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gwjtf

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Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 613

Posted: Jul. 16, 2013 - 2:18 AM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

As I said, I believe Gus has this team going in the right direction, but they are a long way from being a factor in the SEC West IMO. Moreover, the notion that Auburn is going to come out and score anywhere near 50 points in their 1st game of the season is delusional . . . to put it mildly. In fact if I can get a 1st half number of 28 or better, I will seriously consider betting the 1st Half UNDER.

I'm amazed by the number of posters who think Auburn will be some prolific offensive team because of the mere presence of Gus Malzahn on the sidelines. I think the only team on their schedule that they have a reasonable chance of running the score up on is Western Carolina.

People seem to forget that Auburn's offense was awful the last year Malzahn was a Auburn. Auburn scored 16 against South Carolina, 14 against Arkansas, 17 against Florida, 10 against LSU, 7 against Georgia and 0 against Alabama. So to think that Malzahn is going to put up prolific scoring numbers against SEC foes with the talent currently on that roster is totally unrealistic.

Auburn will be better. But they still have a long way to go before the are any semblance of their 2010 national championship team.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, Jimmy, and no doubt at a single practice it is entirely possible they didn't do well. But I saw the spring game at conclusion of all spring practices and the light bulb had gone on. The first team offense scored 35 points against the 2nd team defense - IN THE FIRST HALF. The first team defense held the 2nd team offense to 14 points for the game and Gus emptied the bench near the end of the 3rd quarter.

Believe me, Auburns 2's on defense are about as fast and physical and better coached already under Ellis Johnson than the sieve that was WAZZOU's defense last year and, let's face it, the Pirate's not known for his hellacious D.

So no, I don't think there's anything delusional at all about the possiblity of Auburn putting up 42-45 points against Washington St., at home. And I certainly think they defense can clamp down on Wazzou in the red zone and force field goals - assuming Wazzou which had just about the worst rushing offense in CFB last year can find the red zone with any consistency.

As for their QBs, through 3 quarters in the spring game Frazier was 8-13 for 116 yards and one TD; he also ran for a TD. Wallace was 15-21 for 178 yards and two TDs and one INT. Both interchanged and worked against the 1's and 2's defense for 3 quarters. They didn't set the world on fire but combined production for 3 quarters wasn't too bad. Meanwhile both Artis Cameron-Payne (the game's MVP) and Tre Mason were both excellent - great in space and tough, downhill runners. Both gained over 100 yards against good rushing defenses.

Based upon what I saw in the spring game, Auburn is talented - big, fast and strong; they have the ability to score a lot of points in a balanced attack with good running backs and decent QB play that Gus will develop and not ask too much of them too soon. Of course, if the JUCO kid Marshall lives up to billing, the Frazier/Wallace debate could be moot. The Tigers absolutely have the ability to shut down Wazzou and hold them to 2 or 3 TDs while punching in 5, 6 or more at home, game 1. The overall talent discrepancy is large and Gus is a helluva game coach.

Not delusional Jimmy. Just a difference of opinion based upon what we saw.

GW

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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

As I said, I believe Gus has this team going in the right direction, but they are a long way from being a factor in the SEC West IMO. Moreover, the notion that Auburn is going to come out and score anywhere near 50 points in their 1st game of the season is delusional . . . to put it mildly. In fact if I can get a 1st half number of 28 or better, I will seriously consider betting the 1st Half UNDER.

I'm amazed by the number of posters who think Auburn will be some prolific offensive team because of the mere presence of Gus Malzahn on the sidelines. I think the only team on their schedule that they have a reasonable chance of running the score up on is Western Carolina.

People seem to forget that Auburn's offense was awful the last year Malzahn was a Auburn. Auburn scored 16 against South Carolina, 14 against Arkansas, 17 against Florida, 10 against LSU, 7 against Georgia and 0 against Alabama. So to think that Malzahn is going to put up prolific scoring numbers against SEC foes with the talent currently on that roster is totally unrealistic.

Auburn will be better. But they still have a long way to go before the are any semblance of their 2010 national championship team.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, Jimmy, and no doubt at a single practice it is entirely possible they didn't do well. But I saw the spring game at conclusion of all spring practices and the light bulb had gone on. The first team offense scored 35 points against the 2nd team defense - IN THE FIRST HALF. The first team defense held the 2nd team offense to 14 points for the game and Gus emptied the bench near the end of the 3rd quarter.

Believe me, Auburns 2's on defense are about as fast and physical and better coached already under Ellis Johnson than the sieve that was WAZZOU's defense last year and, let's face it, the Pirate's not known for his hellacious D.

So no, I don't think there's anything delusional at all about the possiblity of Auburn putting up 42-45 points against Washington St., at home. And I certainly think they defense can clamp down on Wazzou in the red zone and force field goals - assuming Wazzou which had just about the worst rushing offense in CFB last year can find the red zone with any consistency.

As for their QBs, through 3 quarters in the spring game Frazier was 8-13 for 116 yards and one TD; he also ran for a TD. Wallace was 15-21 for 178 yards and two TDs and one INT. Both interchanged and worked against the 1's and 2's defense for 3 quarters. They didn't set the world on fire but combined production for 3 quarters wasn't too bad. Meanwhile both Artis Cameron-Payne (the game's MVP) and Tre Mason were both excellent - great in space and tough, downhill runners. Both gained over 100 yards against good rushing defenses.

Based upon what I saw in the spring game, Auburn is talented - big, fast and strong; they have the ability to score a lot of points in a balanced attack with good running backs and decent QB play that Gus will develop and not ask too much of them too soon. Of course, if the JUCO kid Marshall lives up to billing, the Frazier/Wallace debate could be moot. The Tigers absolutely have the ability to shut down Wazzou and hold them to 2 or 3 TDs while punching in 5, 6 or more at home, game 1. The overall talent discrepancy is large and Gus is a helluva game coach.

