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Week 4 Line Move Review

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Posted: Sep. 23, 2012 - 10:27 PM ET #1

Might be worth a look to see if there are any learnings here. Appreciate any feedback, note I'm just using the Don Best free odds so I may not have the entire history (or the correct opening lines) and Vegas Insider for public % of bets.

I'd say a positive sign is when the public is on a favorite (especially above 70%) and the line moves towards the dog or a public dog (40% or greater) and the line moves toward the favorite. This obviously isn't a golden rule, but in combination with your handicapping of the game maybe useful. Also a closer look at this over time may reveal trends.

FSU Open -12 Close -14.5 Result 49-37 Win by 12 No Cover 56% public on Clemson

Penn St Open -9 Close -7 (6.5) Result Win by 11 Cover 62% public on Penn St

West Virginia Open -27 Close -26 Result Win by 10 No Cover 75% public on W. Virginia

Wisconsin Open -17.5 Close -17.5 Result Win by 11 No Cover 55% public on Wisconsin

Georgia Open -14 Close -15.0 Result Win by 45 Cover 76% public on Georgia

Oregon Open -23.5 Close -20.5 Result Win by 49 Cover 60% public on Oregon

UCLA Open -11.5 Close -8 Result Lost by 7 No Cover 90% of public on UCLA

TCU Open -16.5 Close -18.5 Result Win by 20 Cover 81% of public on Virginia?? ( I recall seeing the public on TCU but this is what VI showed)

LSU Open -17.5 Close -19.0 (20) Result Win by 2 No Cover 80% of public on LSU

G. Tech Open -12.0 Close -14.0 Result Lost by 6 No Cover 54% of public on Miami?? (I recall seeing the public on G Tech but this is what VI showed)

Florida Open -25.5 Close -23.5 Result Win by 38 Cover 81% of public on Florida

S. Carolina Open -9.5 Close -10 Result Win by 21 Cover 53% of public on S. Carolina

N. Dame Open -5.0 Close -6.0 Result Win by 7 Cover 51% of public on N. Dame

Oklahoma Open -14.5 Close 15.5 Result Lost by 5 No Cover 59% of public on K State

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Posted: Sep. 23, 2012 - 10:44 PM ET #2

Interesting - thanks.

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Posted: Sep. 23, 2012 - 10:49 PM ET #3

Good stuff

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Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 1:03 AM ET #4

JBone-

It's called reverse line movement and is a very useful tool! I've been using it as my main strategy for over a year now and have done very well. (Outside of the first 2 weeks this NCAAF season.) I start to cap games once I see which games have reverse line movement.

What it does, it tells you where the sharp, respected or big money bets are going. The UCLA, C. Mich, Temple and Bowling Green games this past week were prime examples. Sharps aren't right all the time, but they are right more times than not.

It's easiest to sift through when sharps are on the dog. It will look just like the C. Mich and UCLA games. Huge betting % on the favorite with the line moving the other way. Tougher to find who the sharps are on when they take a favorite. Large bet % on the fav, but the line will move with the favorite. Tough to tell if it's sharp or public money making the line move. Stick with it for a while and you will get a feel for it. BTW, I CRUSHED CBB doing this last season!

Another tip....... I use vegasinsider.com, and use the number posted from sportsbook.com as the opening number to work off of. That's what I consider the "true" opening number. Handful of lines move 3-5 points within the first hour or so of release. Can get confusing trying to figure out where the line really settled at for an opener, so I simply use the first number posted by sportsbook.com. GL

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Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 1:09 AM ET #5

Couple of other thoughts after I posted.

Use multiple sites for betting %. I use VI, pregame.com and thespread.com. You will see that they vary, and you will feel more comfortable when all 3 are telling you the same thing.

Also, I mentioned before you will get a feel, but don't jump the gun on half a point or a point line movement. In NCAAF anyway. Once I see reverse line movement of 1.5 points or more is when I start to get serious about it. The number of points means different things in different sports and level. For example.... 1 point in NCAAF not that big of a deal. 1 point in NFL....IS a big deal. 2 points in NCAAB not huge, 2 points in NBA is huge. You will get a handle on it the more you do it.

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Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 5:37 AM ET #6

Quote Originally Posted by BoiseState25:

JBone-

It's called reverse line movement and is a very useful tool! I've been using it as my main strategy for over a year now and have done very well. (Outside of the first 2 weeks this NCAAF season.) I start to cap games once I see which games have reverse line movement.

What it does, it tells you where the sharp, respected or big money bets are going. The UCLA, C. Mich, Temple and Bowling Green games this past week were prime examples. Sharps aren't right all the time, but they are right more times than not.

It's easiest to sift through when sharps are on the dog. It will look just like the C. Mich and UCLA games. Huge betting % on the favorite with the line moving the other way. Tougher to find who the sharps are on when they take a favorite. Large bet % on the fav, but the line will move with the favorite. Tough to tell if it's sharp or public money making the line move. Stick with it for a while and you will get a feel for it. BTW, I CRUSHED CBB doing this last season!

