Week 5 write ups

Hey guys, long time reader, first time poster

Looking forward to having a big week 5.

First pick: Oklahoma State -14 vs. Texas Tech
Power ratings: Oklahoma State (#21, -17.5) vs. Texas Tech (7.5) = projected spread of -28.

Getting about 2 touchdowns here in value and this is a 4 unit play and my pick of the week.

Stats here are a little deceiving with Tech. Only allowing 5.2 ypa on defense, but their 3 opponents have been Central Ark, @ UTEP, vs. Arkansas (who didn't throw the ball). Tech is very very small on defense and their LBers aren't playing well. I love fading Kliff Kingsbury he is not a head coach despite what ESPN wants you to believe. Huge coaching mismatch here with Gundy. Am somewhat concerned with Okie State's pass defense (9.8 ypa allowed vs. Mo State's starting QB) , but Okie State backs that up with only 3.1 ypc allowed on the ground.

Daxx Garman has had a couple impressive games in a row and could be an upgrade at QB over JW Walsh. Very impressed with O State's run game vs. a good UTSA defense top 3 RBs 4.0 ypc avg. UTEP #1 RB 6.5 ypc vs. Tech.

Stats: Texas Tech also averaging 10 penalties per game. OSt 7th in 3rdD, TT 77th in 3rdD (OSt with much tougher schedule). Tech QB Webb vs. average Arkansas defense = 5.6 ypa + 2 INTs (at home).

Again, I can't find a reason to like Tech at all. I was all over Arkansas ML vs. Tech 2 weeks ago. Not sure why the lover affair bettors have for Tech because they are horrible. I expect Okie State to win this game by 4 TDs.

 welcome - like the pick - GL 

Next pick: California -13.5 vs. Colorado
Power ratings: California (33rd, -11.5) vs. Colorado (95th, 7.7) = projected spread of -22.

I already bought units at this pick at -12 and -10, but still feel there is value for you on the board at -13.5.

Colorado is horrible. I was all over them last week with a 5-unit play vs. Hawaii -7, but the performance for CU was uninspiring to say the least. Hawaii's D is really bad and CU failed to score in the 2nd half. QB Liufau only managed 6.4 ypa + 2 ints. Cali has 26th ypa defense + 5 ints on the year should have no problems here.

Colorado has gotten 2 covers in a row but I'm not impressed. ASU QB injured in 3qtr + barely cover a Hawaii team with brutal travel schedule + beat UMASS by 3.

Everyone might be down on Cali for allowing 36 pts in 4Q vs. Arizona, but that's a fluke. Arizona's top 2 RBs only 61 yards rush in that game.

Love soph QB Jared Goff 65%, 10.3 ypa, 5-1 TD/INT ratio.

Bet the Golden Bears before this gets to -14 for a 3/4 unit play. They will be ticked off they blew that Arizona game and we are getting them at a great price.

Thanks mega. I'm pretty giddy about your response I'm a big-time fan

On OKA State.

Cal is to undisciplined and has a bad defense to be giving up 2 touchdowns to any conference team but gl

Next pick: Louisiana Tech +32.5 vs. Auburn
Power ratings: Auburn (13th, -21.5) vs. LA Tech (53rd, -2.3) = projected spread of -27...and if anything here guys I could be seriously overrating Auburn.

Look, sometimes as a capper, you just gotta say some guys are flukes and take advantage. Northwestern State vs. Louisiana Tech = FLUKE and so as a capper you have to play the markets. Sell high, buy low. Well guess what, Tech losing that game was the best possible scenario for us as gamblers because now we get an AMAZING price of -32.5. Tech turned the ball over 5x, but their averages in that game aren't horrible. Defense: 5.9 ypa, 2.7 ypc, 5/15 3rdD, only 307 total yards.

Basically what Vegas is saying is that the disparity b/w Auburn + LA Tech is the same as Mich State + Wyoming, Wisconsin + USF, and TCU + SMU. I just don't agree with that.

Cody Sokol is a very very good QB. Look at his ypa game log this season: 8.2, 7.8, 8.9, 5.3 (@ Oklahoma). Well guess what Auburn doesn't do well? Idk if you watched the KState game but I did. That Auburn defense is vulnerable vs. the pass. Only 47th in ypa def but that includes Arkansas + SJSU. SJSU lit up Auburn 8.1 ypa for starting QB, 7.2 ypa for backup.

I think we were all pretty unimpressed with the Auburn offense vs. KSU. Dropped passes and they miss RB Tre Mason big time. LA Tech 26th def ypa. I watched their North Texas game (had LA Tech ML as my pick of the week) and they have some good athletes no doubt. Also a big fan of Skip Holtz.

Think about the spot here: Auburn has their SEC slate coming off, and LA Tech coming off a loss. I can't imagine Auburn will be focused for this game.

I also like Louisiana Tech +6000 as a crazy epic ML play (very very small bet like .1-.25 units). I think they have a chance at an upset here.

Welcome, and thanks for sharing your thoughts.  I like the Louisiana Tech play quite a bit for some reasons you have mentioned and others you have not. 

  

California has 38th def in yards per play + 48th rush D in ypc. Not saying they are great, but they aren't bad.

What reasons did I not mention?

Next pick: Utah -13 vs. Washington State

Power ratings: Utah (19th, -18.5) vs. Washington State (82nd, 5.4) = projected spread of -27.

Too many bettors lost money on Oregon late Saturday night, and now think Washington State is a juggernaut. They aren't. This is still the same team that lost home opener vs. an average Rutgers team + lost by 11 @ Nevada.

Utah beat UM on the road, but they still don't get respect. Still not a top 25 team on the polls. How does this matter as a handicapper you ask? Well look at East Carolina last week. Big win off VA Tech on the road, still no respect in the polls, then they clobber UNC in another prove-it game.

This is a prove-it game for Utah vs. Pac 12 team. Utah held UM to 3.3 ypc, 4.9 ypa + 4 turnovers. Utah held Fresno #1 RB to 4.1 ypc (not great, but not horrible either).

When you excuse Connor Halliday's bloodbath vs. an overrated Rutgers team: 6.8 ypa 2 ints vs. Nevada + 6.9 ypa vs. Oregon...and Utah's defense might be better than Oregon's. This cover all comes down to Utah's ability to stop the Wash State passing game...and there are some concerns. Utah #69 ypa def in 2013, #55 ypa def in 2012.

My powers could very well be underrating Washington State + overrating Utah. But let's adjust it. If Utah is #28 in powers (I would put them no lower) and Wash State is #65 in powers (no higher), that still creates a projected spread of -18. So even if my analysis is slightly off, I still think there's a lot of value with this game. Thoughts?

keep em coming 

All I'm saying is Cal is still the team that only won 2 games ly, Check out how much yardage they give up on penalties. ...their style of offense doesn't know how to bleed clock, that's why northwestern almost came back and zona did....I think cal 1st half is a better play they seem to start fast and Colorado takes a while to get going

^you're not going against him.  he's not wagering on Colorado, just giving a different perspective.

keep the good write ups comin 87! 

Ok st is a loser, I like half your picks but I would definitely stay off ok st. Tech will win this game outright and if not will go to the wire. I aint hating bro that's just my opinion. I like the write up's. I also think you are acting like those power ranking are the gospel we both know if it was that easy bookmakers would be out of business. Good luck bro don't bet too many games and be professional about it.