Not delusional Jimmy. Just a difference of opinion based upon what we saw.

GW

jimmydafreak

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Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jul. 16, 2013 - 4:12 AM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Based upon what I saw in the spring game

That says it all . . . "based upon what [you] saw in the spring game." You do realize that spring games are not realistic game situations at all don't you?

Let me ask you a question. Where do you think the coaching staff is more likely to reveal the most? In a closed practice, or a televised spring game? If you think it's a spring game, then you really are delusional.

For example, I attended all of Alabama's scrimmages except the spring game. You know why I didn't bother to attend the spring game? Two reasons really. One I can watch it on tv. Secondly teams reveal nothing in spring games.

The closed scrimmages were run under realistic conditions, and the offense completely dominated the defense in every one of them. I don't remember all the stats, but I think in the last one AJ threw for something like 450 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions. All the scrimmages were similar . . . except the spring game where the offense was only allowed to run 6 plays. In other words, the spring game was heavily weighted toward the defense, which is exactly why it was a very defensive game. Of course the spring game bore no resemblance to reality whatsoever.

I don't know this for a fact, although pretty much all coaches do it, I'm quite sure the Auburn scrimmage was heavily weighted toward the offense to allow them to gain some rhythm and confidence. If you are betting football games based off of spring games, you're going to bust out within the first few weeks of the season.

SEC defensive coordinators are quite familiar with Gus Malzahn's offense, and if you think he's going to move the ball up and down the field at will against SEC defenses with 2 guys who are not SEC caliber QBs, you are simply not being realistic at all. Granted Wazzu's defense is no where near SEC caliber so I think they have a 50-60 percent chance of scoring in the low 30s. I put their chances of getting into the 40s at less than 15%. It would take a lot of self-destructing on Wazzu's part to get there IMO. Auburn better score against the weak out-of-conference teams, because I don't think they'll score 30 in any of their conference games unless the Marshall kid comes in and lights it up, which is highly unlikely

I'll agree with you that Auburn's defense stiffens in the red zone and forces Wazzu to kick multiple field goals. I predict that Auburn will make their backers very happy by narrowly covering the spread with a 31-16 win.

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Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Based upon what I saw in the spring game

That says it all . . . "based upon what [you] saw in the spring game." You do realize that spring games are not realistic game situations at all don't you?

Let me ask you a question. Where do you think the coaching staff is more likely to reveal the most? In a closed practice, or a televised spring game? If you think it's a spring game, then you really are delusional.

For example, I attended all of Alabama's scrimmages except the spring game. You know why I didn't bother to attend the spring game? Two reasons really. One I can watch it on tv. Secondly teams reveal nothing in spring games.

The closed scrimmages were run under realistic conditions, and the offense completely dominated the defense in every one of them. I don't remember all the stats, but I think in the last one AJ threw for something like 450 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions. All the scrimmages were similar . . . except the spring game where the offense was only allowed to run 6 plays. In other words, the spring game was heavily weighted toward the defense, which is exactly why it was a very defensive game. Of course the spring game bore no resemblance to reality whatsoever.

I don't know this for a fact, although pretty much all coaches do it, I'm quite sure the Auburn scrimmage was heavily weighted toward the offense to allow them to gain some rhythm and confidence. If you are betting football games based off of spring games, you're going to bust out within the first few weeks of the season.

SEC defensive coordinators are quite familiar with Gus Malzahn's offense, and if you think he's going to move the ball up and down the field at will against SEC defenses with 2 guys who are not SEC caliber QBs, you are simply not being realistic at all. Granted Wazzu's defense is no where near SEC caliber so I think they have a 50-60 percent chance of scoring in the low 30s. I put their chances of getting into the 40s at less than 15%. It would take a lot of self-destructing on Wazzu's part to get there IMO. Auburn better score against the weak out-of-conference teams, because I don't think they'll score 30 in any of their conference games unless the Marshall kid comes in and lights it up, which is highly unlikely

I'll agree with you that Auburn's defense stiffens in the red zone and forces Wazzu to kick multiple field goals. I predict that Auburn will make their backers very happy by narrowly covering the spread with a 31-16 win.

gwjtf

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Posts: 613

Posted: Jul. 16, 2013 - 9:39 AM ET #53

Jimmy, I've been to plenty of spring games and plenty of CFB division I practices - at Arkansas, at UCLA, at USC, at Texas, at Oklahoma State, at U of Miami. Don't lecture me about the difference between practices and spring games. For example, I went to multiple practices in 2004 at USC, the year they won the title with probably their best team of the Carroll era, where they looked anything but championship material and Leinert particularly absolutely stunk it up.In the Spring game, however, they looked ready like the champions they eventually became. You went to what sounds like one Auburn practice and believe that provides you with all this perspective on this team based on that one practice? That's almost laughable.

I tell you what I did see at the spring game. Very realistic conditions. Offenses running the play action Malzahn offense at very quick tempo just like they will in game 1, running 80-90 plays a game under game conditions. This was a point of emphasis by Malzahn, to run it very fast and just like game conditions. Same formations; same reads; same Wildcat :), same tempo; 83,000 fans. I am very familiar with Malzahn's offense and they showed 80%-90% of it. Likewise the D was running the same 4-2-5 Ellis Johnson ran at South Carolina; and the same one they'll run on Aug. 31. Sure there'll be some new wrinkles/coverages not shown in spring, but its the same defense, there won't be anything dramatically different in game 1 other than probably more intensity.

About the only thing different than game conditions was the fact that if the qb was touched, the play was dead - i.e., no hitting the QBs. This of course has the opposite effect of your point about being heavily weighted in favor of the offense; it is, in fact, a great advantage for the defense as there were many offensive plays blown dead where the QB likely would made a play had he not been 'touched.'

