I’ll keep all my plays in one thread this week and see how it goes. I did like the opinions and additional content from others, so let’s keep it up. Just here to spread information together.
I’ll 50/50 on tracking my record. Not my goal to influence or make picks for you. If you’re going to bet, you have to be able to believe in yourself.
Here I am again on the Ohio game, diving into a juicy Week 2 clash as West Virginia visits Athens for the first time since 1949.
Week 1 Box Score Review
West Virginia (1-0) launched the Rich Rodriguez 2.0 era with a 45-3 demolition of FCS Robert Morris, drawing 57,093 fans. They piled up 625 total yards, including 393 rushing (7.4 YPC) across 53 carries from 11 players. QB Nicco Marchiol shone, going 17-of-20 for 224 yards, 1 TD, no INTs, plus 56 rushing yards and a score. RB Jahiem White had 93 yards, 2 TDs on 18 carries; WR Cam Vaughn caught 7 for 127 yards. Backup QBs Jaylen Henderson and freshman Scotty Fox Jr. contributed late, Fox with a 59-yard TD run. Defensively, WVU limited RMU to 123 yards, 8 first downs, forcing 2 turnovers and 4 sacks—LB Chase Wilson led with 6 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, a sack, and a forced fumble. Downsides: 9 penalties (69 yards) and 4 fumbles. K Kade Hensley was perfect (1/1 FG, PATs).
Ohio (0-1) nearly stunned Rutgers, falling 34-31 on a late FG. QB Parker Navarro dazzled, throwing for 239 yards, 3 TDs, and rushing for 93 yards, 1 TD. WR Chase Hendricks had 115 yards; 8 receivers caught passes. Ohio racked up 440 yards (201 rushing), but their run defense was gashed, allowing 6.3, 7.0, and 5.7 YPC to Rutgers’ top RBs. They converted 5-of-10 third downs but lost a punt block for a TD. No turnovers forced, yet their offense stayed alive until the end.
Injuries/Suspensions
No suspensions reported. WVU’s backup QB Max Brown (hamstring) is questionable but won’t affect Marchiol; OL Kannon Katzer (undisclosed) could return. Ohio’s CB Roman Jackson Jr. (undisclosed) is questionable from preseason, but no new injuries emerged vs. Rutgers.
Team Outlooks
West Virginia’s 2024 (6-7, 7-6 ATS) was a rollercoaster, alternating wins/losses, ending with Neal Brown’s exit after a 42-37 Frisco Bowl loss to Memphis. Rich Rodriguez, back after 60 wins (2001-07), now ties for second in WVU history (61). His up-tempo, run-heavy offense leverages last year’s 194 YPG ground game (fifth in Big 12). Marchiol or transfer Jaylen Henderson (Texas A&M) provides QB mobility, backed by RBs Jahiem White (845 yards, 5.7 YPC, 7 TDs) and Jaylan Knighton (ex-SMU/Miami). The WR corps, rebuilt via transfers like Cam Vaughn (803 yards, 5 TDs at Jacksonville St.), is underrated, but the O-line, with heavy turnover, showed penalty issues. Defensively, WVU struggled in 2024 (last in Big 12 pass efficiency D, 26-5 TD-INT allowed). New DC Zac Alley adds transfers like DE Jimmori Robinson (10.5 sacks, UTSA), LB Chase Wilson (98 tackles, Colorado St.), S Fred Perry (109 tackles, Jacksonville St.), and CB Michael Coats (Nevada). Special teams are solid with PR/KR Preston Fox, P Oliver Straw, and K Kade Hensley (16/19 FGs).
Ohio’s Navarro, a dual-threat star, keeps them dangerous, but their run defense is a glaring weakness.
Matchup Angle/Analysis
WVU -3.5 faces a ground-game mismatch: Ohio’s run D got shredded by Rutgers’ RBs, and WVU’s Rodriguez-led attack just ran for 393 yards vs. RMU. White, Knighton, and Marchiol could hit 250+ rushing yards if the O-line avoids penalties. Ohio’s Navarro may keep it close with third-down conversions (5/10 vs. Rutgers), but WVU’s revamped D should pressure him. A lookahead to Pitt looms, but WVU’s 20-0-1 MAC record and Rodriguez’s hunger for a road statement lean toward the Mountaineers covering. Likely on my card!
Texas State Bobcats at UTSA Roadrunners
The Battle of I-35 reignites as Texas State (1-0) makes the 57-mile trip to face UTSA (0-1) in San Antonio, with the Roadrunners favored by 4. UTSA leads the series 5-1, but last year Texas State humiliated them 49-10 in San Marcos, ripping off 35 unanswered points and outgaining them 504-334. The Roadrunners seek revenge at the Alamodome, where Jeff Traylor is 29-3 (only losses to Army twice and Houston). Texas State enters with an experience edge (#38 vs #103), but UTSA thrives after a loss (16-8 ATS since 2019).
