I think I need to get on ND wagon this week... GL amd
Yeah, I think it's a good play buddy. They showed me a lot last week in terms of their psyche. As long as they don't believe their season is over then I think ND is an excellent play at -6 against a lesser skill set.
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Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:
I think I need to get on ND wagon this week... GL amd
Yeah, I think it's a good play buddy. They showed me a lot last week in terms of their psyche. As long as they don't believe their season is over then I think ND is an excellent play at -6 against a lesser skill set.
amd, i'm a michigan fan and even i was looking to take sd state this week but something about this line looks very strange to me. it opened at 8 when i was expecting a 5 or 4.5, and every capper in here is quick to jump at the points (no offense). something looks fishy, michigan shouldn't be such a big favorite in this game but there are a lot of intangibles that are very tough to measure in this one with the whole hoke/sd state situation. It has the strange feeling of an easy Michigan cover that sets up Vegas for a ton of nonsensical Michigan spread love when the big 10 schedule comes, but that's just me.
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amd, i'm a michigan fan and even i was looking to take sd state this week but something about this line looks very strange to me. it opened at 8 when i was expecting a 5 or 4.5, and every capper in here is quick to jump at the points (no offense). something looks fishy, michigan shouldn't be such a big favorite in this game but there are a lot of intangibles that are very tough to measure in this one with the whole hoke/sd state situation. It has the strange feeling of an easy Michigan cover that sets up Vegas for a ton of nonsensical Michigan spread love when the big 10 schedule comes, but that's just me.
amd, i'm a michigan fan and even i was looking to take sd state this week but something about this line looks very strange to me. it opened at 8 when i was expecting a 5 or 4.5, and every capper in here is quick to jump at the points (no offense). something looks fishy, michigan shouldn't be such a big favorite in this game but there are a lot of intangibles that are very tough to measure in this one with the whole hoke/sd state situation. It has the strange feeling of an easy Michigan cover that sets up Vegas for a ton of nonsensical Michigan spread love when the big 10 schedule comes, but that's just me.
Thanks for the post.
A couple of things....Figuratively, I'm not one to jump at taking the points as I look at each game individually. Last week I chose to take ND at -5 against a ranked MSU team who has dominated ND in the series. When I capped this game, I calculated the Brady Hoke intangible into the equation just as the oddsmakers have which is why the line is set at 8.5 and not under a TD.. I happen to think this line makes sense so my play is definitely NOT a line play. If you only capped this game at -4.5 or 5, may I ask you what variables you used to come up with your line? SDSU is essentially unchanged from a year ago and the fact that Hoke knows his recruits/current starters tendencies is a HUGE advantage not to mention that SDSU has holes in their defense as they've allowed 65 points in 3 games against much lesser opponents. However, I absolutely love Ronnie Hillman to run wild against an undersized Michigan defensive front. This kid is the real deal and I understand that Hoke is scheming to stop the SDSU running game.....but will it matter? Michigan has been trying to correct their defensive woes for the last 10 years but the bottom line is they simply don't have the athletes on defense to make the appropriate adjustments. Hillman has already rushed for 477 yds, 6.2 yds/att, 160 yds/g, 8 td's. I look for him to continue his trend and set up play action for an efficient Lindley is who a QB rating 143.1, 7 TD's., 1 INT. Lindley has obviously proven that he can throw downfield as he's eclipsed 10,000 yds passing in his career and Michigan has proven they still don't have the secondary to stop him. Now, I agree that SDSU's strength of schedule is undesirable as they've played Cal Poly, Army and Washington State, however, Army just beat Northwestern and Washington State has already shown a remarkable improvement from the last several in this young season. I haven't seen the total posted for this game yet but my feeling is that the oddsmakers won't be able to set the total high enough. The over will also be on my radar, however, I'll wait until the end of the week when I have a better understanding of the weather. The weather forecast at kickoff is 66 degrees, sunny with 10% precipitation and winds from the NW at 6mph.
0
Quote Originally Posted by raems:
amd, i'm a michigan fan and even i was looking to take sd state this week but something about this line looks very strange to me. it opened at 8 when i was expecting a 5 or 4.5, and every capper in here is quick to jump at the points (no offense). something looks fishy, michigan shouldn't be such a big favorite in this game but there are a lot of intangibles that are very tough to measure in this one with the whole hoke/sd state situation. It has the strange feeling of an easy Michigan cover that sets up Vegas for a ton of nonsensical Michigan spread love when the big 10 schedule comes, but that's just me.
Thanks for the post.