Also, I do disagree from your previous post with the idea that Auburn's offense was 'awful' in 2011. They were good enough to go 8-5 and score 42 points winning a bowl game. They were good enough to average 182 yds/game passing and 155/yds game rushing playing in the toughest division in CFB. The scores you picked above are misleading because a) they're not accurate (Auburn scored 14 against Bama, not 0. Bama's defense was the nation's leader in every major statistical category and one of the greatest defenses in CFB history); b) the losses to LSU, Ark, and Georgia all had two things in common - all were highly ranked teams (at 2, 5, and 15 respectively) and all were on the road; and c) the Florida and South Carolina games, while not especially prolific, were nonetheless against ranked teams and good enough to get wins which is what counts after all.

I don't recall anyone in this thread mentioning anything about Auburn challenging for the West this year except your reference in your post. The point was they absolutely can take down Washington St and cover the number in game 1 - a point to which you finally ascede. We have the entire season to evaluate Auburn, not one practice, nor one spring game. I think you will be very surprised at how good this team is going to be this year - not challenging for the SEC West - yet - but a huge, noticeable improvement. The same cannot be said for WSU in 2013 IMO. Good luck.

GW

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Jimmy, I've been to plenty of spring games and plenty of CFB division I practices - at Arkansas, at UCLA, at USC, at Texas, at Oklahoma State, at U of Miami. Don't lecture me about the difference between practices and spring games. For example, I went to multiple practices in 2004 at USC, the year they won the title with probably their best team of the Carroll era, where they looked anything but championship material and Leinert particularly absolutely stunk it up.In the Spring game, however, they looked ready like the champions they eventually became. You went to what sounds like one Auburn practice and believe that provides you with all this perspective on this team based on that one practice? That's almost laughable.

I tell you what I did see at the spring game. Very realistic conditions. Offenses running the play action Malzahn offense at very quick tempo just like they will in game 1, running 80-90 plays a game under game conditions. This was a point of emphasis by Malzahn, to run it very fast and just like game conditions. Same formations; same reads; same Wildcat :), same tempo; 83,000 fans. I am very familiar with Malzahn's offense and they showed 80%-90% of it. Likewise the D was running the same 4-2-5 Ellis Johnson ran at South Carolina; and the same one they'll run on Aug. 31. Sure there'll be some new wrinkles/coverages not shown in spring, but its the same defense, there won't be anything dramatically different in game 1 other than probably more intensity.

About the only thing different than game conditions was the fact that if the qb was touched, the play was dead - i.e., no hitting the QBs. This of course has the opposite effect of your point about being heavily weighted in favor of the offense; it is, in fact, a great advantage for the defense as there were many offensive plays blown dead where the QB likely would made a play had he not been 'touched.'

Also, I do disagree from your previous post with the idea that Auburn's offense was 'awful' in 2011. They were good enough to go 8-5 and score 42 points winning a bowl game. They were good enough to average 182 yds/game passing and 155/yds game rushing playing in the toughest division in CFB. The scores you picked above are misleading because a) they're not accurate (Auburn scored 14 against Bama, not 0. Bama's defense was the nation's leader in every major statistical category and one of the greatest defenses in CFB history); b) the losses to LSU, Ark, and Georgia all had two things in common - all were highly ranked teams (at 2, 5, and 15 respectively) and all were on the road; and c) the Florida and South Carolina games, while not especially prolific, were nonetheless against ranked teams and good enough to get wins which is what counts after all.

I don't recall anyone in this thread mentioning anything about Auburn challenging for the West this year except your reference in your post. The point was they absolutely can take down Washington St and cover the number in game 1 - a point to which you finally ascede. We have the entire season to evaluate Auburn, not one practice, nor one spring game. I think you will be very surprised at how good this team is going to be this year - not challenging for the SEC West - yet - but a huge, noticeable improvement. The same cannot be said for WSU in 2013 IMO. Good luck.

GW

jimmydafreak

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Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jul. 16, 2013 - 1:48 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

You're entitled to your opinion of course, Jimmy, and no doubt at a single practice it is entirely possible they didn't do well. But I saw the spring game at conclusion of all spring practices and the light bulb had gone on. The first team offense scored 35 points against the 2nd team defense - IN THE FIRST HALF. The first team defense held the 2nd team offense to 14 points for the game and Gus emptied the bench near the end of the 3rd quarter.

Believe me, Auburns 2's on defense are about as fast and physical and better coached already under Ellis Johnson than the sieve that was WAZZOU's defense last year and, let's face it, the Pirate's not known for his hellacious D.

So no, I don't think there's anything delusional at all about the possiblity of Auburn putting up 42-45 points against Washington St., at home. And I certainly think they defense can clamp down on Wazzou in the red zone and force field goals - assuming Wazzou which had just about the worst rushing offense in CFB last year can find the red zone with any consistency.

As for their QBs, through 3 quarters in the spring game Frazier was 8-13 for 116 yards and one TD; he also ran for a TD. Wallace was 15-21 for 178 yards and two TDs and one INT. Both interchanged and worked against the 1's and 2's defense for 3 quarters. They didn't set the world on fire but combined production for 3 quarters wasn't too bad. Meanwhile both Artis Cameron-Payne (the game's MVP) and Tre Mason were both excellent - great in space and tough, downhill runners. Both gained over 100 yards against good rushing defenses.

Based upon what I saw in the spring game, Auburn is talented - big, fast and strong; they have the ability to score a lot of points in a balanced attack with good running backs and decent QB play that Gus will develop and not ask too much of them too soon. Of course, if the JUCO kid Marshall lives up to billing, the Frazier/Wallace debate could be moot. The Tigers absolutely have the ability to shut down Wazzou and hold them to 2 or 3 TDs while punching in 5, 6 or more at home, game 1. The overall talent discrepancy is large and Gus is a helluva game coach.

Not delusional Jimmy. Just a difference of opinion based upon what we saw.