Another tip....... I use vegasinsider.com, and use the number posted from sportsbook.com as the opening number to work off of. That's what I consider the "true" opening number. Handful of lines move 3-5 points within the first hour or so of release. Can get confusing trying to figure out where the line really settled at for an opener, so I simply use the first number posted by sportsbook.com. GL

I think you may be on to something. I'm not sure how to know where the big money is but when a line moved, say from 26 to 27.5, the favorite usually covered. When a total went from 78.5 to 80, it usually went over.

This weekend I went 1-5. Those 5 games, although I got a better line than what it opened at, it wasn't even close. Eg: Tennessee went from -33.5 to -32. They didn't cover. The one game I won was the Baylor Over and the total had increased.

So basically, always try to bet where the line got worst if you want the favorite? Makes sense because if Vegas/sharps believe a fav will cover the 21.5 points and move the line to 23, they will most likely cover the 23 as well.

Quote Originally Posted by BoiseState25:

JBone-

It's called reverse line movement and is a very useful tool! I've been using it as my main strategy for over a year now and have done very well. (Outside of the first 2 weeks this NCAAF season.) I start to cap games once I see which games have reverse line movement.

What it does, it tells you where the sharp, respected or big money bets are going. The UCLA, C. Mich, Temple and Bowling Green games this past week were prime examples. Sharps aren't right all the time, but they are right more times than not.

It's easiest to sift through when sharps are on the dog. It will look just like the C. Mich and UCLA games. Huge betting % on the favorite with the line moving the other way. Tougher to find who the sharps are on when they take a favorite. Large bet % on the fav, but the line will move with the favorite. Tough to tell if it's sharp or public money making the line move. Stick with it for a while and you will get a feel for it. BTW, I CRUSHED CBB doing this last season!

Another tip....... I use vegasinsider.com, and use the number posted from sportsbook.com as the opening number to work off of. That's what I consider the "true" opening number. Handful of lines move 3-5 points within the first hour or so of release. Can get confusing trying to figure out where the line really settled at for an opener, so I simply use the first number posted by sportsbook.com. GL

I think you may be on to something. I'm not sure how to know where the big money is but when a line moved, say from 26 to 27.5, the favorite usually covered. When a total went from 78.5 to 80, it usually went over.

This weekend I went 1-5. Those 5 games, although I got a better line than what it opened at, it wasn't even close. Eg: Tennessee went from -33.5 to -32. They didn't cover. The one game I won was the Baylor Over and the total had increased.

So basically, always try to bet where the line got worst if you want the favorite? Makes sense because if Vegas/sharps believe a fav will cover the 21.5 points and move the line to 23, they will most likely cover the 23 as well.

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Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 11:31 PM ET #7

Boise St 25,

Thanks for the info on the other sites.

Yes I agree that the reserve line moves are a very good indicator (not 100% but much better than 50%). You have to use some handicapping on the game as well. The Oregon St game was pretty obvious this week, sometimes they don't stand out as much (especially in the NFL).

But I'm also trying to draw out a clearer picture on some of the non line movements, subtle movements, or what I like to call as "decoy" movements. A decoy movement was the Oregon game. Because a lot of the public liked Arizona (I'd call 40% a public dog) and the line moved 3 pts I'd say that the line move was a decoy...encouraging Arizona and discouraging Oregon. Same thing with LSU.

I'd say books try and avoid action from sharps and are more than willing to take the risk on public money. Moving the lines in a decoy fashion might seem like a risk in attracting sharp action or alternatively maybe it causes pause for sharps who are not entirely sure about that game.

Seems like when you do spot a genuine reserve line move, the line moves early and often the game is not even close (ex. Oregon St...never really at risk in that game of losing vs the spread and they won outright).

Like I said, I don't have solid conclusions on the other line moves but think it is worth discussing more and reviewing on weekly basis. Any help appreciated.

Note also Boise, if your not already doing it you should consider placing your primary bet on the money line on underdogs with reserve line movements and hedge (amounts are up to your risk appetite) with a point spread bet. Ex. Oregon State +300 bet $100 and Oregon State +10 bet $55. Instead of risking say $165 on a point spread only bet you risk $155 split as above with the upside of winning $350 rather than $150 and possibly only losing $50 instead of the full $155.

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Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 11:33 PM ET #8

Above post replace "reserve" with "reverse", dyslexic after a grinder day at the office.

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Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 11:40 PM ET #9

JBone,

Couple of thoughts on your post.....

First off, I do believe Vegas sets "trap lines" (though not as often as some believe) however, I do not believe they set "trap movement." Think of the lines and movement as a "market." The total number of bets and ultimately money wagered on certain teams create a "Market" for what the line should be.

As for the Arizona game, that line movement was indicative of the betting market. On all 3 of the sites I check, Arizona was receiving significantly more action. Therefore, the line came down. That wouldn't qualify for us using reverse line movement.

