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Week 5 write ups

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Posted: #51
Next game: Wake Forest at Louisville (-21.5)
Power ratings: Wake Forest (112th, 11.6) at Louisville (34th, -11) = projected spread of -25.5

Tried fading Wake Forest last week with Army, but was unsuccessful. Probably stupid to bet Army on the road, but had they managed to score at all in second half I think I would have had a much better chance at winning the bet, also Army lost 2 fumbles so that was brutal. They certainly were able to run the ball successfully vs. Wake @ 5.8 yards/clip. 

Wake struggled to move the ball on Army at home...6.8 ypa (that's average) and only 3.3 ypc. #1 RB Robinson only 3.5 ypc with longest being 15 yards. 

I think Utah State has an underrated defense, and Wake struggled mightly. Only 3/15 on 3rd down, 3 turnovers. QB Wolford was 40%, 5.1 ypa, 2 INTs. #1 RB Robinson only 1.4 ypc, #1 RB Reynolds -1.5 ypc (longest run of 1 yard).  

The only memory most people have of UL is the Miami game. Well, I think UL could be better than they were in W1 mainly because Reggie Bonnafon will be starting Saturday. I'm not a fan of QB Gardner he is horrible. 

Fwiw, UL struggled to run the ball vs. FIU. Outside of the QBs carries, only averaged 2 yards/clip. #1 RB Brown only 3.7 ypc vs. a good UVA defense. 

UL took care of business defensively vs. FIU who I consider in comparable talent to Wake Forest. Def stats impressive across the board in that game. Def stats also look good vs. Virginia. 

Basically, UL covering all comes down to their QB play because I think Wake will likely dare UL to throw the ball. WR Devante Parker is still out. Basically, we are putting the 21.5 points we need on true freshman QB Bonnafon's shoulders. I love Petrino as a QB coach and offensive playcaller. 

Power ratings definitely say to lean UL here and lay the points, but UL still without their best offensive playmaker + more than 3 TDs. Also keep in mind UL failed to score a TD in 2nd half vs. FIU. 

Pass, but will likely regret not playing UL -21.5 . Would be making this a play if the # was 19.5 
 
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Posted: #52
Definitely I prefer UL as more of a 1st half play because they could pull starters in 4th QTR. If you can get a 1st half UL of below -13 I would look into that ... just know I won't be playing it so don't blame me 
 
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Posted: #53
SUPER Write-ups. Excited to see how your picks turn out. Good Luck and keep up the great work!!

Cheers

 
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Posted: #54
 
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Posted: #55
Next game: Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion (-3.5)
Power ratings: MTSU (59th, -0.5) at Old Dom (74th, 3.8) = projected spread of PICK'EM

Line opened at -1, but after the ODU victory over Rice everybody is now on the ODU bandwagon. 

MTSU really hasn't had an overly impressive performance this year. WKU took them to OT so they didn't win/cover convincingly although they did cover. A good Memphis team easily covered them, MTSU down 35-17 with 5:00 left in 4QTR vs. Minnesota that game could have gone either way. Down 28-0 at the half vs. Minny. 

Memphis racked up 480 total yards including 5.1 ypc. MTSU QB Grammer threw for 6.8 ypa no pass TDs, 1 INT nothing special. 

Basically what we have so far from MTSU is an average passing game + average defense. So if anything, 59th in my power ratings is probably overrating this team...so the spread is probably right where it should be. 

ODU has been solid this year, but QB Taylor Heinicke for me a little inconsistent. Throw out the Eastern Michigan game because that was played in a tsunami which skewed everything. Heinicke 5.6 ypa, 2 tds, 1 int vs. NC State. However, he was also 10.0 ypa, 5 tds, 0 ints, 430 pass yards, 36 rush yards vs. Rice. 

We have a little Jeckyll/Hyde with Heinicke but we should expect him to get to 7.5 ypa to calibrate that stat vs. MTSU. 

ODU defense nothing special vs. Rice, 8.0 ypa vs. starting QB, 5.3 ypc allowed on the ground...526 total yards for Rice + 10/16 on 3rd down. 

ODU will also be missing starting RG and RT for this game, but doubt MTSU has the defensive playmakers to take advantage and I doubt those guys are NFL prospects. 

This game is just too close to call. Slight leanage to ODU, make sure to check the weather for the Friday night lights in Virginia. Both defenses are average, slight offensive edge with ODU but nothing spectacular to suggest this play. 

Pass    










 
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Posted: #56
Great Read....






 
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Posted: #57
Guys, after looking it over, I wanted to let you know that I have somewhat changed my mind on North Carolina vs. Clemson. Wanted to know why UNC defense isn't as good as last year and I found out. 