GW

Apparently you didn't read this from my previous post.

In summation, this was only one practice, but my take is that Auburn is on a promising trajectory with the coaching staff they have in place

Attending one practice certainly doesn't qualify me as an expert, but I do think I have a better feel for this team than just about anyone posting on Covers . . . just as I did last season.

Last season I told everyone that, among many other things, Gene Chizik was a puppet head coach who had completely lost control of the team, that the team was largely divided among racial lines, and that the team was on the verge of imploding. I recommended that everyone fade Auburn every chance they could.

Meanwhile we had other posters were calling me crazy and placing future bets on Auburn to win the SEC West.

Now either I made an extremely guess, or I actually knew what I was talking about. I'll leave it to you to figure out which.

Right now, until proven otherwise, Auburn does not have a SEC caliber QB, no or almost no SEC quality receivers, and marginal running backs. Even Malzahn himself has acknowledged this will be a rebuilding season. And in light of all those facts, you still seem to think that Auburn is going to magically light the world on fire with their offense. They aren't. Auburn's strength is in their offensive and defensive lines, and that's a great place to start, but that's not going to be enough to score 40 points on everyone.

Wazzu is a perfect 1st game for Auburn because they should be able to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball, yet Wazzu is strong enough to make Auburn work for a win. Playing Wazzu should help them establish some much needed continuity and confidence, particularly on offense. That said, they still aren't scoring 40 points, even on Wazzu.

14 is a very sharp line for this game IMO. If Auburn does cover, I tend to think they probably will, they'll do it by the slimmest of margins. A final score of something like 31-16 is a reasonable expectation for this game.

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Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

You're entitled to your opinion of course, Jimmy, and no doubt at a single practice it is entirely possible they didn't do well. But I saw the spring game at conclusion of all spring practices and the light bulb had gone on. The first team offense scored 35 points against the 2nd team defense - IN THE FIRST HALF. The first team defense held the 2nd team offense to 14 points for the game and Gus emptied the bench near the end of the 3rd quarter.

Believe me, Auburns 2's on defense are about as fast and physical and better coached already under Ellis Johnson than the sieve that was WAZZOU's defense last year and, let's face it, the Pirate's not known for his hellacious D.

So no, I don't think there's anything delusional at all about the possiblity of Auburn putting up 42-45 points against Washington St., at home. And I certainly think they defense can clamp down on Wazzou in the red zone and force field goals - assuming Wazzou which had just about the worst rushing offense in CFB last year can find the red zone with any consistency.

As for their QBs, through 3 quarters in the spring game Frazier was 8-13 for 116 yards and one TD; he also ran for a TD. Wallace was 15-21 for 178 yards and two TDs and one INT. Both interchanged and worked against the 1's and 2's defense for 3 quarters. They didn't set the world on fire but combined production for 3 quarters wasn't too bad. Meanwhile both Artis Cameron-Payne (the game's MVP) and Tre Mason were both excellent - great in space and tough, downhill runners. Both gained over 100 yards against good rushing defenses.

Based upon what I saw in the spring game, Auburn is talented - big, fast and strong; they have the ability to score a lot of points in a balanced attack with good running backs and decent QB play that Gus will develop and not ask too much of them too soon. Of course, if the JUCO kid Marshall lives up to billing, the Frazier/Wallace debate could be moot. The Tigers absolutely have the ability to shut down Wazzou and hold them to 2 or 3 TDs while punching in 5, 6 or more at home, game 1. The overall talent discrepancy is large and Gus is a helluva game coach.

Not delusional Jimmy. Just a difference of opinion based upon what we saw.

GW

Apparently you didn't read this from my previous post.

In summation, this was only one practice, but my take is that Auburn is on a promising trajectory with the coaching staff they have in place

Attending one practice certainly doesn't qualify me as an expert, but I do think I have a better feel for this team than just about anyone posting on Covers . . . just as I did last season.

Last season I told everyone that, among many other things, Gene Chizik was a puppet head coach who had completely lost control of the team, that the team was largely divided among racial lines, and that the team was on the verge of imploding. I recommended that everyone fade Auburn every chance they could.

Meanwhile we had other posters were calling me crazy and placing future bets on Auburn to win the SEC West.

Now either I made an extremely guess, or I actually knew what I was talking about. I'll leave it to you to figure out which.

Right now, until proven otherwise, Auburn does not have a SEC caliber QB, no or almost no SEC quality receivers, and marginal running backs. Even Malzahn himself has acknowledged this will be a rebuilding season. And in light of all those facts, you still seem to think that Auburn is going to magically light the world on fire with their offense. They aren't. Auburn's strength is in their offensive and defensive lines, and that's a great place to start, but that's not going to be enough to score 40 points on everyone.

Wazzu is a perfect 1st game for Auburn because they should be able to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball, yet Wazzu is strong enough to make Auburn work for a win. Playing Wazzu should help them establish some much needed continuity and confidence, particularly on offense. That said, they still aren't scoring 40 points, even on Wazzu.

14 is a very sharp line for this game IMO. If Auburn does cover, I tend to think they probably will, they'll do it by the slimmest of margins. A final score of something like 31-16 is a reasonable expectation for this game.

gwjtf

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Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 613

Posted: Jul. 16, 2013 - 3:34 PM ET #55

Fair enough, Jimmy.

I don't wish to debate the point any further. It's good to know *you* feel you're better to evaluate Auburn better than most anyone on covers. It's equally good to know you thought Gene Chizik was a puppet - I completely agree - which is why Gus left after the puppet tried to overly exert himself in the offense in 2011. It's also good to know you think Auburn isn't SEC caliber @ QB and is marginal at skill positions (RBs and WRs) until proven otherwise. Such a plethora of opinion, and not exactly groundbreaking fortitude on your part, but I'll give it to you. However, I disagree with all of those assumptions and, my point is they will (prove otherwise). Starting with Washington State, and continuing throughout the 2013 season. I'm putting my money where my mouth is and, if I'm wrong, please call me out. I will admit my mistake.

