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    All Forums | General Discussion

    hedging statement.

    EuroPro
    TheGoldenGoose
    FiatLux4
    TheDrizzle77
    666LES
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    EuroPro
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    Posted: Aug. 1, 2015 - 10:13 PM ET #1

    i see alot of people hedge. people are so fuucking stupid to hedge. i can see if it was for a big parlay. but for these oh im hedging after the 2nd set or 2nd qtr hahahah your a joke. if youre hedging out of bets you shouldnt gamble. bold statement.

    anyone inputs are appreciated.
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    i see alot of people hedge. people are so fuucking stupid to hedge. i can see if it was for a big parlay. but for these oh im hedging after the 2nd set or 2nd qtr hahahah your a joke. if youre hedging out of bets you shouldnt gamble. bold statement.

    anyone inputs are appreciated.
     
    TheGoldenGoose
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2015 - 8:00 AM ET #2


    Lifetime of gambling experience speaking here...  If you are constantly Hedging, you are simply paying higher juice for the privilege of gambling and paying higher juice is never a good idea.  If you were bold enough to place the wager, let it ride out.

    I also agree with the OP that if you did find yourself at the end of a once or twice in a lifetime ridiculous parlay, that never should have been placed except you were in a drunken stupor, then a Hedge would be a consideration.


    ~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
    Reply

    Lifetime of gambling experience speaking here...  If you are constantly Hedging, you are simply paying higher juice for the privilege of gambling and paying higher juice is never a good idea.  If you were bold enough to place the wager, let it ride out.

    I also agree with the OP that if you did find yourself at the end of a once or twice in a lifetime ridiculous parlay, that never should have been placed except you were in a drunken stupor, then a Hedge would be a consideration.


     
    EuroPro
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2015 - 12:36 PM ET #3

    thanks Goose couldnt have said it better myself 
    Reply
    thanks Goose couldnt have said it better myself 
     
    FiatLux4
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2015 - 12:54 PM ET #4

    This is the long but incredibly correct answer:

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779
    Reply
    This is the long but incredibly correct answer:

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779
     
    TheDrizzle77
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2015 - 1:25 PM ET #5

    But with the option of live betting now at our hands, hedging should be ever increasing (if you want to define it as hedging.)

    For example, you have a 2K wager on the Mariners, they are winning 4-2 in the 9th against the Angels.  You have Captain Gas Can Carson Smith on the bump for the close.

    Bookmaker's line on the over/under which would be set at 6.5 would probably sit at +200 to +300.  So why not stake AT LEAST 300 on the over 6.5?  You are not betting on the other team to win, just to score a run.  If the splits/matchup/venue don't bode well for your pitcher vs. opposition, then why not buy it at such good odds?  And what if the Mariners are winning this game 6-0 instead and the Angels are now spun at +600 on the live dog line?  Gotta be worth it to put down a sawbuck or two on it.  

    I made a killing on the Bucs/Cards series alone (including Sunday night ESPN baseball) by hopping the live totals/dogs.  If the play is right, it's right.  

    Same applies with basketball.  You get live over/unders all the way until the last media timeout.  

    Telling you, I've made a hell of a lot more money taking these live totals and/or live dogs than with just straight bets.  More times than not I'm cashing both the original wager and the live wager.  

    Again, I don't know if this defines as "hedging," but if it does, I couldn't imagine playing a game any other way.  

    I mean f**ked up shitt happens in any sport.  I've been on the losing end of a 4 unanswered touchdown moosing, or 8 run 6th inning or the backdoor last media timeout hoops moosejob to many times.  The kind of insurance where you can cover your asss and/or win on both ends can't be beat.  What was a great wager on paper might change by the 4th inning whether because of injury, pitch count, weather, weather, weather and weather.  Gotta be smart to corner your action at every angle, and not allowing it to escape with your money, ya?



    Reply
    But with the option of live betting now at our hands, hedging should be ever increasing (if you want to define it as hedging.)

    For example, you have a 2K wager on the Mariners, they are winning 4-2 in the 9th against the Angels.  You have Captain Gas Can Carson Smith on the bump for the close.