A couple of things....Figuratively, I'm not one to jump at taking the points as I look at each game individually. Last week I chose to take ND at -5 against a ranked MSU team who has dominated ND in the series. When I capped this game, I calculated the Brady Hoke intangible into the equation just as the oddsmakers have which is why the line is set at 8.5 and not under a TD.. I happen to think this line makes sense so my play is definitely NOT a line play. If you only capped this game at -4.5 or 5, may I ask you what variables you used to come up with your line? SDSU is essentially unchanged from a year ago and the fact that Hoke knows his recruits/current starters tendencies is a HUGE advantage not to mention that SDSU has holes in their defense as they've allowed 65 points in 3 games against much lesser opponents. However, I absolutely love Ronnie Hillman to run wild against an undersized Michigan defensive front. This kid is the real deal and I understand that Hoke is scheming to stop the SDSU running game.....but will it matter? Michigan has been trying to correct their defensive woes for the last 10 years but the bottom line is they simply don't have the athletes on defense to make the appropriate adjustments. Hillman has already rushed for 477 yds, 6.2 yds/att, 160 yds/g, 8 td's. I look for him to continue his trend and set up play action for an efficient Lindley is who a QB rating 143.1, 7 TD's., 1 INT. Lindley has obviously proven that he can throw downfield as he's eclipsed 10,000 yds passing in his career and Michigan has proven they still don't have the secondary to stop him. Now, I agree that SDSU's strength of schedule is undesirable as they've played Cal Poly, Army and Washington State, however, Army just beat Northwestern and Washington State has already shown a remarkable improvement from the last several in this young season. I haven't seen the total posted for this game yet but my feeling is that the oddsmakers won't be able to set the total high enough. The over will also be on my radar, however, I'll wait until the end of the week when I have a better understanding of the weather. The weather forecast at kickoff is 66 degrees, sunny with 10% precipitation and winds from the NW at 6mph.
amd, i'm a michigan fan and even i was looking to take sd state this week but something about this line looks very strange to me. it opened at 8 when i was expecting a 5 or 4.5, and every capper in here is quick to jump at the points (no offense). something looks fishy, michigan shouldn't be such a big favorite in this game but there are a lot of intangibles that are very tough to measure in this one with the whole hoke/sd state situation. It has the strange feeling of an easy Michigan cover that sets up Vegas for a ton of nonsensical Michigan spread love when the big 10 schedule comes, but that's just me.
Thanks for the post.
A couple of things....Figuratively, I'm not one to jump at taking the points as I look at each game individually. Last week I chose to take ND at -5 against a ranked MSU team who has dominated ND in the series. When I capped this game, I calculated the Brady Hoke intangible into the equation just as the oddsmakers have which is why the line is set at 8.5 and not under a TD.. I happen to think this line makes sense so my play is definitely NOT a line play. If you only capped this game at -4.5 or 5, may I ask you what variables you used to come up with your line? SDSU is essentially unchanged from a year ago and the fact that Hoke knows his recruits/current starters tendencies is a HUGE advantage not to mention that SDSU has holes in their defense as they've allowed 65 points in 3 games against much lesser opponents. However, I absolutely love Ronnie Hillman to run wild against an undersized Michigan defensive front. This kid is the real deal and I understand that Hoke is scheming to stop the SDSU running game.....but will it matter? Michigan has been trying to correct their defensive woes for the last 10 years but the bottom line is they simply don't have the athletes on defense to make the appropriate adjustments. Hillman has already rushed for 477 yds, 6.2 yds/att, 160 yds/g, 8 td's. I look for him to continue his trend and set up play action for an efficient Lindley is who a QB rating 143.1, 7 TD's., 1 INT. Lindley has obviously proven that he can throw downfield as he's eclipsed 10,000 yds passing in his career and Michigan has proven they still don't have the secondary to stop him. Now, I agree that SDSU's strength of schedule is undesirable as they've played Cal Poly, Army and Washington State, however, Army just beat Northwestern and Washington State has already shown a remarkable improvement from the last several in this young season. I haven't seen the total posted for this game yet but my feeling is that the oddsmakers won't be able to set the total high enough. The over will also be on my radar, however, I'll wait until the end of the week when I have a better understanding of the weather. The weather forecast at kickoff is 66 degrees, sunny with 10% precipitation and winds from the NW at 6mph.
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Quote Originally Posted by raems:
amd, i'm a michigan fan and even i was looking to take sd state this week but something about this line looks very strange to me. it opened at 8 when i was expecting a 5 or 4.5, and every capper in here is quick to jump at the points (no offense). something looks fishy, michigan shouldn't be such a big favorite in this game but there are a lot of intangibles that are very tough to measure in this one with the whole hoke/sd state situation. It has the strange feeling of an easy Michigan cover that sets up Vegas for a ton of nonsensical Michigan spread love when the big 10 schedule comes, but that's just me.
