Posted:
#76
I also don't consider a 0.25 unit ML play a bet that's very risk or anything similar to my other ones. Managing risk by betting a small $ for high upside.
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Week 5 write ups
Posted:
#78
Next game: Texas-San Antonio (-6) at Florida Atlantic
Power ratings: UTSA (57th, -1.1) at FAU (71st, 2.9) = projected spread of UTSA -1
The action here makes no sense to me. Florida Atlantic is not a scrub team by any means, at least not anymore. 82% of total bets on UTSA ... and I like UTSA. They have a very good defense, but they aren't invincible. They do have good covers vs. Arizona at and an overrated Houston team, but as a road dog against a decently athletic FAU squad? Let's look at this.
FAU has had a very solid season I believe despite being 1-3 SU, and that's why everyone is betting against them here ... their SU record. At Nebraska - good luck to anyone stopping this running game juggernaut in a paycheck game...vs. Bama at home without their starting QB + best defensive player? They didn't care about this game and were outclassed.
However, they crush Tulsa as a 1 point fave when they got their starting QB back. Then they go all the way up to Wyoming (brutal travel), and are up 16-10 going into the 4th quarter as a dog. They lost, but they covered so who cares? They played well enough vs. an underrated Wyoming team.
UTSA struggled vs. Okie State like everyone will this season. Now they are coming off a bye, but I'm just not sold on them offensively to confidently say they will cover on the road vs. an underrated FAU team. Granted FAU won 6 games last year vs. scrub teams, but they could be better this season as QB Jacquez Johnson has more experience. They took MTSU to OT last year and only lost by 4 at Rice. In addition to FAU being 3-1 ATS this year (yes the Alabama game was suspended, but they were without their best player), and finished 2013 on a 4-0 ATS run.
Don't need to do too much analysis here this won't make my card, FAU does have some weak links on their team no doubt but as a 6 point dog I am a zero unit lean here. Everyone is sleeping on the Owls and I have a feeling they will cost a lot of bettors a lot of $ this weekend.
Pass 
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Posted:
#79
Next game: Akron at Pittsburgh (-20)
Power ratings: Akron (89th, 6.8) at Pittsburgh (69th, 2.3) = projected spread of 7.5
If you want to criticize my power ratings on these two teams go right ahead (please) because that number just doesn't look right to me at all. Could be overrating Akron, but this game won't make my card regardless.
I just don't understand why 86% of the action is on Pittsburgh. Pitt did run for 321 yards vs. FIU, but they still didn't cover which is hard to believe. Not confidence inspiring that Pitt can absolutely roll on offense and only be up 26-16 going into the 4Q, and they were down 16-14 at the half! Pitt didn't score in the first half vs. FIU. They fumbled twice and threw a pick in this game.
Iowa's defense is much better than Akron's, but Pittsburgh still didn't exactly shut down the Iowa offense (Iowa isn't THAT good). Iowa rushed for 3.8 yards/clip which is fairly productive. That's not "shutting them down."
So you basically have 2 cases where Pittsburgh has been average on defense and 2 non-covers.
Akron is hardly a powerhouse, but I wouldn't shocked to see them cover a 20 point spread here. Even if I had Akron ranked 105th in my power ratings, the projected spread is still only -11.
Another game I wanted to review for you guys with lopsided action.
Pass
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Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:
You sickos want'em? You got'em!
Next up on my card: Notre Dame (-12) vs. Syracuse
Power ratings: Notre Dame (12th, -22) vs. Syracuse (76th, 4.2) = projected spread of -26 (neutral field @ East Rutherford)
Syracuse had a very cake schedule their first 2 weeks, then BAM Maryland trounced them to win by 2 TDs despite being an underdog.
I felt Syracuse was overrated prior to their Central Michigan game, made an uneducated bet and didn't know CMU was without their best player Thomas Rawls, and then decided to not play Maryland last week not knowing how they'd react after their heartbreaking loss to WVU.
So, here we go. I'm just not a Syracuse fan at all. I think if you have the personnell at DL and LB (Notre Dame does), then Syracuse can be a simple team to stop. They just don't have a QB. Terrel Hunt is not a good passer. So while Syracuse does average a sick 5.9 yards/carry, I'm just not buying them against a team of the caliber of ND. Let's get to it:
Reason #1: The ND defense has shut down everyone they have played this season. Purdue (who played way above their heads in a nationally televised rivalry game) was 5.9 ypa + 2.2 ypc,
Rice (starting QB) 6.8 ypa + 3.5 ypc, and Michigan was 5.9 ypa + 2.9 ypc. This is a consistent defense we can rely on to get stops + cover a spread. Because we are going up against a rushing offense, I even looked at how Notre Dame did in giving up explosive run plays. Only 9 runs given up of 10+ yards, and ZERO run plays given up of 20+ yards. That will change vs. Syracuse, but we just want to limit Syracuse's offense. We only have to win by 13 points to win the bet.
Despite having a much tougher schedule than Syracuse so far ('Nova, CMU, Maryland), ND also has a better 3rd down defense.
Reason #2: The passing game here is gonna be all ND, which means more points, more first downs, better field position, and a more tired defense. Despite Cuse's weak schedule, they still only rank 90th nationally in def ypa. Everett Golson is 38th nationally in ypa among QBs and 36th in comp %. He also hasn't thrown 1 INT this season. We can trust him in this spot.
Reason #3: Syracuse's defense is going to break. C.J. Brown of Maryland threw for 10.8 ypa/280 yards...to put that in perspective, if his receivers had gotten 2 more yards it would have been a career high!!! Villanova's QB threw for 7.4 ypa and ran for 112 yards. Nova's #1 RB ran for 3.8 ypc. Cuse' defense gave up more passing yards than James Madison, USF, and a bad WVU defense.
Reason #4: Penalties. These can be kind of random, but sometimes they aren't and we have a decent sample size. Notre Dame is 15th in nation in penalties (4/game) and Syracuse is 105th nationally (8/game).
Reason #5: WR Ashton Broyld is out. Led team last year w/ 52 receptions. So even if we were worried about the Syracuse passing game, they are now without one of their best weapons.
My advice: Not my most favorite play of the week because ND is everybody's Super Bowl...I suggest making a 1-2 unit play now, and then waiting until Saturday morning to check the weather. If the wind is 7mph or below in East Rutherford, then you can unload...but check the weather because it will affect ND's offense more than Cuse's offense.
great stuff...GL0
Posted:
#83
Random INT for Texas Tech (0 so far on the season).
#1 CB for Oklahoma State is injured quickly in game he's done sprained ankle
Oklahoma State pass defense I was worried about isn't going to show up.
Not feeling good at all about OK St -14 to say the least 
Good news is TT predictably giving up a lot of yards with penalties.
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