    Bookmaker's line on the over/under which would be set at 6.5 would probably sit at +200 to +300.  So why not stake AT LEAST 300 on the over 6.5?  You are not betting on the other team to win, just to score a run.  If the splits/matchup/venue don't bode well for your pitcher vs. opposition, then why not buy it at such good odds?  And what if the Mariners are winning this game 6-0 instead and the Angels are now spun at +600 on the live dog line?  Gotta be worth it to put down a sawbuck or two on it.  

    I made a killing on the Bucs/Cards series alone (including Sunday night ESPN baseball) by hopping the live totals/dogs.  If the play is right, it's right.  

    Same applies with basketball.  You get live over/unders all the way until the last media timeout.  

    Telling you, I've made a hell of a lot more money taking these live totals and/or live dogs than with just straight bets.  More times than not I'm cashing both the original wager and the live wager.  

    Again, I don't know if this defines as "hedging," but if it does, I couldn't imagine playing a game any other way.  

    I mean f**ked up shitt happens in any sport.  I've been on the losing end of a 4 unanswered touchdown moosing, or 8 run 6th inning or the backdoor last media timeout hoops moosejob to many times.  The kind of insurance where you can cover your asss and/or win on both ends can't be beat.  What was a great wager on paper might change by the 4th inning whether because of injury, pitch count, weather, weather, weather and weather.  Gotta be smart to corner your action at every angle, and not allowing it to escape with your money, ya?



     
    EuroPro
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    Posted: Aug. 3, 2015 - 9:42 AM ET #6

    hedging is dumb in general it will drive you crazy. been there done that. how many times ive hedged and ended up winning the original bet is the worst feeling ever. havent hedged in over a year and feelin good about it. ride or die by the sword fellas.
    Reply
    hedging is dumb in general it will drive you crazy. been there done that. how many times ive hedged and ended up winning the original bet is the worst feeling ever. havent hedged in over a year and feelin good about it. ride or die by the sword fellas.
     
    666LES
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    Posted: Aug. 3, 2015 - 3:55 PM ET #7

    Every bet is a stand alone gamble made in the present. A bet on the Over an hour before tipoff doesn't mean a bet on the Under at the start of the 4th quarter is a bad bet. I know a pal who would bet 5team parlay NFL and always anchor with Monday Night game in hopes he hit 4for 4 and he could hedge his 5th. Risk and Reward and living in your skin.
    Reply
    Every bet is a stand alone gamble made in the present. A bet on the Over an hour before tipoff doesn't mean a bet on the Under at the start of the 4th quarter is a bad bet. I know a pal who would bet 5team parlay NFL and always anchor with Monday Night game in hopes he hit 4for 4 and he could hedge his 5th. Risk and Reward and living in your skin.
     
    Skipbone
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2015 - 6:40 AM ET #8

    Anything can happen, so why not bet on it?
    Reply
    Anything can happen, so why not bet on it?
     
    TheGoldenGoose
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2015 - 7:47 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by FiatLux4:

    This is the long but incredibly correct answer:

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779



    That was a very good Thread that I had forgotten.

    Thanks for posting.
    ~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by FiatLux4:

    This is the long but incredibly correct answer:

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779



    That was a very good Thread that I had forgotten.

    Thanks for posting.
     
    thorpe
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2015 - 12:10 PM ET #10

    There are two different things people get confused about:

    1)  Buying your way out of a bet
    2)  Hedging

    You can only hedge when the odds on your bet move in your favor.  

    If you have a 6 team parlay, and you win the first 5, you are not hedging by betting the other team on the 6th bet, you are buying your way out of the 6th bet and it costs you juice to do so.

    If you bet Golden State before the season started to win the NBA at 40-1, then you bet Cleveland at 40-1 when they are down 3-1, then that is a proper hedge because the odds on the bet changed so much.
    Reply
    There are two different things people get confused about:

    1)  Buying your way out of a bet
    2)  Hedging

    You can only hedge when the odds on your bet move in your favor.  

    If you have a 6 team parlay, and you win the first 5, you are not hedging by betting the other team on the 6th bet, you are buying your way out of the 6th bet and it costs you juice to do so.

    If you bet Golden State before the season started to win the NBA at 40-1, then you bet Cleveland at 40-1 when they are down 3-1, then that is a proper hedge because the odds on the bet changed so much.
     
    slamspurs
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    Posted: Aug. 8, 2015 - 6:15 AM ET #11

    I'm glad i wasn't that only one that noticed how many threads there are on hedging in this forum since everyone likes to play parlays so much. The ones who do parlays a lot don't last very long on here, but there will inevitably be someone to take their place.