Thanks for the post.
A couple of things....Figuratively, I'm not one to jump at taking the points as I look at each game individually. Last week I chose to take ND at -5 against a ranked MSU team who has dominated ND in the series. When I capped this game, I calculated the Brady Hoke intangible into the equation just as the oddsmakers have which is why the line is set at 8.5 and not under a TD.. I happen to think this line makes sense so my play is definitely NOT a line play. If you only capped this game at -4.5 or 5, may I ask you what variables you used to come up with your line? SDSU is essentially unchanged from a year ago and the fact that Hoke knows his recruits/current starters tendencies is a HUGE advantage not to mention that SDSU has holes in their defense as they've allowed 65 points in 3 games against much lesser opponents. However, I absolutely love Ronnie Hillman to run wild against an undersized Michigan defensive front. This kid is the real deal and I understand that Hoke is scheming to stop the SDSU running game.....but will it matter? Michigan has been trying to correct their defensive woes for the last 10 years but the bottom line is they simply don't have the athletes on defense to make the appropriate adjustments. Hillman has already rushed for 477 yds, 6.2 yds/att, 160 yds/g, 8 td's. I look for him to continue his trend and set up play action for an efficient Lindley is who a QB rating 143.1, 7 TD's., 1 INT. Lindley has obviously proven that he can throw downfield as he's eclipsed 10,000 yds passing in his career and Michigan has proven they still don't have the secondary to stop him. Now, I agree that SDSU's strength of schedule is undesirable as they've played Cal Poly, Army and Washington State, however, Army just beat Northwestern and Washington State has already shown a remarkable improvement from the last several in this young season. I haven't seen the total posted for this game yet but my feeling is that the oddsmakers won't be able to set the total high enough. The over will also be on my radar, however, I'll wait until the end of the week when I have a better understanding of the weather. The weather forecast at kickoff is 66 degrees, sunny with 10% precipitation and winds from the NW at 6mph.
A couple of things....Figuratively, I'm not one to jump at taking the points as I look at each game individually. Last week I chose to take ND at -5 against a ranked MSU team who has dominated ND in the series. When I capped this game, I calculated the Brady Hoke intangible into the equation just as the oddsmakers have which is why the line is set at 8.5 and not under a TD.. I happen to think this line makes sense so my play is definitely NOT a line play. If you only capped this game at -4.5 or 5, may I ask you what variables you used to come up with your line? SDSU is essentially unchanged from a year ago and the fact that Hoke knows his recruits/current starters tendencies is a HUGE advantage not to mention that SDSU has holes in their defense as they've allowed 65 points in 3 games against much lesser opponents. However, I absolutely love Ronnie Hillman to run wild against an undersized Michigan defensive front. This kid is the real deal and I understand that Hoke is scheming to stop the SDSU running game.....but will it matter? Michigan has been trying to correct their defensive woes for the last 10 years but the bottom line is they simply don't have the athletes on defense to make the appropriate adjustments. Hillman has already rushed for 477 yds, 6.2 yds/att, 160 yds/g, 8 td's. I look for him to continue his trend and set up play action for an efficient Lindley is who a QB rating 143.1, 7 TD's., 1 INT. Lindley has obviously proven that he can throw downfield as he's eclipsed 10,000 yds passing in his career and Michigan has proven they still don't have the secondary to stop him. Now, I agree that SDSU's strength of schedule is undesirable as they've played Cal Poly, Army and Washington State, however, Army just beat Northwestern and Washington State has already shown a remarkable improvement from the last several in this young season. I haven't seen the total posted for this game yet but my feeling is that the oddsmakers won't be able to set the total high enough. The over will also be on my radar, however, I'll wait until the end of the week when I have a better understanding of the weather. The weather forecast at kickoff is 66 degrees, sunny with 10% precipitation and winds from the NW at 6mph.
I just don't think Michigan is very good yet, nor do they have the players to consistently fit into Hoke's schemes against quality opposition, not yet at least. Hoke's done a good job not completely overhauling Denard's style of play and the team has clearly taken to the new coach as they've shown some intangible qualities that I didn't often see from them under Rodriguez. I'm not even arguing with you that logically the 8.5 makes a lot of sense, I just have a very strange feeling about it. I had it at 4.5/5 because I believe SD State is as good as, if not better than Michigan, and the home field advantage/9 AM PST start combo is worth 4-5 points on the spread in college (about that many, I know it's not entirely provable).