2024 Recaps
Texas State (8-5, 6-7 ATS): Sun Belt favorites who stumbled vs Old Dominion and Georgia State but closed with a second straight First Responder Bowl win for back-to-back 8-5 seasons.
UTSA (7-6, 7-6 ATS): A rocky AAC campaign with early upsets but finished strong, blasting Coastal Carolina 44-15 in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
2025 Outlooks
Texas State Offense: Ranked #15 in rushing (208 YPG) and #22 passing (269 YPG) LY, but must replace QB Jordan McCloud (3,227 yds, 30 TD), top RB, and three 600-yd WRs. Transfers Yarnell (Pitt), Luster (SMU), and Geriner (Auburn) compete at QB. RB Lincoln Pare (554 yds, 8 TD) and UNLV’s Greg Burrell lead the backfield. WRs Chris Dawn (418 yds, 6 TD) plus transfers Tyrin Smith (UTEP), Mavin Anderson (Cal), and Tiaquelin Mims give options, but OL is thin with only two starters back.
Texas State Defense: Solid LY (24.5 PPG, 358 YPG, led Sun Belt in TFL). Just two starters return: DEs Kalil Alexander and Jo’Laison Landry. Secondary is inexperienced outside of SS Ryan Nolan.
Special Teams: Ranked #27 by Steele but must replace PK Mason Shipley and key returners.
UTSA Offense: Averaged 33 PPG and 451 YPG LY. QB Owen McCown (3,424 yds, 25 TD, 340 rush yds) returns with WRs Willie McCoy (19.1 YPC) and Devin McCuin, TE Houston Thomas, RB Robert Henry (706 yds), and USC transfer A’Marion Peterson. OL brings 100+ career starts.
UTSA Defense: Allowed 30 PPG (#103) and was torched through the air (#124 pass D) despite 42 sacks (#8). Lost top five tacklers including LB Jimmori Robinson. Transfers fill DL; LBs Vic Shaw and Shad Banks add stability. Secondary remains untested.
Special Teams: Reliable under Traylor but retooling with new PK, PR, and possibly punter.
Week 1 Reviews
Texas State 52, Eastern Michigan 27: Racked up 593 total yards, including 606 rushing. QB Brad Jackson (18/26, 214 yds, 4 TD) connected with Beau Sparks (7-82-4). RB Lincoln Pare paced with 167 yds and 1 TD. Pulled away with a 21-0 third quarter run.
Texas A&M 42, UTSA 24: Roadrunners trailed by only 4 in the 3rd before falling. RB Robert Henry exploded for 177 yds and 2 TD, including a 75-yd score. UTSA rushed for 203 total. TAMU QB Marcel Reed posted 289 yds and 4 TD.
Injuries / Suspensions
Texas State: No injuries.
UTSA: LB Cam Cooper (knee) out for year. DL Nnanna Anyanwu likely out. DB Jermarius Lewis missed Wk 1 (status TBD). Other players (Leonard, Martin, Milton, Blaylock, Sylvester) questionable. Adjustments: Wyrick at safety, Shaw as rush LB.
Prediction
Expect fireworks. Texas State showcased firepower in Week 1, but UTSA’s offensive line and McCown should expose the Bobcats’ inexperienced defense. Injuries weaken UTSA’s front vs Texas State’s ground game, yet Traylor’s 16-8 ATS record after losses, plus the revenge spot at home, are meaningful.
Forecast: UTSA 38, Texas State 24.
UTSA most likely on my card.
After reading @iamhuge post, I had to research it. He is on to something for sure!
Wisc vs. Middle Tenn
Wisc (1-0) vs. Middle Tenn (0-1) at Camp Randall. Wisc is -28, with -7.5 1Q and -16.5 1H. A P4 team rebuilding after a down yr vs. a CUSA squad still finding footing under Derek Mason. Wisc DEF impressed in opener, while MTSU was embarrassed by an FCS foe.
Game Overview
Wisc enters as huge fave. They’re off a gritty 17-0 shutout of Miami (OH), showing a revamped DEF worlds better than last yr. MTSU lost 34-14 at home to FCS Austin Peay, their 1st FCS L since 2011.
Recent Perf & Key Stats
Wisc’s Aug 28 opener was a DEF clinic: 17-0 shutout, 1st since 2022. Outgained Miami 353-117, allowed 34 rush yds (22 att), forced 0-9 3rd downs. Huge flip from last yr’s DEF that gave up 165 rush YPG (#13 B1G). Offense efficient but not explosive (17 pts). As -18 fave, they went 0-1 ATS, consistent w/non-conf (0-3 ATS LY). Since ’21, Wisc 5-2 ATS when -20+, though spotty in similar games (e.g., 28-14 W over WMU as -24).