    I read the first page of that thread you posted, and one of the guys didn't seem to understand how dumb it is to "hedge and guarantee himself money," when he knew I was going to hedge the last game.

    I think people hedge because when they put in the original bet, they're just messing around on a small amount to win a big one, and when you see the possibility of getting half or whatever of a big amount, they realize they should take some money while it's there. Even if they still like the pick. Yeah, it costs them money, but the thought of getting a little money back I understand, which is why people ask about it so dammm much.

    It's a simple concept though. The hedge amount should be what you are willing to risk on the last game. Often the last game is the ML on an underdog, which makes it the crazy payout, so people need to realize they have to pay that huge spread on the favorite's ML to properly hedge.


    If it's smaller parlay like a 4 game, and you're trying to hedge after the 3rd game, yeah that's freakin retarded because it's not a huge payout, so you never should have bet it in the first place.


    I typically agree that if you were going to hedge the game straight up with the same odds, that you never should have put the last game in there in the first place.


    What one of the guys mentioned above in this thread are different kind of hedges though.

    The futures bet hedge is completely different than a parlay hedge. If you get close enough to a future win with decent odds, I don't blame people for taking it. There was no choice there about picking 3 games instead of 4. But again, it's a simple concept and basic math, so there shouldn't be so many questions on it. 


    The second scenario is when the odds change, and they're in your favor. When that original thread was made 8 years ago, live betting wasn't as common as it is now. Back then, pretty much the only time you could hedge would be at halftime. Now, you can bet after every commercial break. 

    So if you've got a parlay, or even a straight bet and the odds are really in your favor, that's a decent situation. For example, if you've got a spread of +3 and your team is winning by 14 at halftime, you can "hedge" and have a realistic chance at middling both lines. 

    Or if it's a money line like in baseball, and you've got a 3-4 run lead on a pickem, and have the opportunity to live line hedge, you've given yourself a little value. You can try and take a RL at even money probably at +3.5/+4 for the other team, or you can get like +700 on the other team. So you might be able to get 6-1 or 7-1 on your hedge, which isn't bad at all. For example, you've got 1000 riding on Team A to win, and you can risk 100 on Team B to hedge it for 700.

    I've noticed that when the odds are like +700 live though, the likelihood of you losing is pretty slim, so usually I just pass it over. 
    Reply
    I'm glad i wasn't that only one that noticed how many threads there are on hedging in this forum since everyone likes to play parlays so much. The ones who do parlays a lot don't last very long on here, but there will inevitably be someone to take their place.

    I read the first page of that thread you posted, and one of the guys didn't seem to understand how dumb it is to "hedge and guarantee himself money," when he knew I was going to hedge the last game.

    I think people hedge because when they put in the original bet, they're just messing around on a small amount to win a big one, and when you see the possibility of getting half or whatever of a big amount, they realize they should take some money while it's there. Even if they still like the pick. Yeah, it costs them money, but the thought of getting a little money back I understand, which is why people ask about it so dammm much.

    It's a simple concept though. The hedge amount should be what you are willing to risk on the last game. Often the last game is the ML on an underdog, which makes it the crazy payout, so people need to realize they have to pay that huge spread on the favorite's ML to properly hedge.


    If it's smaller parlay like a 4 game, and you're trying to hedge after the 3rd game, yeah that's freakin retarded because it's not a huge payout, so you never should have bet it in the first place.


    I typically agree that if you were going to hedge the game straight up with the same odds, that you never should have put the last game in there in the first place.


    What one of the guys mentioned above in this thread are different kind of hedges though.

    The futures bet hedge is completely different than a parlay hedge. If you get close enough to a future win with decent odds, I don't blame people for taking it. There was no choice there about picking 3 games instead of 4. But again, it's a simple concept and basic math, so there shouldn't be so many questions on it. 


    The second scenario is when the odds change, and they're in your favor. When that original thread was made 8 years ago, live betting wasn't as common as it is now. Back then, pretty much the only time you could hedge would be at halftime. Now, you can bet after every commercial break. 

    So if you've got a parlay, or even a straight bet and the odds are really in your favor, that's a decent situation. For example, if you've got a spread of +3 and your team is winning by 14 at halftime, you can "hedge" and have a realistic chance at middling both lines. 