Again, BOL in 2013 and to all on covers.

GW

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bookieassassin

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Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10295

Posted: Jul. 16, 2013 - 3:51 PM ET #56

Okie St v Miss St
*gotta be Okie St or nothing.....Gundy is a covering machine......42-18 ATS as a fav.....18-11 vs non-conf...
before LY he covered 15 of 19 as a road fav....AND...Mullen 8-15 ATS as a dog....10-14 away

OSU's matches up well vs MSU here also....

MSU has struggled vs spread / hurry up styles.....LY giving up 41 pts / 572 yds /87 plays to Troy.....38 pts / 693 yds / 38 pts / 90 plays to Aggs...41 pts / 527 yds to Ole Miss..
*in 2011 seems like La Tech took em to OT (with a 17 yr old QB).......now they lose the best DB in school history in Banks(?).....and a great player in Slay...

OSU D has gotten better ...and not bad vs the run (LY 3.8/rush....5.3/play)....most of def front is back...if MSU can't run they might be in trouble here.....as their D might wear down......

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Wazzu @ Auburn......

Malzahn getting maybe (a little) too much respect here...

line maybe should be 10'-12 or so....
*SO....Auburn D will run all over (terrible) Wazzu D?....

watch out....as the Wazzu O was their problem LY....not the D.....they return 9 starters and 13/15 tacklers from a D that shut down Tree on the road (256 TO / 3.2/rush).....held UCLA to only 334 TO (1.9/rush)....allowed Wash only 269 TO and 2.3/rush...and had 35 sacks
*BUT...the offense had (one of) the nation's worst rushing attacks.....and if they can't run their D might wear down....plus Auburn pass D should be a strength

UNDER.....especially 1H .....could be a great play....
*Leach / Malzahn reputation should give us a high total

maybe (unlike usually) bet this under early.....as it will likely fall .........

good man gwjtf......

but what the Freak is trying to tell ya'.....is that you can't really draw any CONCLUSIONS from a spring game

WHY?....because they are basically 'staged' exhibitions
*in many/most cases.....especially for teams off a bad year

I was not in this particular coaches meeting....but they had 2 objectives when planning this game
*for nobody to get hurt
*for every person ....as they leave the stadium...to be super fired up about the 2013 season....and especially the Malzahn high flying O....

The absolute worst thing that could happen....
would be for the offense to look like crap...

NO.....the defensive coaches didn't tell the kids to not give their all.....but the defensive play-calling could / and probably was.....geared to offensive success
*this will of course never be admitted publicly

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

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jimmydafreak

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Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jul. 17, 2013 - 12:18 AM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Fair enough, Jimmy.

I don't wish to debate the point any further. It's good to know *you* feel you're better to evaluate Auburn better than most anyone on covers. It's equally good to know you thought Gene Chizik was a puppet - I completely agree - which is why Gus left after the puppet tried to overly exert himself in the offense in 2011. It's also good to know you think Auburn isn't SEC caliber @ QB and is marginal at skill positions (RBs and WRs) until proven otherwise. Such a plethora of opinion, and not exactly groundbreaking fortitude on your part, but I'll give it to you. However, I disagree with all of those assumptions and, my point is they will (prove otherwise). Starting with Washington State, and continuing throughout the 2013 season. I'm putting my money where my mouth is and, if I'm wrong, please call me out. I will admit my mistake.

Again, BOL in 2013 and to all on covers.

GW

I'm not here to call anyone out. The only thing I'm concerned about is my bankroll. I post my opinions on various topics and teams in hopes of helping others get on the right side of games. Sometimes I do great, other times not so much.

I'm not saying, nor did I say, I knew more about Auburn than anyone else on this board. I do, however, know more than just about everyone on this board. We have some pretty sharp Auburn posters on Covers that may know more than I do.

That said, I occasionally get special access because I have a good friend who has worked in the athletic department for about 10 years now (through three different coaching regimes). I could probably get a lot more access if I were so inclined, but I'm usually not that interested in making the 3-hour trek to Auburn.

The reason I was all over the message boards a year ago warning of Auburn's imminent collapse is because of the people (mainly one person really) I know in the program. Hopefully the information I put out there helped people on this board win money, and I think it did.

I have been very complimentary of the new Auburn coaching staff, and that began when Malzahn fired everyone, particularly Trooper Taylor who was the biggest liability in the program. I respected that move because it was the right thing to do, even though Malzahn knew it would cost him some blue-chip recruits.

I have continued to compliment the coaching staff. (See Post #48). From what I saw the coaching staff was doing what needed to be done to rebuild this program, and bring it back to prominence. I realize Auburn fans are excited about this new regime, as they should be. But Auburn fans need to understand that this is a rebuilding project, and it will take time for Auburn to become a force in the SEC West again. It's certainly not going to happen this season, and even Gus knows that.

Auburn has recruited some highly touted guys the last couple of years, but these guys have yet to be developed. When I say Auburn doesn't have SEC caliber players at the skill positions I mean that they either don't have them on the roster at this time, or none (or almost none) have been developed at this time. If last season proved nothing else, it proved Auburn did not have a SEC caliber QB on the roster. What has changed???

That's not to say some who are on the roster now will not emerge sometime in the future. But again, that supports my assertion that Auburn is a rebuilding project.

Nothing I have said should be construed as some sort of personal attack against Auburn. It is simply my opinion based on everything I know and everything I've seen in the program - and I know and see a lot.

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Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Fair enough, Jimmy.