I could obviously be wrong given the public nature of Michigan and the not so public nature of SD State, but I really didn't expect such a high number, nor did I expect it to inflate after opening at 8 either. Good luck with the play, don't get me wrong I'm not betting on Michigan, I just have a feeling they'll take care of business on Saturday.
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Quote Originally Posted by amd:
Thanks for the post.
A couple of things....Figuratively, I'm not one to jump at taking the points as I look at each game individually. Last week I chose to take ND at -5 against a ranked MSU team who has dominated ND in the series. When I capped this game, I calculated the Brady Hoke intangible into the equation just as the oddsmakers have which is why the line is set at 8.5 and not under a TD.. I happen to think this line makes sense so my play is definitely NOT a line play. If you only capped this game at -4.5 or 5, may I ask you what variables you used to come up with your line? SDSU is essentially unchanged from a year ago and the fact that Hoke knows his recruits/current starters tendencies is a HUGE advantage not to mention that SDSU has holes in their defense as they've allowed 65 points in 3 games against much lesser opponents. However, I absolutely love Ronnie Hillman to run wild against an undersized Michigan defensive front. This kid is the real deal and I understand that Hoke is scheming to stop the SDSU running game.....but will it matter? Michigan has been trying to correct their defensive woes for the last 10 years but the bottom line is they simply don't have the athletes on defense to make the appropriate adjustments. Hillman has already rushed for 477 yds, 6.2 yds/att, 160 yds/g, 8 td's. I look for him to continue his trend and set up play action for an efficient Lindley is who a QB rating 143.1, 7 TD's., 1 INT. Lindley has obviously proven that he can throw downfield as he's eclipsed 10,000 yds passing in his career and Michigan has proven they still don't have the secondary to stop him. Now, I agree that SDSU's strength of schedule is undesirable as they've played Cal Poly, Army and Washington State, however, Army just beat Northwestern and Washington State has already shown a remarkable improvement from the last several in this young season. I haven't seen the total posted for this game yet but my feeling is that the oddsmakers won't be able to set the total high enough. The over will also be on my radar, however, I'll wait until the end of the week when I have a better understanding of the weather. The weather forecast at kickoff is 66 degrees, sunny with 10% precipitation and winds from the NW at 6mph.
I just don't think Michigan is very good yet, nor do they have the players to consistently fit into Hoke's schemes against quality opposition, not yet at least. Hoke's done a good job not completely overhauling Denard's style of play and the team has clearly taken to the new coach as they've shown some intangible qualities that I didn't often see from them under Rodriguez. I'm not even arguing with you that logically the 8.5 makes a lot of sense, I just have a very strange feeling about it. I had it at 4.5/5 because I believe SD State is as good as, if not better than Michigan, and the home field advantage/9 AM PST start combo is worth 4-5 points on the spread in college (about that many, I know it's not entirely provable).
I could obviously be wrong given the public nature of Michigan and the not so public nature of SD State, but I really didn't expect such a high number, nor did I expect it to inflate after opening at 8 either. Good luck with the play, don't get me wrong I'm not betting on Michigan, I just have a feeling they'll take care of business on Saturday.
Both SDST and W Mich lines are rising....didnt really expect that from either....may double dip with W Mich if I can get 14.5
Good work this season buddy. I certainly didn't expect the SDSU line to rise....looks like that will be my play of the week. SDSU +10 is fucking ridiculous especially when I think they can get the outright win.
I really like Western Michigan again this week but the public play is heavy on Illinois especially after a strong win last weekend. So, I'm going to wait and grab Western once it hits 14-14.5.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Nice work and thanks for the W Mich winner
Both SDST and W Mich lines are rising....didnt really expect that from either....may double dip with W Mich if I can get 14.5
Good work this season buddy. I certainly didn't expect the SDSU line to rise....looks like that will be my play of the week. SDSU +10 is fucking ridiculous especially when I think they can get the outright win.
I really like Western Michigan again this week but the public play is heavy on Illinois especially after a strong win last weekend. So, I'm going to wait and grab Western once it hits 14-14.5.
WMU healthy? I'm not getting the line movement in that game either. Great spot to catch the Zooks.
Nice write up on SDSU. I just wish the game was at 3:30. Army at West Point, Wazzou in San Diego, Michigan in Ann Arobr, in consecutive weeks. SDSU's athletic director must hate them.
UCLA
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WMU healthy? I'm not getting the line movement in that game either. Great spot to catch the Zooks.
Nice write up on SDSU. I just wish the game was at 3:30. Army at West Point, Wazzou in San Diego, Michigan in Ann Arobr, in consecutive weeks. SDSU's athletic director must hate them.