I don't believe books try to avoid sharp action. They have no choice. Their line is their line. If they get pounded by sharps than so be it. They can't say no if a respected capper plops a huge bet on them. Remember ultimatly what we are doing with reverse line movement........ and that is finding out what side the sharps are on, so we can bet with them.

Two other things to look at and keep track of. Line movement is important, but the numbers tell us more. If a line moves through a key number (3,4,7,10,14 etc.) it is a significant sign of what we are looking for. Is it important if a line moves from say 8 to 9.5? Yes, but I give more value to a line moving from 6.5 to 7.5. Of course, when heavy bet % is on the other side.

Last thing, is we can still find value if the line doesn't move at all. Say team A is -7 over team B. Team A recieves 90% of the action, yet the line doesn't move. To me, that is a sign that sharp money is offsetting public money. If I remember correctly, the Utah vs. Utah St game was very similar to this. Line may have moved a half point, but the big thing was lopsidded action on Utah, with the line staying firm. Now that I think of it, line may have had reverse movement to 6.5 right before kick. But you see what I'm getting at.

I know I've said it before, but you will get a better feel for it the more you do it. Don't be afraid either to just track it for a while if your not comfortable laying money on these games. When I first came upon this, I was hesitant to bet the games as I often was shaking my head at who I was supposed to take. But after tracking for a month or so, I started playing those teams and have been doing well ever since.

Thanks for the suggestion on ML. Not a bad idea at all.

GL!

JBone,

Couple of thoughts on your post.....

First off, I do believe Vegas sets "trap lines" (though not as often as some believe) however, I do not believe they set "trap movement." Think of the lines and movement as a "market." The total number of bets and ultimately money wagered on certain teams create a "Market" for what the line should be.

As for the Arizona game, that line movement was indicative of the betting market. On all 3 of the sites I check, Arizona was receiving significantly more action. Therefore, the line came down. That wouldn't qualify for us using reverse line movement.

I don't believe books try to avoid sharp action. They have no choice. Their line is their line. If they get pounded by sharps than so be it. They can't say no if a respected capper plops a huge bet on them. Remember ultimatly what we are doing with reverse line movement........ and that is finding out what side the sharps are on, so we can bet with them.

Two other things to look at and keep track of. Line movement is important, but the numbers tell us more. If a line moves through a key number (3,4,7,10,14 etc.) it is a significant sign of what we are looking for. Is it important if a line moves from say 8 to 9.5? Yes, but I give more value to a line moving from 6.5 to 7.5. Of course, when heavy bet % is on the other side.

Last thing, is we can still find value if the line doesn't move at all. Say team A is -7 over team B. Team A recieves 90% of the action, yet the line doesn't move. To me, that is a sign that sharp money is offsetting public money. If I remember correctly, the Utah vs. Utah St game was very similar to this. Line may have moved a half point, but the big thing was lopsidded action on Utah, with the line staying firm. Now that I think of it, line may have had reverse movement to 6.5 right before kick. But you see what I'm getting at.

I know I've said it before, but you will get a better feel for it the more you do it. Don't be afraid either to just track it for a while if your not comfortable laying money on these games. When I first came upon this, I was hesitant to bet the games as I often was shaking my head at who I was supposed to take. But after tracking for a month or so, I started playing those teams and have been doing well ever since.

Thanks for the suggestion on ML. Not a bad idea at all.

GL!

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Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 11:43 PM ET #10

I always think of one more thing after I post.......

Here in Vegas, betting limits are low until Thursday. Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon can provide info if we see a big shift in line movement. If we come across a 2 point movement in a matter of hours on Thursday......... Good chance respected money just went big on a particular side.

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Posted: Sep. 26, 2012 - 12:29 AM ET #11

Boise,

Good stuff.

I'm not sure they set trap line movements either but keep in mind when your looking at these sites you are seeing bet % in terms of # of bets, NOT the % of money. So the number I had from VI on the Arizona game was 60% of the bets were on Oregon. If sharp money was on Oregon you would have thought that the line would have stayed the same or gone up to encourage Arizona money. And if sharps were on Arizona, then they were badly wrong.

Contrary to popular belief that books want even action on all games, they do not. If the line setting has done its job in making the outcome a 50/50 chance, and let's say there is $7500 on the favority and $2500 on the dog, the book is getting 3 to 1 odds on a 50/50 proposition (even). I'd take that all day long!

Thus, I do think they want to avoid sharp action as it ends up stealing their profits.

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Posted: Sep. 26, 2012 - 12:36 AM ET #12

....and I'm sure some people would argue that the line setting doesn't make the outcome 50/50. True on individual games as can be seen in the large errors in some of the games (ex. Oregon beat the spread by +/-29).

However, 1 game isn't statistically significant and thus over say 1000 games it will revert to 50/50 (as any honest gambler himself will notice as well, you might have a 9-1 week but over the season or years and with lots of bets it will be tough to beat 50%).

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