I don't wish to debate the point any further. It's good to know *you* feel you're better to evaluate Auburn better than most anyone on covers. It's equally good to know you thought Gene Chizik was a puppet - I completely agree - which is why Gus left after the puppet tried to overly exert himself in the offense in 2011. It's also good to know you think Auburn isn't SEC caliber @ QB and is marginal at skill positions (RBs and WRs) until proven otherwise. Such a plethora of opinion, and not exactly groundbreaking fortitude on your part, but I'll give it to you. However, I disagree with all of those assumptions and, my point is they will (prove otherwise). Starting with Washington State, and continuing throughout the 2013 season. I'm putting my money where my mouth is and, if I'm wrong, please call me out. I will admit my mistake.

Again, BOL in 2013 and to all on covers.

GW

I'm not here to call anyone out. The only thing I'm concerned about is my bankroll. I post my opinions on various topics and teams in hopes of helping others get on the right side of games. Sometimes I do great, other times not so much.

I'm not saying, nor did I say, I knew more about Auburn than anyone else on this board. I do, however, know more than just about everyone on this board. We have some pretty sharp Auburn posters on Covers that may know more than I do.

That said, I occasionally get special access because I have a good friend who has worked in the athletic department for about 10 years now (through three different coaching regimes). I could probably get a lot more access if I were so inclined, but I'm usually not that interested in making the 3-hour trek to Auburn.

The reason I was all over the message boards a year ago warning of Auburn's imminent collapse is because of the people (mainly one person really) I know in the program. Hopefully the information I put out there helped people on this board win money, and I think it did.

I have been very complimentary of the new Auburn coaching staff, and that began when Malzahn fired everyone, particularly Trooper Taylor who was the biggest liability in the program. I respected that move because it was the right thing to do, even though Malzahn knew it would cost him some blue-chip recruits.

I have continued to compliment the coaching staff. (See Post #48). From what I saw the coaching staff was doing what needed to be done to rebuild this program, and bring it back to prominence. I realize Auburn fans are excited about this new regime, as they should be. But Auburn fans need to understand that this is a rebuilding project, and it will take time for Auburn to become a force in the SEC West again. It's certainly not going to happen this season, and even Gus knows that.

Auburn has recruited some highly touted guys the last couple of years, but these guys have yet to be developed. When I say Auburn doesn't have SEC caliber players at the skill positions I mean that they either don't have them on the roster at this time, or none (or almost none) have been developed at this time. If last season proved nothing else, it proved Auburn did not have a SEC caliber QB on the roster. What has changed???

That's not to say some who are on the roster now will not emerge sometime in the future. But again, that supports my assertion that Auburn is a rebuilding project.

Nothing I have said should be construed as some sort of personal attack against Auburn. It is simply my opinion based on everything I know and everything I've seen in the program - and I know and see a lot.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jul. 17, 2013 - 1:00 AM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

I was not in this particular coaches meeting....but they had 2 objectives when planning this game
*for nobody to get hurt
*for every person ....as they leave the stadium...to be super fired up about the 2013 season....and especially the Malzahn high flying O....

The absolute worst thing that could happen....
would be for the offense to look like crap...

NO.....the defensive coaches didn't tell the kids to not give their all.....but the defensive play-calling could / and probably was.....geared to offensive success
*this will of course never be admitted publicly

This is precisely the point I was making, I just failed to do so as eloquently as BA did.

I know 100% this is what happen in Alabama's spring game, except their spring game was heavily geared to defensive success. The last thing in the world Saban wanted to do is a) show anything offensively, and b) give people the impression that he is sitting on a very explosive offensive team (which he is). He was more than happy to perpetuate his cloud of dust left, cloud of dust right reputation.

I have absolutely no doubt the reciprocal occurred in the Auburn spring practice. What better way to reignite a disillusioned fan base than to give them what they came to see???

I also agree with your assessment on the total. Most people on Covers know that I'm a 1st half UNDER bettor. I said earlier in this thread that I had no interest in betting the Wazzu/Auburn game unless odds makers released a ridiculously high total for this game just as they did last season for the Clemson/Auburn game.

The Clemson/Auburn number started out at something like 64. My eyes almost bugged out of my head when I saw. It quickly fell back down to earth to around 56, but even then I thought the number was way too high. I bet the 1st half UNDER at 28 or 28.5 as I recall. In a similar vein, if I can pick this one up at the same number or better, I may very well jump on it.

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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

I was not in this particular coaches meeting....but they had 2 objectives when planning this game
*for nobody to get hurt
*for every person ....as they leave the stadium...to be super fired up about the 2013 season....and especially the Malzahn high flying O....

The absolute worst thing that could happen....
would be for the offense to look like crap...

NO.....the defensive coaches didn't tell the kids to not give their all.....but the defensive play-calling could / and probably was.....geared to offensive success
*this will of course never be admitted publicly

This is precisely the point I was making, I just failed to do so as eloquently as BA did.

I know 100% this is what happen in Alabama's spring game, except their spring game was heavily geared to defensive success. The last thing in the world Saban wanted to do is a) show anything offensively, and b) give people the impression that he is sitting on a very explosive offensive team (which he is). He was more than happy to perpetuate his cloud of dust left, cloud of dust right reputation.

I have absolutely no doubt the reciprocal occurred in the Auburn spring practice. What better way to reignite a disillusioned fan base than to give them what they came to see???

I also agree with your assessment on the total. Most people on Covers know that I'm a 1st half UNDER bettor. I said earlier in this thread that I had no interest in betting the Wazzu/Auburn game unless odds makers released a ridiculously high total for this game just as they did last season for the Clemson/Auburn game.

The Clemson/Auburn number started out at something like 64. My eyes almost bugged out of my head when I saw. It quickly fell back down to earth to around 56, but even then I thought the number was way too high. I bet the 1st half UNDER at 28 or 28.5 as I recall. In a similar vein, if I can pick this one up at the same number or better, I may very well jump on it.

jayharp10

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 49

Posted: Jul. 19, 2013 - 6:35 AM ET #59

DAMN and I thought I was good at cappin games. I don't post on here hardly ever. But I started reading the threads last year or maybe the year before...whatever.

