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The Dow is a good indicator for solid market trends and under Obama the market has done significantly better than it did under the last two Republican presidents.
Another good indicator of the economy in the unemployment rate... Yup, the same unemployment rate that almost doubled under the last Republican president.
Another good indicator of the economy in the unemployment rate... Yup, the same unemployment rate that almost doubled under the last Republican president.
There are fewer people working in American than when Obama was sworn in.
In fact, there were more people working at the height of the 1982 recession, than there are today. Despite the fact that America has almost 100 million more people than we did in 1982. And, we are allegedly not in a recession.
The last time the labor force participation rate was as low as it is today (63.3%) was May 1979.
The BLS reported that in April there were 6,413,000 people out of work who “want a job now” but were excluded from the ranks of the officially unemployed. Adding them back into the labor force produces an unemployment rate of 11.2%
You really shouldn't be talking about Obama and the unemployment rate.
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Quote Originally Posted by I_Need_A_Detox:
T
Another good indicator of the economy in the unemployment rate... Yup, the same unemployment rate that almost doubled under the last Republican president.
There are fewer people working in American than when Obama was sworn in.
In fact, there were more people working at the height of the 1982 recession, than there are today. Despite the fact that America has almost 100 million more people than we did in 1982. And, we are allegedly not in a recession.
The last time the labor force participation rate was as low as it is today (63.3%) was May 1979.
The BLS reported that in April there were 6,413,000 people out of work who “want a job now” but were excluded from the ranks of the officially unemployed. Adding them back into the labor force produces an unemployment rate of 11.2%
You really shouldn't be talking about Obama and the unemployment rate.
People need to understand that there is a fracture in unemployment rate. Many of the unemployed have been out of work for years and are NOT EMPLOYABLE. I've got numerous jobs available, but no one is hiring a person who has been out of work for 2-3 years.
These folks are SCREWED, but they are included in the unemployment rate. I don't care who is President, these folks are not finding jobs unless companies hit desperation mode.
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People need to understand that there is a fracture in unemployment rate. Many of the unemployed have been out of work for years and are NOT EMPLOYABLE. I've got numerous jobs available, but no one is hiring a person who has been out of work for 2-3 years.
These folks are SCREWED, but they are included in the unemployment rate. I don't care who is President, these folks are not finding jobs unless companies hit desperation mode.
Forget who is the President is that is not my argument. You and most people want me to believe one man has the power to oversee what a quarter billion people do with their money in a free market? Is this what you are telling me?
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Forget who is the President is that is not my argument. You and most people want me to believe one man has the power to oversee what a quarter billion people do with their money in a free market? Is this what you are telling me?
Clinton averaged +22 million jobs, under W Bush that number dropped to +2 million.... The biggest decline from one president to the next that this country has ever seen... The country was in a complete free fall when W Bush handed it over to Obama... Obama had to make major decisions and make them fast to stop the free fall... The housing market stabilized and has shown significant gains, the stock market stabilized and has shown significant gains...
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Clinton averaged +22 million jobs, under W Bush that number dropped to +2 million.... The biggest decline from one president to the next that this country has ever seen... The country was in a complete free fall when W Bush handed it over to Obama... Obama had to make major decisions and make them fast to stop the free fall... The housing market stabilized and has shown significant gains, the stock market stabilized and has shown significant gains...
Bush was handed a country that was creating 22 million jobs per year and when he was done with it the country was creating 2 million jobs per year... To say that Bush was creating jobs is extremely misleading.
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Bush was handed a country that was creating 22 million jobs per year and when he was done with it the country was creating 2 million jobs per year... To say that Bush was creating jobs is extremely misleading.
It's well known that I love taking a dump on Bush whenever I get a chance. It must be noted though that Clinton did have the advantage of being President during the internet boom and Bush did catch the tail end of it.
With that being said it doesn't cover the entire number as far as jobs go and any other mistakes Bush made.
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It's well known that I love taking a dump on Bush whenever I get a chance. It must be noted though that Clinton did have the advantage of being President during the internet boom and Bush did catch the tail end of it.
With that being said it doesn't cover the entire number as far as jobs go and any other mistakes Bush made.
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