When you look at all the seniors from last year: Tre Boston, Kareem Martin, Jabari Price, Tim Jackson, Terry Shankle ... all highly productive and experienced. Martin accounted for 1/3 of his teams' sacks and nearly 1/4 of TFLs last year and made everybody else look good. You look at UNC's stats on defense now and nobody stands out. 

Then you factor in Ebron drafted #10 overall, a C and S drafted in 4th round...it just adds up for a team not loaded with talent. 

You look at UNC's OL and they are very small and can be easily manhandled by a team like Clemson. 

Not a huge unit play because Clemson is starting a very talented true freshman at QB and Clemson coming off a brutal loss. 

Recommended 1-unit play Clemson -14.5 

 
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Posted: #58
The spread going down on Notre Dame to -9/-9.5 is a joke. Such a good #. Love this bet. 

I bought 2 more units of ND at -9.5 for good measure. 4 units total for the week
 
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Posted: #59
To organize all of my picks guys: 

Oklahoma State -14 ... 4 units
Notre Dame -12/-9.5 ... 4 units total
Clemson -14.5 ... 1 unit
California -13.5 ... 2 units
Louisiana Tech +32.5 ... 3 units
Louisiana Tech +6500 ML ... 0.25 units
Utah -13 ... 2 units
Texas State +4 ... 2 units
Texas State +165 ... 1 unit
Penn State -10.5 ... 2 units
 
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Posted: #60
 
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Posted: #61

Next game: Nevada (-5) at San Jose State
Power ratings: Nevada (60th, -0.2) at SJSU (96th, 7.8) = projected spread of -5

Not really sure where to start here because my info is all over the place. Let's just start with...

Wolfpack O vs. Spartan D --> Cody Fajardo is a beast. If he doesn't beat you with his arm (29/39, 321 yds, 3 tds, 0 ints vs. Zona) then he beats you with his legs (16 carries, 100 yards vs. Wash St).  

Last year, Fajardo beat SJSU with both @ 75%/7.4 ypa/104 rush yards. Suffice to say, looks like his senior year will be his best yet. 

Spartan D with terrible stats: #122 def ypc, #15 def ypa but this includes 2 games vs. Minny backup RsFresh QB (7 attmpts) + North Dakota. 

Coming off a bye, Nevada will be heavily focused on pounding SJSU. Their coaches clearly know how to play to the defenses' weaknesses as evidenced by 2 completely different game plans vs. Arizona and Washington State. 

SJSU also small on DL. Starting DTs weigh 280 + 285. Starting DEs weigh 252+258. 

Spartan O vs. Wolfpack D --> Not a big fan of what happened in previous years, but LY Nevada fwiw did hold SJSU top 2 RBs to 3.9 ypc. 

Nevada got beat by Arizona's speed they won't face vs. SJSU, but held Wash State to 6.8 ypa, 1 TD, 2 ints. Also 2.1 ypc in that game. 

Blake Jurich takes over for SJSU this year. Got off to great start vs. North Dakota, but Nevada is not North Dakota. Last game vs. average Minny defense: 14/29, 48%, 5.6 ypa, 2 ints. 

Here is what SJSU weighs on their starting OL from LT to RT: 302, 290, 291, 289, 290. Might add a lot of those guys are tall and have thin frames. 

We still have to stay disciplined to the power ratings here as 5 points is still a fairly difficult spread to cover for a lot of road teams. But I think Nevada is much better last season, they are coming off a bye, and they have the better athletes on both sides of the ball. 

I suggest a 1-2 unit play for you. Making Nevada -5 a 1 unit play for myself. Add it to the card. 
 
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Posted: #62
I really enjoy the write ups and I really think this is what covers should be about. So please don't take offense to what am about to say, because I am sure I am just being hyper critical. 

But when you have so many games it seems to devalue that person as someone to follow (IMO). I guess if I am going to follow a guy, I hope he has maybe 2 or 3 games that he feels strongly about and really knows the ins and outs of those teams. But when someone has like 10 games I am thinking they just want to go 6 - 4 and I will probably follow the 3 games that go 0 fer 3 or 1 fer 2.  

And I get it. If I want to follow you and just bet two games, I should follow the two four unit plays as they are your strongest plays. Anyway, good luck. Lets see how it goes.
 
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Posted: #63
What are your plays.
 
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Posted: #64
Rice, Texas Tech and Arkansas. 
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Peewee2820:

I really enjoy the write ups and I really think this is what covers should be about. So please don't take offense to what am about to say, because I am sure I am just being hyper critical. 

But when you have so many games it seems to devalue that person as someone to follow (IMO). I guess if I am going to follow a guy, I hope he has maybe 2 or 3 games that he feels strongly about and really knows the ins and outs of those teams. But when someone has like 10 games I am thinking they just want to go 6 - 4 and I will probably follow the 3 games that go 0 fer 3 or 1 fer 2.  