All I know is this JimmyDaFreak, BookieAssassin, and JDnMoney yall do one hell of a job. Great fuuckin info. This game for me is also not a play. But great info.

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LonghornHoosier

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 12232

Posted: Jul. 19, 2013 - 6:54 AM ET #60

jayharp - which game is not a play ok st v miss st or auburn v wash st?

LonghornHoosier

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gwjtf

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 613

Posted: Jul. 19, 2013 - 1:56 PM ET #61

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

....I was not in this particular coaches meeting....but they had 2 objectives when planning this game
*for nobody to get hurt
*for every person ....as they leave the stadium...to be super fired up about the 2013 season....and especially the Malzahn high flying O....

The absolute worst thing that could happen....
would be for the offense to look like crap...

NO.....the defensive coaches didn't tell the kids to not give their all.....but the defensive play-calling could / and probably was.....geared to offensive success
*this will of course never be admitted publicly

Well, of course none of us were at any team meetings so all is speculation in that regard, but I actually watched the game and I will tell you to a man no one, offense or defense, was letting up or holding back anything in the first half. DB Jonathon Mincy was ejected from the game for personal foul after blowing up Dimitri Reese on a swing pass to the flat. Bogus call imo as he did not hit the player in the head, but I repeat, he was EJECTED in a SPRING GAME for personal foul, if this gives you an idea of the intensity of play. Both QBs, with the exception of one bad pass decision and one fumbled exchange on a handoff, ran the offense capably, moved the chains, and punched in TDs. 35 points in a half by the first team O. The other thing that stood out was the PACE – I guarantee it was what they will do August 31 and the only thing Wazzou has seen to compare to it is Oregon. Light years difference from last year’s plodding team.

The defense was big, fast, athletic and will only be better by August 31 when three stud 5 star DLmen join and are expected as publicly admitted by the coaching staff to join the rotation from game 1 for depth. Nothwithstanding what other teams may have done, I don't buy this one was playing vanilla coverages to assist/enable an offensive show , particularly in the first half – that’s not what I saw and I’ve seen a lot of CFB.

Re the 1st half totals number, I will watch for it in case 4 TDs or more, that would be enticing. But I love the situation for Auburn more; where a new, competent head coach with better players has the opportunity to get his new regime off to a good start against a lesser opponent. It’s one of the reasons why I unloaded on UCLA last year against Rice, though not the only one. Many of the same factors are in play here & this game is at home. In addition, all accounts out of Auburn indicate the players are being worked exceptionally hard in the off-season and the team, to my eyes, certainly looked faster and significantly more physical in spring game – on both sides of the ball – than last year. They were also already more cohesive offensively than the discombobulated mess that was last season’s offense. BTW I am not an Auburn homie - I did not place a single wager on them last year (but made lot of money on them in 2010)

Wazzou will hang around for a half, but will wear down by the 4^th quarter and succumb to greater speed/strength/athleticism and depth of players. 45-23. A top Week 1 play for me, barring significant injuries/off-field situations occuring in August.

GW

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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

....I was not in this particular coaches meeting....but they had 2 objectives when planning this game
*for nobody to get hurt
*for every person ....as they leave the stadium...to be super fired up about the 2013 season....and especially the Malzahn high flying O....

The absolute worst thing that could happen....
would be for the offense to look like crap...

NO.....the defensive coaches didn't tell the kids to not give their all.....but the defensive play-calling could / and probably was.....geared to offensive success
*this will of course never be admitted publicly

Well, of course none of us were at any team meetings so all is speculation in that regard, but I actually watched the game and I will tell you to a man no one, offense or defense, was letting up or holding back anything in the first half. DB Jonathon Mincy was ejected from the game for personal foul after blowing up Dimitri Reese on a swing pass to the flat. Bogus call imo as he did not hit the player in the head, but I repeat, he was EJECTED in a SPRING GAME for personal foul, if this gives you an idea of the intensity of play. Both QBs, with the exception of one bad pass decision and one fumbled exchange on a handoff, ran the offense capably, moved the chains, and punched in TDs. 35 points in a half by the first team O. The other thing that stood out was the PACE – I guarantee it was what they will do August 31 and the only thing Wazzou has seen to compare to it is Oregon. Light years difference from last year’s plodding team.

The defense was big, fast, athletic and will only be better by August 31 when three stud 5 star DLmen join and are expected as publicly admitted by the coaching staff to join the rotation from game 1 for depth. Nothwithstanding what other teams may have done, I don't buy this one was playing vanilla coverages to assist/enable an offensive show , particularly in the first half – that’s not what I saw and I’ve seen a lot of CFB.

Re the 1st half totals number, I will watch for it in case 4 TDs or more, that would be enticing. But I love the situation for Auburn more; where a new, competent head coach with better players has the opportunity to get his new regime off to a good start against a lesser opponent. It’s one of the reasons why I unloaded on UCLA last year against Rice, though not the only one. Many of the same factors are in play here & this game is at home. In addition, all accounts out of Auburn indicate the players are being worked exceptionally hard in the off-season and the team, to my eyes, certainly looked faster and significantly more physical in spring game – on both sides of the ball – than last year. They were also already more cohesive offensively than the discombobulated mess that was last season’s offense. BTW I am not an Auburn homie - I did not place a single wager on them last year (but made lot of money on them in 2010)

Wazzou will hang around for a half, but will wear down by the 4^th quarter and succumb to greater speed/strength/athleticism and depth of players. 45-23. A top Week 1 play for me, barring significant injuries/off-field situations occuring in August.

GW

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10295

Posted: Jul. 19, 2013 - 2:36 PM ET #62

here's how it works.....

don't think game ....or even scrimmage
*think WWE or Harlem Globetrotters vs Wash Generals maybe......>> it's STAGED

Malzahn....as he does each day.....tells his assistants what HE wants to accomplish each day....

