South Florida at Cincinnati (10/22/2010)

If oahuboy and w8lifter are on the same side, it must be the way to go... final play for me....

USF + the points

You are CRAZY if you don't take Cincy here.

 

@ home, Ring of Red Game. National TV.  UC, lay up to -9

Sweet.....got an extra 1/2 point by waiting. 

I like Cincy  

Cincinatti - 8

I like the points here... but not all that confident.  Small play on USF.  That may change closer to game time.  Or I may just take my Oregon money and wait for tomorrow lol.

More later.

-Don Bunchu

Cincy QB (Collaros) and WR (Binns) along with 10 other seniors have experience playing USF. Binns have been the go to guy for Colarros and had a big game last week @ Louisville. It seems to me that USF is just not set in their offensive schemes as they haven't scored a TD in 8 quarters. Just 4 FG's really and that will not cut it. Yes Cincy will be a softer "D" than Syracuse and WV but they are 100 % better when it comes to offense. USF on the road and pull an upset all of the sudden just won't happen. They might score maybe 2TD and a FG but thats about it. I see this game over by the first half. Cincy at home is tough with a record vs USF to match it. Not only did they win last 5 meetings but covered by at least a TD and this when USF was a better team with more experienced players. As someone pointed out earlier, USF Secondary has not been tested and we will see long TD passes from Collaros to Binns.

Cincy QB (Collaros) and WR (Binns) along with 10 other seniors have experience playing USF. Binns have been the go to guy for Colarros and had a big game last week @ Louisville. It seems to me that USF is just not set in their offensive schemes as they haven't scored a TD in 8 quarters. Just 4 FG's really and that will not cut it. Yes Cincy will be a softer "D" than Syracuse and WV but they are 100 % better when it comes to offense. USF on the road and pull an upset all of the sudden just won't happen. They might score maybe 2TD and a FG but thats about it. I see this game over by the first half. Cincy at home is tough with a record vs USF to match it. Not only did they win last 5 meetings but covered by at least a TD and this when USF was a better team with more experienced players. As someone pointed out earlier, USF Secondary has not been tested and we will see long TD passes from Collaros to Binns.

favorite rule: when everyone on covers is on one side, go the other.

i may not win this usf game, but i'll be up in the end.

 

and btw CONSESUS IS ALL OVER CINCI. (to whoever it was that posted "line went down one, public is all over usf. cinci it is" lol might wanna get the facts straight its rigght on the previous page

This is a cut and dry game South Florida is horrible, their QB is the worst in the Big East, and they are the worst team in the Big East, they lost to Syracuse at home.

 Cinncy will win the Big East, which by the way is like bragging about shitting your pants because the conference is so bad, they will roll tonight 35 to 10 or something like that.

all i gotta say is b j daniels = int x10

Bearcats 

This matchup looks close, but I'll give the edge to the Bearcats.  1) their QB is much better in TD/INT ratio  2) Cincy's passing game  3) they're at home.

Give the points -8

bearcats -8 and small play in the over 48

going under 49

Oahuboy says USF, thank you very much I'll fade ya again....Cincy it is

Let me try and break down where you are completely wrong:

1.  There are plenty of people here on both sides of this game and there is no trend like you suggest.  Sometimes everyone is right on here and the opposite is just as true.  Don't make your bet based off that artificial information.

2.   Barring "reverse line movement" which is too sophisticated a topic for now (Google it).  When the line goes from -9 to -7 like Cincy here, it means people are betting on the other side, USF.  The reason being the books want to balance out the amount bet on either side so they can just make the 10% juice no matter who wins.
If the majority of the bets are coming in on one side, USF in this case, they make the Cincy bet look more attractive by lowering the line.  I only bet on Cincy when the line was -7  if it went off at -9 I would have passed.

3.  The Consensus numbers you see on covers are bullshit.  If you want better consensus numbers go to VegasInsider.com but I still think using any consensus number is stupid.  The true way to know where the money is going is to watch the line from when it opens to what it is at game time.  In tonight's game, the line movement suggests the initial big bettors are on USF.  However, the big bettors are not always right as the best in the business win around 60% - 65% of the time.

4.  You are making this too hard on yourself.  Analyze the stats and the trends.  I took Cincy because they have won this match-up the last 6 times in a row and the stats show the USF QB has 4 tds to 10 ints on the year vs CIncy's QB with 3 ints and 17 tds.  Also USF has scored 15 total points in their last 2 games with no TD's.
Those are reasons to take a side not what some losers in their mom's basement is posting.  Again I may be wrong but I like my reasoning over basing my bet on what others are doing.

A few tips junior.... now go make some money.

I just looked again at the line movement on this game and it is not as pronounced as I suggest above but the same theory applies.

So I wake up this morning, only to find out that the Team Total 1H for Cincinnati went from -13 1/2(-130) to -14 1/2(-115)

I should've pulled the trigger went I had a chance.  The 1H O/U is still the same, but the Team Total for Cincinnati Game, the odds went down to -110.  I still think that Cincinnati will score their share of points, but how fast can they score is the question.  My fear is that USF will just run the ball and keep Cincy's offense off the field. 

I will wait closer to game time to see how this line will move.  Hopefully it moves down

Did anyone see USF play Syracuse a few weeks back?  I only watched the game b/c I had USF.  They looked awful and they certainly haven't looked much better since then.  I can't bring myself to back the Bulls here.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm going with my gut and taking Cinci.  I think they win by DD's.

GL

Last 3 games USF is averaging 237 total yards and they are 1-2 ATS. The Bearcats are averaging 507 total yards per game and 3-0 ATS.  With USF scoring only 6 and 9 the last two weeks I don't see how you can take them.  Cincy's D is not the best but the way their offense is lighting it up lately and the struggles from the South Florida boys, I will gladly lay points.

Cincy-41  USF-17