I just don't think Michigan is very good yet, nor do they have the players to consistently fit into Hoke's schemes against quality opposition, not yet at least. Hoke's done a good job not completely overhauling Denard's style of play and the team has clearly taken to the new coach as they've shown some intangible qualities that I didn't often see from them under Rodriguez. I'm not even arguing with you that logically the 8.5 makes a lot of sense, I just have a very strange feeling about it. I had it at 4.5/5 because I believe SD State is as good as, if not better than Michigan, and the home field advantage/9 AM PST start combo is worth 4-5 points on the spread in college (about that many, I know it's not entirely provable).
I could obviously be wrong given the public nature of Michigan and the not so public nature of SD State, but I really didn't expect such a high number, nor did I expect it to inflate after opening at 8 either. Good luck with the play, don't get me wrong I'm not betting on Michigan, I just have a feeling they'll take care of business on Saturday.
I agree with many of your points. And, it appears that many others agree with you as well since the line is rising. It just happens to be that I'm not a believer of Michigan's defense this week and I'll be nailing SDSU hard on Saturday. Good luck this week and thanks a lot for your insight.
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Quote Originally Posted by raems:
I just don't think Michigan is very good yet, nor do they have the players to consistently fit into Hoke's schemes against quality opposition, not yet at least. Hoke's done a good job not completely overhauling Denard's style of play and the team has clearly taken to the new coach as they've shown some intangible qualities that I didn't often see from them under Rodriguez. I'm not even arguing with you that logically the 8.5 makes a lot of sense, I just have a very strange feeling about it. I had it at 4.5/5 because I believe SD State is as good as, if not better than Michigan, and the home field advantage/9 AM PST start combo is worth 4-5 points on the spread in college (about that many, I know it's not entirely provable).
I could obviously be wrong given the public nature of Michigan and the not so public nature of SD State, but I really didn't expect such a high number, nor did I expect it to inflate after opening at 8 either. Good luck with the play, don't get me wrong I'm not betting on Michigan, I just have a feeling they'll take care of business on Saturday.
I agree with many of your points. And, it appears that many others agree with you as well since the line is rising. It just happens to be that I'm not a believer of Michigan's defense this week and I'll be nailing SDSU hard on Saturday. Good luck this week and thanks a lot for your insight.
WMU healthy? I'm not getting the line movement in that game either. Great spot to catch the Zooks.
Nice write up on SDSU. I just wish the game was at 3:30. Army at West Point, Wazzou in San Diego, Michigan in Ann Arobr, in consecutive weeks. SDSU's athletic director must hate them.
UCLA
Yeah, Maine....I was thinking the same.
As for UCLA, I don't think they're as bad as their 0-2 record or their 1Q performance against Texas. UCLA is very capable of moving the ball and their inept defense will be offset by Oregon State's horrid offense. I can't fucking believe that Oregon State is actually laying points. I realize home field is equivelant to 3 points but Geez, I think UCLA wins this game convincingly so give me the points.
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Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
WMU healthy? I'm not getting the line movement in that game either. Great spot to catch the Zooks.
Nice write up on SDSU. I just wish the game was at 3:30. Army at West Point, Wazzou in San Diego, Michigan in Ann Arobr, in consecutive weeks. SDSU's athletic director must hate them.
UCLA
Yeah, Maine....I was thinking the same.
As for UCLA, I don't think they're as bad as their 0-2 record or their 1Q performance against Texas. UCLA is very capable of moving the ball and their inept defense will be offset by Oregon State's horrid offense. I can't fucking believe that Oregon State is actually laying points. I realize home field is equivelant to 3 points but Geez, I think UCLA wins this game convincingly so give me the points.
Man, that's quite a jump in such a short time but I still believe it's a public move which is why I'm hammering the line currently set at 10. No way in hell does that line remain at 10 at kickoff.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ocean808:
BOL this week, amd
I just got my lines and I have SDST at +10.
Ocean
Man, that's quite a jump in such a short time but I still believe it's a public move which is why I'm hammering the line currently set at 10. No way in hell does that line remain at 10 at kickoff.
Good Luck amd,,did you get in on that Vandy game last week?
I took Vandy in Boom Booms weekly challenge but I didn't have the balls to lay money on them...wish I would've. I still don't know too much about them but 15 points is a lot of points this week for a Vandy team that can apparently move the ball
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Quote Originally Posted by totter:
Good Luck amd,,did you get in on that Vandy game last week?
I took Vandy in Boom Booms weekly challenge but I didn't have the balls to lay money on them...wish I would've. I still don't know too much about them but 15 points is a lot of points this week for a Vandy team that can apparently move the ball
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