Spreads WAAAYYY Off For Thursday/Friday Games

verry possible score 

Took CC as soon as I saw lines (- 3 1/2). 4 1/2 here now. BOL.

I had ULL vs App St but my 2c on this game and how i read the line is pretty much backed up by every post I see on here tonight:

Everyone is going to think coastal is a bargain and get mashed when this ends up as a nail biter 1-3 pt game.

OP if you think you're lines are better than Vegas send them this thread Im sure Caesar's will be calling you soon.

If you look around here everyone is on App St., You think vegas odds makers dont take into account how gamblers think the bait to put out there.  Having everyone think oh shit .. home dog on a weekday and app st had be a public fav for years now ..  Yea good luck with that one tonight . 

@NutinButtLove

Fact is, those of us who make money are beating vegas. Period. End of story. You are better than Vegas in your bets. Fact. If you made more money than you lost, up to that point, you have beat Vegas. I am not claiming to be better long run, but I am claiming that up to this point I am better. Not sure why there is skepticism here. Many people are professional gamblers. 

I spend 10 hours per week capping my games. Average Joe is probably 1 hour per week, or less. And averages Joes outnumber sharps 10000-1. The average better, including all sharps, pros, and the public together, probably spends 2 hours per week capping games. So I have an advantage against the public. Casears is making lines with the public in mind, not pros and sharps. Fact is, is Vegas capped the bets my way, they would have too much exposure against them. While they would win if they had unlimited money in the long run, one wrong game would wipe them out as they could have too much money on one side of the bet. Vegas has to cap games incorrectly to avoid this. 

I would add, that the fact Vegas has to cap games wrong is literally where the biggest edge in this game is. Vegas is unlikely to cap games worse than any of us, as they have much more resources to cap games. But, they do have to balance the sides of the bets. Especially in games they spend less resources on capping and have more margin for error. That's my strategy for finding opportunity.

And CC vs App St? They laugh at the size of these bets vs their Big 10 games this week. 

Okay after reading your last 2 points it's pretty obvious you have even less of a grasp of how lines are set and how bookmaking works than I originally thought. I'm not going to keep arguing as you are clearly convinced of your brilliance... Just like the genius poster who thinks somehow that the public is going to be on app st tonight (and not the undefeated team who leads the league in multiple stats and scoring 50 per game)

@NutinButtLove

 All you need to do is look at ATS records to see how teams perform against expectations. If you think the public loves CC, you have to ask why did the books give them so many free points in all the spreads this year? Can you answer that, as you claim to be more knowledgeable about spreads?

APP ST will   BUT YOU ARE RIGHT NO ONE AROUND HERE IS ON APP ST. 

@PeAceMaKer7690

 We have been going back and forth on this game for couple days 

Respect your cap but respectfully disagree. If Coastal covers tonight, ill be in here to offer a sincere congrats 

@GENERALWIZDOM

 Thank you! Best of luck to you! You said it. I just got upset b/c this buttlove guy comes to my thread and makes refutations with no fact or evidence. I love when people disagree, that's the whole point of this thing. But if they are gonna call you out on something, they need to at least give a reason. Anyone can say no, it takes some thought and effort to explain. Appreciate your comment and I hope you have a great night and weekend.

Gonna mark this one in the unlikely game outcomes. Receiver getting 200 yards and successful onside kick. But hopefully it bodes well for my underdogs this weekend. Congrats to the App St supporters this game and best of luck this weekend to all.

@GENERALWIZDOM

 You were spot on with strength of schedule.  

If they don't get the onside kick and CC gets the ball at the 50, game is 21-0 and goes a whole different direction. Aww shucks! Get em next time.

Now you're making excuses. I'm sorry but you were the one who was waaaaaay off.

I tried to tell you, but your head is so far up your own arse you don't even know what you don't know. The fact you (and many others on here, don't feel bad) thought that Coastal laying under a TD was a gift shows that you still have those noob/sucker tendencies associated with the over confident novice.

10 hours of capping isn't necessary to read a line. One glance at this line I knew it was what many will call 'a trap'. The reason a line like this is set low is because people who aren't suckers are set to absolutely hammer the other side if it gets set any higher, especially on the moneyline. And anyone who wasnt a sucker knew Coastal played only cupcakes and App St has ruled this division for the better part of the last 6 or 7 years they weren't gonna roll over at home.

App St's loss by 2 to Miami is better form than any of Coastal's wins. Coastal only beat Buffalo by 2 and Buffalo is nowhere near as good as they were when Paterson was there the 2021 version is crap they only beat Ohio by 1 were losing the whole game, and Ohio is truly awful.

The game could have gone eithee way but it was never going to be, as you said, a double digit margin. Even over a FG was too much.

I HAVE NO PROBLEM ADMITTING WHEN I'M WRONG .... YOU WERE RIGHT .. GOOD CALL.  CC DEFENSE WAS THE ONE THAT PLAYED LIKE SHIT AND APP ST DEF SHOWED UP WHEN IT MATTER IN THE 4TH QTR.  LIKE I SAID GOOD CALL ILL EAT MY CROW NOW!!

So far, spot on

@NutinButtLove

 Am I making excuses? Absolutely! If I didn't, I would have no reason to ever bet again. What am I suppose to say? I don't know how to bet so I give up and I'm done? Over one game? Of course not. I don't make picks based on performances in one game. I use season-average stats. Did you watch the same game as me? the line was -17.5 10 minutes into this game. the game that played out was unlikely. Season-average stats were way off. So I will gladly say I was wrong about that. But I still like my method and won't make an excuse for it. M. WIlliams receiving 200 yards? successful onside kick? the books did not anticipate that. everything else, maybe. I did not anticipate that. This is not excuses. Just because I win a bet, I never am certain I was right and someone was wrong. I may suggest it but very often I will even will know my bet was wrong.  Often I win on a bad ref call or lucky play. Being right or wrong is outside of win or lose in gambling world. if i see a "trap" line like this again, with similar team match ups, i will happily step in it. CC 13-6 ATS last two years. Congrats on your successful pick. On to the next game! 

The stats were way off because they played cupcakes. That makes college a lot harder to cap off stats.

 But the main flaw in the system you are trying to use is you are looking to play on a favorite who isn't favored by as much as you think they should be... Basically saying you want to take every sucker bet trap line favorite on offer. 

Condolences on your Tulane bet if you went through with it. At least you got Ark St.