Here he tells his defensive coaches....with a s-h-i-t eatin' grin......"you guys are way ahead of us (offense).....we desperately.....need to build some confidence (ours/fans) today....here's what I want you to do.....................
*blitz here......don't blitz here.....be in cover 0 here.....cover 3 here.........++++

"This way....we give the fans what they came to see...and in the car going home they talk about how much better we looked......and how 'Bama better watch out!!'.......and maybe we keep our jobs a little longer".....

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

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gwjtf

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 613

Posted: Jul. 19, 2013 - 3:32 PM ET #63

I hear ya, bookie. It wasn't what Coach Holtz told us at Arkansas prior to our spring game in 1982, but ya know, he didn't hold on to his job. And it was a long time ago - I completely admit. I have no doubt what you're saying is exactly correct in the majority of circumstances among programs that matter in 2013.

But what I saw in the 1st half of the Auburn spring game much more closely approximated what I believe we will see against Wazzou in week 1. What they did in the 2nd half is exactly what you describe. That, among numerous other factors, will be the basis of my wager.

Moving on, what games do you most like Week 1 & why? Much respect ...

GW

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ibetbig2

Rookie

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 700

Posted: Jul. 20, 2013 - 9:24 PM ET #64

Auburn's DEF is fast and hits hard, they take pride in it and always will.

So your telling me, that soft team from the west up north, is gonna come to the dirty south, and trade blows for 4 qtrs?

I remember the Tigers team from '12, that DEF wk1 vs. a sweet behind clemson team, kept them in the game.

Now they actually have an Offense, that's scary.

One thing i do not like was the number(-11.5)from golden nugget.

that number has been a

for faves, i hope the Tigers can break the curse of (11.5).

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ibetbig2

Rookie

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 700

Posted: Jul. 20, 2013 - 9:25 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by ibetbig2:

Auburn's DEF is fast and hits hard, they take pride in it and always will.

So your telling me, that soft team from the west up north, is gonna come to the dirty south, and trade blows for 4 qtrs?

I remember the Tigers team from '12, that DEF wk1 vs. a sweet clemson team, kept them in the game.

Now they actually have an Offense, that's scary.

One thing i do not like is the number(-11.5)from the golden nugget.

that number has been a

for faves, i hope the Tigers can break the curse of (11.5).

typo.

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Charlie111

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 1978

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 12:13 PM ET #66

While I'm a State fan, this will get ugly in the 2nd half.

Cboys by 21 plus.

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ibetbig2

Rookie

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 700

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 1:51 PM ET #67

In all my years betting i have noticed a trend...

long ago when Ucla played WSU week 1, no one was on it. scared ucla wasn't good enough to cover 16.5 at home to WSU, they blew 'em out. I was on it.

When stanford was played WSU week 1, no one would touch that game(for very good reasons), they knocked 'em out the F'in box. i was on it.

Now fast forward to the present, WSU (+11.5 + 14)@ AUB. I hearing the same theme all over again, for a team that has never proven that it can stand up and fight like a big dog should. When will u guys learn that WSU is just a stepping stone.

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ibetbig2

Rookie

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 700

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 1:53 PM ET #68

typo.

strike that UCLA game off the record.

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MichaelRocks

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 373

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 4:22 PM ET #69

oklahoma st played wsu a couple years ago and people were doubting oklahoma st cause they lose a lot....ok st beat the garbage out of them

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combato

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2001

Posts: 997

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 4:55 PM ET #70

Hi LH

Nice game preview - Looking at end of season stats from last year (not including bowl games), my numbers show OSU winning by 11 ( which means Miss St would be a play at the current line of +14). However, this does not include any adjustments for either team for this season.

Based on your summary, it sounds like you anticipate OSU to be better and Miss St to be worse. What kind of adjustment to OSU -11 would you make based on anticipated performance for this year? (3 pts would make my number OSU -14 and would be a no play. Any thoughts on this).

Have not evaluated anything else yet but this game intrigues me for reasons mentioned in your summary comments.

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combato

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2001

Posts: 997

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 4:57 PM ET #71

Hi LH

Nice game preview - Looking at end of season stats from last year (not including bowl games), my numbers show OSU winning by 11 ( which means Miss St would be a play at the current line of +14). However, this does not include any adjustments for either team for this season.

Based on your summary, it sounds like you anticipate OSU to be better and Miss St to be worse. What kind of adjustment to OSU -11 would you make based on anticipated performance for this year? (3 pts would make my number OSU -14 and would be a no play. Any thoughts on this).

Have not evaluated anything else yet but this game intrigues me for reasons mentioned in your summary comments.

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MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 5:03 PM ET #72

If Miss St line got to 17 I'd have to break the $100 button on Bulldogs.

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combato

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2001

Posts: 997

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 5:10 PM ET #73

Megalocks - you and I thinking alike. I don't think -14 is that solid but you start getting out there at +17ish, it becomes more enticing. Need to watch the line moves from now until game time as well as well looking at Sports Insights action at Pinnacle and other smart books. Too early to know anything yet.

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POISON66

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 2194

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 5:48 PM ET #74

Ok State will score ALOT...... win by 24+

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MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Jul. 21, 2013 - 7:00 PM ET #75

[Quote: Originally Posted by combato]

Megalocks - you and I thinking alike. I don't think -14 is that solid but you start getting out there at +17ish, it becomes more enticing. Need to watch the line moves from now until game time as well as well looking at Sports Insights action at Pinnacle and other smart books. Too early to know anything yet.

[/Quote)

It's early. Just fun to talk about.

Miss St is not garbage and okie st is not that good. If the line gets stupid high I would go Bulldogs on principle.

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Week 1 - Ok St v.Miss St - This is my perspective...I welcome all takes...

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