Go see my post in reservior dogs Georgia thread.This will give you some idea of the SOS system.Yes, UCLA plays the tougher schedule. However, they are losing to that schedule and are a negative team on the road. They have no offense, and as mrpapasmurf says, the QB cant throw a straight pass in sunny weather, what makes you think hes going to throw it in windy weather.They also cant run the ball, and if you really look into the run defense, they cant stop it either, something Temple does well. Isnt that what you want to do in that type of weather condition ?
Temple also has been stuffing thier compitions runnig game at a 3.0ypc and can score some points.Yes they had trouble with penn State Temple on the other hand,even though they play weaker competition on the road.They are beating teams by close to 10 pts per game,can run the ball and stuff the run.
Its like this. Go look ay BYU's last 4 road games before they played Oregon State...and im not comparing BYU with Temple, just trying to make a point on how they matched up vs thier road schedule( Last 4 away).They pummled thier weak competition opponents. New Mexico/Wyoming/SanDeigo St/ UNLV???those were bad teams we know this,However those were the teams on thier schedule but, they were beating those teams by 28rawppg .
The case with Oregon State. Sure they played in the tougher conf. However, if you go back to thier last 4 road games.They played Oregon (good Team) Wash St?...take the points they scored off WST miscues and that will tell you about that game.Then Cal...which we all know they suck.Then USC (good team).
If you give BYU's Opponents an average numerical rating of 65 and thats exactly what it was, and BYU is beating that caliber of competition by 28rawppg. BYU has a 93 road rating vs that caliber of competition
.If you give Oregon States opponents an average numerical rating of 79 and thats exactly what it was, and Oregon State is beating that caliber of competition by 9 rawppg, they now have a road rating of 88... 5 pts less than BYU's road rating. Which numericly BYU is 5 points better on the road than Oregon State.
However, if you look at BYU's raw Offensive #'s and BYU's raw Defensive #'s ppg, It swallows Oregon States Offesive/defensive raw ppg, and it showed in the final score.They owned Oregon State form start to finish. There are many varibles to the SOS system.
Georgia vs Texas A&M was the opposite of the BYU vs Oregon St SOS system. Texas A&M losing by 21rawppg to a weak comp 72 = 51road rating (road stats only).vs Georgia losing by only 8.5 to a stronger road competition of 79 = 71 road rating. Making Georgia 19 points better on the road than T.A&M, and that showed in the final score also.
Its the intangeables Turnover's state of mind of the players etc that you cant cap. However, you can come up with a mathmatical educated guess as to what the out come of some games can be.
The oddsmakers make a line. They dont pull it out of thin air. Its our job as Handicappers to see where they stand with that line. Mathmatics/power ratings have a lot to do with it.They are the multimillion dollar masters of manipulation. They will use all their skills to do anything they can to get your money for thier respective sportsbooks. We have to have plan to counter act it..if we can
I meant to mention that up above but got ahead of myself
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