Week 2 Picks - Who is on Baylor?

I've seen quite a bit of Baylor +7.5 but haven't seen anyone give a breakdown or explanation as to why. A respected capper even has it as their highest unit play of the week.

I follow the B12 very closely and the Baylor collapse last week wasn't that shocking if you look closely at the trend under Aranda and status of the program. The 2021 season was an anomally with Rhule's players. Otherwise you're looking at a 2-7 and 6-7 program with a weak SOS. Almost every impact player on offense and defense did not return (I belive 1 starting OL and 2 players on D?) and there was a mass portal exodus to end the season. Aranda's recruits have been putrid. They switched things up this year with an unproven DC from a lackluster Oregon D and the misscommunications, lack of talent and poor execution was on full display last week.

Utah on the other hand could be the best team in the Pac-12 this year, the only team with a good enough defense to punch the USC scoring machine in the mouth twice and they just easily handled a Florida team with much much much better talent on paper than Baylor by 13.

Now add that Baylor is playing without their starting QB I think the line should be closer to -13.5, maybe -9.5 given the location. But even then Baylor's home field is not much of an advantage and while the narrative should be they're playing for a bounce back at home following an embarrassment, I don't think they have enough talent or cohesiveness to bounce back against a really good Utah team.

Maybe I'm missing something but as soon as I saw this line I looked at every angle and don't see a secnario Baylor keeps it within 10 points. I only have 3-4 10u plays a year and I'm smashing this one. Please give me your take and discuss.   

YTD 6-1 / +21u

Week 2 Picks:

Utah -7 10u 

Illinois / Kansas o56.5 5u

Texas State +12.5 4u

Tulsa +34.5 2u 

1u plays : Ball St/Georigia o52, Oklahoma - 15.5, Iowa/Iowa St o36

BOL 

Not arguing with anything, but Utah didn't easily beat Florida. Gators could have won that game with a couple mistakes taken back (2 players wearing the same jersey number comes to mind) . The Utah offense had 1 big passing play and otherwise looked mediocre. On the road will be a test, and if Rising plays he will be rusty.....if he doesn't, im not sure the Utes have the qb/wrs to exploit the Bears secondary.....

GL sir

Week 1 and 2 I like to keep it simple. The preview magazine is up on Utah, down on Baylor, and that’s enough for me. Utah -7

@TRAIN69

Thanks for the input. Maybe I am biased as I had 5u on Utah last week as my largest play and I am also now a huge Utah stan after what they did to Lincoln Riley, but I was watching the game mid fantasy draft and the Utes seemed to be in control the entire night against FL from what I was able to watch. The defense looked much better than the offense, but in the B12, specifically this year's Baylor, the offense should look even better IMO. Baylor's secondary is attrocious this year and where they lost the most players IIRC. The real determining factor to go 10u was the news breaking on Shapen. I'm not sure this Bears team can score more than 20 on this Utah D. I hate to even think about taking an under in a Baylor game, but I could see some appeal there as well. I won't be on it though. 

Utah -5.5 BAYLOR

What can you say, other than the Baylor Mike Bears lost to Texas State.  Baylor was probably saying, this is insane!  I didn’t sign up for this!  Then they asked for the 5 dollars back for the cab ride.  I mean the result of that Texas State game was truly preposterous.  But Baylor couldn’t stop them.

On the other hand, Utah hosted the Florida Gators last week and their Pac 12 defense was off the hook, making the Gators look like they were the JV All stars, beating them 24-11.  This wasn’t Florida International, South Florida or Florida Atlantic.  This was the real Florida Gators who ran the ball 21 times for 13 yards last week.  You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road?  You lose.  That’s what Florida did.  It wasn’t because Florida can’t run the ball…..they actually can.  They just couldn’t run it against Utah.  It was the Utes it was the Utes!  Don’t take it from me, take it from Florida QB Graham Mertz, who ended up playing like Ethel Mertz:  “They just always seemed like they had one extra guy,” Mertz said.  I also like Utah’s secret weapon….their punter:  Jack Bouwmeester averaged 51.8 yards on six punts, pinning three inside the 20.

This game also has a big QB mystery.  Utah didn't need Cam Rising last week and it’s uncertain if they will rush him back against Baylor.  Baylor has quarterback injury news of its own after Blake Shapen left the game last week with what has been diagnosed as a sprained MCL.  He is out 2-3 weeks  and Sophomore Sawyer Robertson is now QB1 for Baylor and will get his first start.  Okay…so you have a Baylor team whose defense was shredded last week by an also ran team.  They have JV QB starting and their rushing attack only had 3.4 yards per carry against a soft Texas State defense.  What’s going to happen when they run into Utah’s brick wall defense and the pressure to score will be squarely on the JV QB’s shoulders? 

This one looks like candy from babies.  My stomach is gonna hurt so much from laughing I’m gonna need Rolaids.  It was the Utes it was the Utes…loving the favorites from the Pac 12 on the road.

Love Utah this year . I said it I think they can finish the year as a top 10 program . They play bully ball and with or without Rising they get it done 

@iamhuge

I couldn't have put it better myself. This feels too easy - but what I want to know is where you got -5.5? I locked in -7 the day my books lines opened and it's gone up from there. 

Also Texas St is legitamately a good team this year relative to their conference and I think they are still being highly underestimated. They upgraded massively via portal this offseason and have Finley a real P5 starter at QB. After that UTSA performance I'll take them with +12.5 every day of the week. Considering a 1u on ML.  

@okupicks

 Sunday on Draftkings

Stay away game for me. If it looks too easy, what happens a lot of the time? It ends up not being so easy. Who knows how Baylor will react after that loss? I wasn't overly impressed with Utah. Rising is day to day, as we all know. I mean, Utah does look like the pick, but they are like 3-8 in the last 11 as road favs

BOL on your plays

My exact thoughts 99% of the time, like this Buffs game, I'm not touching it with a 10ft pole. But I feel very very strongly in a Utes cover and I've already put my money where my mouth is, so let's ride. GL 

Lots of info. GL