I disagree; there is a lot of value in the smaller conferences: Sun Belt, WAC, MAC, etc. They don't get the same amount of action as the SEC, Big 12, Big 10 and therefore it's easier for some handicappers to find line discrepancies which can be exploited for monetary gain. But I digress...
What sticks out to me, is that Arkansas St is an awesome 6-2 ATS whereas MTSU is a woeful 2-5 ATS.
I backed MTSU at home earlier in the year -3 at home vs. Troy and they got absolutely SMASHED. Arkansas St has the offensive firepower to hang with a lot of D-1 schools... i.e. their 2 pt loss @ Indiana.
And I am in no way Implying that Indiana is an offensive juggernaut; I am saying though, that compared with a lot of Sun Belt conference teams, Indiana isn't bad.
I would not lay the points with MTSU in a conference game on the road vs. ANY Sun Belt team. PERIOD.
The play is Arkansas St +1.5. And beware OVER backers, I live in Fort Smith, AR which is a couple hours away from where this game is being played and it is overcast outside with a serious chance of rain. However, check the weather reports and make that decision on your own. 
I disagree; there is a lot of value in the smaller conferences: Sun Belt, WAC, MAC, etc. They don't get the same amount of action as the SEC, Big 12, Big 10 and therefore it's easier for some handicappers to find line discrepancies which can be exploited for monetary gain. But I digress...
What sticks out to me, is that Arkansas St is an awesome 6-2 ATS whereas MTSU is a woeful 2-5 ATS.
I backed MTSU at home earlier in the year -3 at home vs. Troy and they got absolutely SMASHED. Arkansas St has the offensive firepower to hang with a lot of D-1 schools... i.e. their 2 pt loss @ Indiana.
And I am in no way Implying that Indiana is an offensive juggernaut; I am saying though, that compared with a lot of Sun Belt conference teams, Indiana isn't bad.
I would not lay the points with MTSU in a conference game on the road vs. ANY Sun Belt team. PERIOD.
The play is Arkansas St +1.5. And beware OVER backers, I live in Fort Smith, AR which is a couple hours away from where this game is being played and it is overcast outside with a serious chance of rain. However, check the weather reports and make that decision on your own.
Throw out MTSU season prior to this game, they have Dasher back with a couple games under his belt and they need a win. Would lean Over but the rain could help keep this game from reaching the number. No play on the total
BOL
when trends favor both teams like this i tend to back the home team.
On paper, this appears to be a pretty evenly matched game. And 1.5 points looks good for Arky State. But is it? In the last 3 years, they have been a woofull 1 - 9 after scoring over 30 points last game! On a neutral site , the Blue Raiders are the better team. Plus the fact, that the Red Wolves will not be up for this contest, as this is not one of their traditional rivals like Memphis,Louisiana Tech, or Troy. Another thing is that Mid Tenn. has been 4 -0- 1 last 3 years as road favorites. Case closed!
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 1.5
On paper, this appears to be a pretty evenly matched game. And 1.5 points looks good for Arky State. But is it? In the last 3 years, they have been a woofull 1 - 9 after scoring over 30 points last game! On a neutral site , the Blue Raiders are the better team. Plus the fact, that the Red Wolves will not be up for this contest, as this is not one of their traditional rivals like Memphis,Louisiana Tech, or Troy. Another thing is that Mid Tenn. has been 4 -0- 1 last 3 years as road favorites. Case closed!
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 1.5
And the home team is 7-2......... I haven't pulled the trigger yet!!!
Middle Tennessee State snapped a two game skid with an impressive 38-10 win over Sun Belt rival UL Monroe. Generally when the Blue Raiders have a good game offensively, Dwight Dasher is at the forefront. This wasn’t as explosive as he’s been but it was a productive day nonetheless as he passed for 219 yards and two scores with a pick and 66 yards on the ground. The rushing attack was their bread and butter with 244 yards split amongst six players and four with 47 yards or more.
The MTSU defense usually plays second fiddle to their counterparts on offense, but this was their best effort of the season to date. They gave up just 269 yards and 3-18 on third down so UL M never was able to drive the field and play keep away from Dasher and company. They returned an interception 70 yards on the Warhawks opening drive which set the tone for the remainder of the contest, which was one of their two picks on the day.
Arkansas State thrashed Florida Atlantic 37-16 to move to 3-2 in the Sun Belt and give them an outside shot at the conference championship. Any success this team has comes on the right arm of Ryan Aplin and this game proved that as he was 28 of 46 for 230 yards, a score and a pick. He also led the Red Wolves with 64 yards on the ground as he led ten runners to 174 rushing yards, which is impressive for a team ranked #83 nationally. Their problem was they put up 28 points in the fourth quarter and need to start games strong instead of frantic endings
The ASU defense played their strongest game of the season, holding the Owls to 319 yards and just 2-13 on third down. The key was they forced three giveaways and returned a fourth quarter interception 37 yards that gave them a 23-16 lead. They also controlled the running game and constantly pressured Jeff Van Camp in the passing attack. Like the offense, they have been part of frantic endings also and this was one of the few games where they were solid for 60 minutes.
This game features the strong passing of Arkansas State versus the dual threat of Dwight Dasher and the Middle Tennessee offense. Look for the Blue Raiders to attack a weak ASU run defense that gives up nearly 200 yards per contest. Both teams are still alive in the Sun Belt, but to me MTSU is the better squad on both sides of the ball with more balance and weapons
MTSU -1
Established in 1995,
at home.
but since I have major issues goin with the over!!!
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