And I get it. If I want to follow you and just bet two games, I should follow the two four unit plays as they are your strongest plays. Anyway, good luck. Lets see how it goes.

I think that's fair. But I'm doing 9 games and that's it. gl this weekend
 
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Posted: #66
BOL! 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #67
Look at it this way peewee: Picking 9 out of 51 college games is equivalent to picking 2-3 NFL games this weekend because less games to chose from in NFL obv
 
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Posted: #68
Great write ups! 100% with you on Texas State ML. 
 
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Posted: #69
a nice addition to Covers  -  I enjoyed the read.... best of luck
 
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Posted: #70
Nice Reading 

Keep it Up Brother 

Best of Luck 

excited to see ur 9 Plays 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #71
Very solid leg work. I actually read your write ups last week on Walter football forums. Glad to see you post here now as well.

I also like to play more than 2-4 games flukes happen but if I can spend my bankroll out over a few games after crunching the numbers. I feel that to be a successful plan. Going 60/70 % consistently is a sharp way to play.
I believe in my ability to read lines, that said one can't expect a 100% success rate. But by spreading bets out with reasonably high percentages you can limit losses.
Anyway by reading your breakdowns it helps clear out some of the fog.
Thanks for the write ups keep them coming and glad to have you in the forum.
BOL
 
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Posted: #72
Next game: Texas Christian (-32.5) at Southern Methodist
Power ratings: TCU (20th, -18) at SMU (Last #128, 14.0) = projected spread of -29

I had a 4-unit play last week on Texas A&M at -30.5. Sorry, but if you didn't get it on SMU while they were overrated even as 30+ point dogs, then I just think you are late to the party. 

I'm not saying TCU can't cover this, they just aren't as explosive offensively as Texas A&M. Then again, they could also have a defense better than Texas A&M, but to demolish a team in a spread like this on the road, you're gonna need an explosive offense like A&M. 

June Jones quit, everyone thought the interim coach would make a difference last week, it didn't, and now everyone is selling SMU. 

As Lee Corso would say, "Hold it right here!"

Just because SMU is terrible doesn't mean they are going to 0-12 this season ATS. They will cover some games definitely because the spreads are going to be way too high. SMU is going to get some garbage points in the 4th quarter against backups when head coaches are going to want to rest their starters on O and D. 

I think TCU vs. Samford is a great box score to base this game on because Samford and SMU are similar in talent right now. TCU was favored by 33.5 points in that game, and barely covered by 0.5 points (talk about a SWEAT). You could also make the case Samford > SMU I guess as they have won their next two games 
115-21, but I don't want to put money on that vs. a D1 team. 

TCU only with 7.2 ypa in that game! That's a huge stat vs. an FBS defense. Not impressed at all there. 

Handicapping isn't about picking against really bad teams. If it were, anyone could do this. Handicapping is about picking the right teams, at the right time, AT THE RIGHT NUMBER (and the latter is the most important of the 3). 

Maybe TCU demolishes SMU this weekend. But it wouldn't be the first time a team has overlooked a team like SMU or gave up a backdoor cover in the 2nd half. 

I'm not a gambler, I'm a handicapper. I'll take my money elsewhere. 

Pass   
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by TheColonel14:

Very solid leg work. I actually read your write ups last week on Walter football forums. Glad to see you post here now as well.

I also like to play more than 2-4 games flukes happen but if I can spend my bankroll out over a few games after crunching the numbers. I feel that to be a successful plan. Going 60/70 % consistently is a sharp way to play.
I believe in my ability to read lines, that said one can't expect a 100% success rate. But by spreading bets out with reasonably high percentages you can limit losses.
Anyway by reading your breakdowns it helps clear out some of the fog.
Thanks for the write ups keep them coming and glad to have you in the forum.
BOL

Thanks man take care           
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

To organize all of my picks guys: Oklahoma State -14 ... 4 unitsNotre Dame -12/-9.5 ... 4 units totalClemson -14.5 ... 1 unitCalifornia -13.5 ... 2 unitsLouisiana Tech +32.5 ... 3 unitsLouisiana Tech +6500 ML ... 0.25 unitsUtah -13 ... 2 unitsTexas State +4 ... 2 unitsTexas State +165 ... 1 unitPenn State -10.5 ... 2 units



Correct me if I'm wrong, you just told a guy your only playing 9 games, when I see 12 bets posted here and you have a play on Nevada as well to make it 13!!!
 
 
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Posted: #75
I have multiple bets on the same game. I look at it in terms of leans/feel for games not in terms of # of total bets. 

So yeah I might have multiple bets on the same game to take advantage of a spread going up or down, and I might hedge a bet betting the spread and ML to minimize my risk. 
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