Posted:
#1
Guys-
Thought I would give some perspective in this game as well as my play. While I am a Horns fan, I certainly know where to fade them---next week against OU depending on spread most certainly. @ K State later in the year will be a home dog play for me. As I told people last week in numerous threads, the "under" in the Tech game was the play and cashed.
But here we have a UCLA team that rattles off a win against Houston thanks to taking out Case Keenum and its backup qb. This team is still not good, not good at all. They average 17 points a game----really not good. Prince only threw for 100 yards last week, as they really beat up Houston on the ground. This team only averages 27% on third down! And if the running game is the strength---they have already fumbled 8 times and lost 5 of them! Not a good recipe on the road. Prince is only throwing at a 46% completion ratio--and the top WR Rosario has a whopping 200 yards season to date.
On the other side---Texas has the best defense that I have seen in the Mack Brown era. The vulnerability is at the DT spot next to Randall, where teams that are able to run between the tackles will do so--however with UCLA running the pistol, we aren't going to see that as much. It may take a drive for TX to get used to the formation, but I expect Muschamp will have this quashed pretty easily. Rosario assignment will be Curtis Brown--who is playing himself into a 2nd round pick or better. Since UCLA runs the ball, we won't be playing as much nickel and I expect to see a lot less of Chykie Brown (our worst defensive liability, by far). Aaron Williams (a first rounder) will get the other side of the field. UCLA will not be able to throw against us---thereby Muschamp will be loading up the box to stop the run and Prince is going to get sacked 4x at least by Jones/Jeffcoat (UCLA has given up 7 sacks to date, so the o-line is prone to this)
To say Texas is offensively challenged is being nice---but we really aren't as bad as folks think. Gilbert was picked off 3x inside the red zone last week due to tipped balls (the trevails of playing in Lubbock for us). That game should have been 38-7. Gilbert has a completion ratio in the 60s. I expect to see Ayers be lined up on the right side as well after seeing Scott's coming out party last week, so the line will be challenged---but the blocking schemes will be fixed this week in practice. Running backs are banged up, but it really doesn't matter---as UCLA's rush defense is pretty awful (5 ypc) this year as the big DTs graduated and went to the NFL. Texas WILL be able to run the ball on UCLA. On the passing side of things---John Chiles, SR, will be back this week providing some needed depth at the position and leadership. I expect a few less dropped balls. UCLA was giving up 15 yds per catch last time I looked against Stanford, so expect some big plays down field. As long as TX can get something on the ground, play action deep with Gilbert will work (who can place the deep ball unlike McCoy).
Now to intangibles---first is that OU is on deck. That's been a poor strategy for anyone who has watched Mack Brown teams over the past 10 years. Except to Kansas State, TX has been pretty money the week before OU (and the week after, but I digress). This year I believe to be more certain since we really didn't play our best game at TTech and offensively, we were pretty inept.
Second- line. Line has crept down during the week. I think this is just a general fade of UT due to offensive woes---but at 15.5 now, becomes more interesting. People are overreacting to a weird Tech game.
History- of course Horns fans remember the UCLA massacres in the 90s---and talk during the week has focused on those games. I'd bet the locker room has seen the version in Austin (which ironically gave us Mack Brown!) several times. Chip on shoulder edge swings to Texas as well. 66-3 against McNown and Hicks still irks this team, so motivation will not be a problem.
PLAY: TX -15.5....if for some reason I can get 14 by gametime, this wager will go large. The bottom line is that I don't foresee UCLA scoring more than 7 points as Prince won't have time to throw and Muschamp will take away the run. Texas defenses have traditionally overpursued, but this year are playing way better in space than I would have imagined (ie. Tech draws did not work at all). While UCLA's offensive line is experienced, they aren't as talented as our front 7 and I think are going to be overwhelmed. I believe there seniority is why the Pistol has not really worked for them this year. Texas has learned a lot offensively, but I think more wrinkles will come out this week so that they win 28-7.