MTSU’s Aug 30 opener: disaster. Outgained 341-153 by Austin Peay. QB Vattiato 15-36 for 104 yds, 2 TD. Run gm: 49 yds. 2024 recap: 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS, outscored 411-217. Only wins vs. Tenn Tech, Kennesaw St, UTEP. Ls all by DD. ATS poison: 3-6 last 9 vs. P4. Pulled a stunner in ’22 (45-31 vs. Miami FL as +25), but mostly blowouts vs. B1G (e.g., 45-0 L at Mich 2019). vs. CUSA, Wisc is 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS, incl. 34-3 W vs. WKU in ’18 as -37. Road woes: 0-5 SU/ATS in last 5 road openers vs. stronger opps.
Injury Updates
Wisc: Starting QB Edwards Jr. sprained knee. Backup Danny O’Neil (SDSU transfer) stepped in: 12-19, 120 yds, 1 TD pass (3-yd to Vinny Anthony), 1 INT, plus 1-yd rush TD. O’Neil started 11 gms as a frosh at SDSU in ’24, battle-tested.
MTSU: no key inj.
Outlooks 2025
Wisc: O’Neil’s mobility/exp adds wrinkle. WR Vinny Anthony is a weapon. Run DEF flipped (165 YPG LY ? 34 in opener) bodes well vs. weak MTSU rush.
MTSU: Yr 1 under Mason brutal (3-9). ’25 exp bump (#107 ? #36 nat’l). Off: Air Raid (#36 pass, #130 rush at 89 YPG). Vattiato (3k yds, 16-10 TD/INT, 29 sacks) returns but loses TE Willis & WR Kelly (to MSU). Retains 4 WRs w/10+ catches, adds UCF transfer Patterson. RB Middlebrook (CUSA All-Frosh) leads, OL adds Auburn’s Harris (339 lbs). DEF bad: 197 rush YPG (#117), #131 pass eff D (27-5 TD-INT allowed), only 20 sacks (#98). Returning DEs Bynum & Buckner are strengths, plus transfer LB Alex Mitchell. Secondary rebuilt w/portal DBs.
Factors
QB Transition: O’Neil steady in relief (TD run sealed gm). Minimal drop-off for Wisc O vs. MTSU’s sieve DEF (341 yds allowed to FCS). Yardage edge (353-117) shows ground control.
DEF Edges: Wisc run stop (34 yds allowed) vs. MTSU’s anemic rush (49 vs. Peay). MTSU pass D gave up 27 TDs LY, fits O’Neil’s short-gm style.
ATS/Motivation: Wisc 5-2 ATS as -20+ since ’21, but 1-5 vs. CUSA. MTSU 2-10 ATS in ’24, 3-6 vs. P4. After FCS humiliation, unlikely to fight. Wisc wants style points pre-B1G slate.
Lines Insight: -7.5 1Q/-16.5 1H fits fast start. MTSU trailed 21-0 early vs. Peay.
Schedule/Exp: Wisc needs blowouts in “buy games” if they want rankings buzz. MTSU’s exp hasn’t clicked, opener proved issues remain.
Final Thoughts
Hammer Wisc -28. DEF should suffocate MTSU O, while O’Neil keeps O moving for 42-7 blowout. MTSU’s Wk 1 flop + history vs. P4 make them fade material. Wisc -16.5 1H for early payout. Good find @iamhuge!
Maryland (1-0) hosts Northern Illinois (1-0) Friday night at SECU Stadium. The Terps ride a 16-game non-conference win streak, the longest in the FBS. NIU aims to channel the upset magic from 2024 but enters as heavy underdogs.
Maryland Terrapins
2024 Recap: The Terps finished 4-8 (4-8 ATS). After a 3-1 start, including a narrow loss to Michigan State, they collapsed, winning only once more (upset of USC).
2025 Outlook: True freshman QB Malik Washington headlines the offense. He flashed dual-threat upside in Week 1 but inherits a depleted WR room. Oklahoma transfer Jalil Farooq must emerge, while TE transfer Dorian Fleming adds a proven target. RB Nolan Ray returns, but depth is thin. The O-line, with four upperclassmen starters, should be improved.
Defensively, Maryland was stout vs. the run in 2024 (137 YPG, #46) but struggled against the pass (#99) and had just 14 sacks (#128). Veterans Daniel Wingate and Michael Harris anchor the LB corps, while FS Jalen Huskey leads a secondary integrating two transfers. New DC Ted Monachino hopes to spark progress.
Special teams remain shaky, though Richmond transfer PK Sean O’Haire (12/12 FGs LY) is promising.
Week 1: Maryland rolled FAU 39-7. Washington went 27-43 for 258 yards and 3 TDs, shaking off a slow start. The defense forced six INTs and scored twice. Penalties (14) were the lone blemish.
