USF Might have screwed themselves

USF host Boise St Thursday night at 5:30 in TB extremely hyped big game for the Bulls but they leaked on there Social Media account that its a Black Out, I don t understand why you would do that in the first game of the season and its not even a night game considering. All my years with these blackouts the majority of them turn into a funeral for the home side and with this game basically a neutral site makes no sense to me and adding fuel to the fire with Boise. i expect Boise to roll I played the ML just in case with TCU. But if money keeps pouring in on the Bulls and get to 5.5 I will have to indulge now as I expect it will be a funeral for the Bulls. Boise lost Jeanty but they still have a two headed monster backfield as well as defense that ranks in the top 20 cant see the Bulls moving the ball. Boise gets it rolling early probably turn into a 2 TD game 

Prediction:

Boise St-31 USF -14

Boise will score a lot more with their very balanced attack with Maddux back at QB..... I see their number closer to 42-45 pts and USF in the 20's somewhere....its an interesting number Vegas has hung. Go back the last few years and look at teams that had the dominant defense between two teams when comparing spreads and the team that had the better offense rolled

Boise has the better defense and offense over USF who get back a good QB, but he is not the 2nd coming of JC!

@Rocky-Mountain

 Not so fast  USF is 100% legitimate and the real deal on defense and special teams. Both trenches will be a wash. A long flight, like lonnnng flight.  Boise will fight and claw to get away with a win here… Just my 2 cents RM 

What am I missing about the USF defense? They got overlooked in SP+ > RATED 105

I definitely see the edge at SP ....Boise 132nd and USF 25th

The line stinks and do not forget the humidity factor Boise will struggle with I think. Good luck on your play stay away foe me

@Last2thirst

 They’re right there with Tulane as top defense in the conference…Not a weakness anywhere at DL-LB-DB. 8 starters returning   Harris at LB and this dude Rucker CB will lead this defense and Boise better be paying attention.  Shuler another LB ready to light these Broncos up. 

On the other side, Byrum Brown threw for a school record 3,292 yds and can cause havoc with the run.. Strong OL here as well…Keshaun Singleton at wideout is a kid to keep an eye on…

Should be a good game then 

USF definitely moving in the right direction but I see Boise is picked under +200 to be top P5 Group team while Tulane is +800 .... if USF can cover, they will definitely be added to my 'teams to watch' list

Boise broke a lot of big runs for Jeanty with their O-LINE and I definitely see them being ready for the task with 4 returning starters. USF defense will be on the field a lot with USF pace on offense....

Heat and humidity is always a factor for teams from the northwest, but the Broncos prepare by practicing in their indoor facility with the heat cranked up and the sprinklers on to simulate the conditions. That will help. As far as the matchups, Boise has one of the top offensive lines in the country, led by stud Kage Kasey. They only allowed 15 sacks a season ago, and paved the way for 240 rushing yards a game. Yes, Ashton Jeanty has moved on but the running back room is still loaded led by Sire Gaines, who missed most of last season. Defensively they led the nation with 55 sacks and allowed 3.8 yards per rush. The front seven may be down a notch, but the secondary looks solid. Containing USF QB Byrum Brown will be the biggest challenge. He was out most of last year but had a big year in 2023, both through the air and on the ground. Boise counters with Maddux Madsen who threw 23 TD passes with only six picks, and he can run a little too. I'll give Boise the edge on both offense and defense overall, but a big edge in the running game. USF has the better special teams hands down, until the Broncos prove otherwise. I'm not playing this game. The line has come down from the initial opener of -10 all the way to -6 or -6'. Boise struggled at Georgia Southern in last year's opener before putting them away, and the Bulls are better than those Eagles. BOL to whichever side your on. I'm just gonna watch and root for my team. 

@Last2thirst

 SP…. Starting pitchers.  ?

ESPN NCAAF offensive strength, defensive strength and special teams strength....they have added Strength of Schedule as well (SOS)

This is starting assessment after many revisions through the spring ...released the week of August 10-15th every year and I have found it to be helpful in matchup projecting ....Sagarin, Massey, Steele and others are good but I find its handy and changes after each 2 games as the season progresses

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45966848/college-football-2025-preseason-sp+-rankings

BOL thanks for everyones intel on this

Good posts,  I bought (not happy about it) USF up to +7..i reluctantly waited and missed out on +8.  Go Bulls.