Thought I would give some perspective in this game as well as my play. While I am a Horns fan, I certainly know where to fade them---next week against OU depending on spread most certainly. @ K State later in the year will be a home dog play for me. As I told people last week in numerous threads, the "under" in the Tech game was the play and cashed.
But here we have a UCLA team that rattles off a win against Houston thanks to taking out Case Keenum and its backup qb. This team is still not good, not good at all. They average 17 points a game----really not good. Prince only threw for 100 yards last week, as they really beat up Houston on the ground. This team only averages 27% on third down! And if the running game is the strength---they have already fumbled 8 times and lost 5 of them! Not a good recipe on the road. Prince is only throwing at a 46% completion ratio--and the top WR Rosario has a whopping 200 yards season to date.
On the other side---Texas has the best defense that I have seen in the Mack Brown era. The vulnerability is at the DT spot next to Randall, where teams that are able to run between the tackles will do so--however with UCLA running the pistol, we aren't going to see that as much. It may take a drive for TX to get used to the formation, but I expect Muschamp will have this quashed pretty easily. Rosario assignment will be Curtis Brown--who is playing himself into a 2nd round pick or better. Since UCLA runs the ball, we won't be playing as much nickel and I expect to see a lot less of Chykie Brown (our worst defensive liability, by far). Aaron Williams (a first rounder) will get the other side of the field. UCLA will not be able to throw against us---thereby Muschamp will be loading up the box to stop the run and Prince is going to get sacked 4x at least by Jones/Jeffcoat (UCLA has given up 7 sacks to date, so the o-line is prone to this)
To say Texas is offensively challenged is being nice---but we really aren't as bad as folks think. Gilbert was picked off 3x inside the red zone last week due to tipped balls (the trevails of playing in Lubbock for us). That game should have been 38-7. Gilbert has a completion ratio in the 60s. I expect to see Ayers be lined up on the right side as well after seeing Scott's coming out party last week, so the line will be challenged---but the blocking schemes will be fixed this week in practice. Running backs are banged up, but it really doesn't matter---as UCLA's rush defense is pretty awful (5 ypc) this year as the big DTs graduated and went to the NFL. Texas WILL be able to run the ball on UCLA. On the passing side of things---John Chiles, SR, will be back this week providing some needed depth at the position and leadership. I expect a few less dropped balls. UCLA was giving up 15 yds per catch last time I looked against Stanford, so expect some big plays down field. As long as TX can get something on the ground, play action deep with Gilbert will work (who can place the deep ball unlike McCoy).
Now to intangibles---first is that OU is on deck. That's been a poor strategy for anyone who has watched Mack Brown teams over the past 10 years. Except to Kansas State, TX has been pretty money the week before OU (and the week after, but I digress). This year I believe to be more certain since we really didn't play our best game at TTech and offensively, we were pretty inept.
Second- line. Line has crept down during the week. I think this is just a general fade of UT due to offensive woes---but at 15.5 now, becomes more interesting. People are overreacting to a weird Tech game.
History- of course Horns fans remember the UCLA massacres in the 90s---and talk during the week has focused on those games. I'd bet the locker room has seen the version in Austin (which ironically gave us Mack Brown!) several times. Chip on shoulder edge swings to Texas as well. 66-3 against McNown and Hicks still irks this team, so motivation will not be a problem.
PLAY: TX -15.5....if for some reason I can get 14 by gametime, this wager will go large. The bottom line is that I don't foresee UCLA scoring more than 7 points as Prince won't have time to throw and Muschamp will take away the run. Texas defenses have traditionally overpursued, but this year are playing way better in space than I would have imagined (ie. Tech draws did not work at all). While UCLA's offensive line is experienced, they aren't as talented as our front 7 and I think are going to be overwhelmed. I believe there seniority is why the Pistol has not really worked for them this year. Texas has learned a lot offensively, but I think more wrinkles will come out this week so that they win 28-7.
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I am staying away from the side as of now, but the over 42.5 seems a very STRONG play! I have a 3 teamer with Texas over 42.5,Bama -7<will roll> and Oregon -11.5 ! 1 unit = +6.5 units 
Good Luck Kroch, and very sound writeup! PG 
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