    Or if it's a money line like in baseball, and you've got a 3-4 run lead on a pickem, and have the opportunity to live line hedge, you've given yourself a little value. You can try and take a RL at even money probably at +3.5/+4 for the other team, or you can get like +700 on the other team. So you might be able to get 6-1 or 7-1 on your hedge, which isn't bad at all. For example, you've got 1000 riding on Team A to win, and you can risk 100 on Team B to hedge it for 700.

    I've noticed that when the odds are like +700 live though, the likelihood of you losing is pretty slim, so usually I just pass it over. 
     
     
    slamspurs
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    Posted: Aug. 8, 2015 - 6:15 AM ET #12

    So in conclusion: 

    • Small Parlay like a 4 game, yes very dumb for not dropping it 1 game down in the first place if you were going to hedge it. 
    This is your $100 bet to win $1000/1100, that you should have just done a 3 game on to win $600 in the first place. 
    • HUGE Parlay, while still a waste to hedge the last game,  I understand why people do it when reality hits them that half of their huge payout is their's if they want it. 
    This is typically your lottery ticket bet. Like $10 to win 1500 or something. 

    • Futures Hedging is fine, because you never really had a chance to bet 1 less game, unless there was a line for conference champion as opposed to champion or something.
    This is NFL/NBA/MLB Championship futures bet, or tennis tournament champion bet paying 15 or 30 to 1. Or if you bet it in the playoffs, 6-1 or something. You don't really get a chance to hedge until a closeout game, and your hedge odds will depend on the situation by the end. 
    • Halftime/Live Line Hedging definitely has it's place due to the possibility of middling a bet and winning both bets, or to get a real good value on a ML hedge if your team is winning by a lot after a game has already started. Or if you really feel like things can go south for your team after viewing some of it.
    This is when your team has done well after a game has started, and your original bet doesn't require a 1-1 hedge anymore. 


    I realize some bettors aren't math majors, but the amount to hedge is a really simple calculation.

    If Team A wins, you win payout amount, and lose hedge amount on Team B.

    If Team B wins, you lose original wager and/or payout amount, win hedge amount on Team A. The NET is hedge amount on Team B minus original wager on Team A.


    Amount to risk on hedged game is up to bettor. 

    But who I am kidding, hedging will always be a question on this board unless they outlaw gambling altogether. 


    P.S. One time I even read a thread where a guy had a straight bet on a favorite who was losing at halftime, and he asked how can I hedge? Are you serious bro? 

    Reply
    So in conclusion: 

    • Small Parlay like a 4 game, yes very dumb for not dropping it 1 game down in the first place if you were going to hedge it. 
    This is your $100 bet to win $1000/1100, that you should have just done a 3 game on to win $600 in the first place. 
    • HUGE Parlay, while still a waste to hedge the last game,  I understand why people do it when reality hits them that half of their huge payout is their's if they want it. 
    This is typically your lottery ticket bet. Like $10 to win 1500 or something. 

    • Futures Hedging is fine, because you never really had a chance to bet 1 less game, unless there was a line for conference champion as opposed to champion or something.
    This is NFL/NBA/MLB Championship futures bet, or tennis tournament champion bet paying 15 or 30 to 1. Or if you bet it in the playoffs, 6-1 or something. You don't really get a chance to hedge until a closeout game, and your hedge odds will depend on the situation by the end. 
    • Halftime/Live Line Hedging definitely has it's place due to the possibility of middling a bet and winning both bets, or to get a real good value on a ML hedge if your team is winning by a lot after a game has already started. Or if you really feel like things can go south for your team after viewing some of it.
    This is when your team has done well after a game has started, and your original bet doesn't require a 1-1 hedge anymore. 


    I realize some bettors aren't math majors, but the amount to hedge is a really simple calculation.

    If Team A wins, you win payout amount, and lose hedge amount on Team B.

    If Team B wins, you lose original wager and/or payout amount, win hedge amount on Team A. The NET is hedge amount on Team B minus original wager on Team A.


    Amount to risk on hedged game is up to bettor. 

    But who I am kidding, hedging will always be a question on this board unless they outlaw gambling altogether. 


    P.S. One time I even read a thread where a guy had a straight bet on a favorite who was losing at halftime, and he asked how can I hedge? Are you serious bro? 

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