Injuries: OL Jaylen Gilchrist (leg) and backup QB Justyn Martin (leg) were carted off. Status TBD. LB N. Avery and DL D. White remain questionable.
Northern Illinois Huskies
2024 Recap: NIU went 8-5 (6-7 ATS), highlighted by a stunning win at Notre Dame. They closed with an OT bowl victory over Fresno State but were plagued by inconsistency.
2025 Outlook: The Huskies lean run-heavy after ranking #16 nationally (204 YPG). With top backs gone, Telly Johnson Jr. steps up, joined by Jaylen Poe. QB Josh Holst adds mobility, but the passing game is thin after losing its top two WRs and TE Grayson Barnes. LT Evan Malcore and transfer C Aidan Tweedy provide some stability.
The defense was elite in 2024 (18.5 PPG allowed, #5 pass D, 36 sacks). LB turnover hurts, but DL Roy Williams (6.5 sacks) and DT Jalonnie Williams return. CB Jacob Finley and transfer FS Jasper Beeler anchor the back end.
Special teams ranked #118 but improved with PK Andrew Glass (15/17 FGs in 2023). Still breaking in a new punter and KR.
Week 1: NIU narrowly escaped Holy Cross 19-17, relying on two kickoff-return TDs. Holst (12-18, 101 yards, 1 INT) exited late with injury. RB Cavon Wright added 77 yards and a TD. The offense sputtered, but the defense held strong.
Injuries: QB Josh Holst is questionable (undisclosed). Others banged up: DL L. Ingold, CB/WR M. Armstrong, QB Jalen Macon. DL S. Senenat is out.
Final Analysis
Maryland’s new QB looks legit, the O-line is solid, and the defense just feasted on FAU. NIU’s defense remains tough, but injuries, especially to Holst could sap their ability to keep pace. If NIU can’t sustain drives on the ground, their defense will tire quickly against Big Ten athletes.
UNC -13 @ Charlotte
Bounce-Back Potential Under Belichick: UNC’s 48-14 drubbing by TCU was embarrassing and worst opener in program history for points allowed but it exposed fixable issues like missed tackles (they were plagued by them) and turnovers (three, including a pick-six and fumble-six). Bill Belichick, in his college debut, emphasized addressing self-inflicted errors in his post-game presser. With a full week (albeit short turnaround) to drill fundamentals, expect a sharper defense. Preseason projections had UNC’s D as “average” in the ACC with upside from transfers like DE Pryce Yates and LB Andrew Simpson (who led with 11 tackles vs. TCU). Charlotte’s offense is anemic (23 PPG in 2024, 218 total yards vs. App State), so UNC could dominate the line of scrimmage and force punts/turnovers.
Offensive Mismatch vs. Charlotte’s Weak Defense: The 49ers got torched for 586 yards and 34 points by Appalachian State, allowing 3.6 YPC rushing and minimal pressure (just one TFL on 38 rushes). Their DL was a mess last year (210 rush YPG allowed, 123rd nationally), and it’s rebuilt with unproven transfers. UNC’s balanced attack (31 PPG in 2024) could exploit this, RB Caleb Hood scored early vs. TCU, and WR Jordan Shipp had 84 yards on four catches. If QB Max Johnson starts (more on that below), he looked efficient in relief (9/11, 103 yards, TD), connecting well with his brother TE Jake Johnson. Charlotte’s “thin secondary” invites explosive plays, and the Tar Heels should control tempo for a 30+ point output.
Talent and Motivation Edge: UNC overhauled with 70+ new players, including a veteran O-line (150+ career starts). They’re motivated to avoid an 0-2 start in Belichick’s regime, especially against an in-state AAC foe. Analytics give UNC an implied 32-18 win (covering -13), and Belichick’s NFL track record suggests quick adjustments. Plus, a split crowd in Charlotte (UNC fans travel well) could feel like a semi-home game.
Historical Context Favoring Blowout: Charlotte ended 2024 at 5-7 with a defense that regressed badly (35 PPG allowed). Their rebuild under new HC Tim Albin includes Power Four QB transfers like Conner Harrell (former UNC backup, 13/24 for 142 yards vs. App State), but the WR and RB rooms are depleted. If UNC gets early stops, this could snowball, similar to how App State rolled up 27 unanswered points on the 49ers.
This screams rebound spot for UNC, they’re the more talented team facing a rebuilding AAC squad with defensive holes. Belichick’s adjustments should fix the tackling woes, and even with QB questions, Johnson’s relief performance suggests the offense can hum against lesser competition. Charlotte simply lacks the firepower to hang if UNC scores 30+. I’d lean yes on covering -13 (or -13.5), projecting a 35-17 win. But if Lopez is limited and the D lags, it could be a 28-17 squeaker failing to cover.
UNC -13 officially on my card.
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