0-0, +0.00
Not your typical high-profile selection, nor a selection that one would want to venture into on a regular basis, an 0-6 squad falling ever so swiftly catching points at home to a 4-2 program on the rise. The familiarity is there to take the chance, the history is there to take the chance, the storylines are there to take the chance, and the value is there to take the chance.
I’m speaking New Mexico.
Again, New Mexico. They’re 0-6.
How does this hold value? Let’s take a look at the opponents: When you start a season out with Oregon, Utah, and Texas Tech, you’re going to get banged up regardless. They’ve had their slew of injuries, a majority have come back in recent weeks. Texas Tech was -24.5 in this spot this year. Utah was -21.5 in this spot this year. Now we get San Diego State at -24? That’s value. I’m a firm believer in home dogs, more so home dogs with motivation. Motivation going against a former coach, which is where all the clippings and media are focused on in this matchup. Rocky Long returns for the first time to New Mexico to coach his defense where he coached before the move to San Diego State. Rocky hasn’t spoke all week. He’s a great coach, he has this defense at a rocking top 40 in the nation statistical-wise. Be that as it may, they’ve still given up 20+ points in four out of their six games. They bounced back against Air Force last week giving up 25, probably the biggest game in school history at the time beating a ranked opponent at home. They showed extreme flaws losing at BYU giving up 24, also noting Bronco and head man of New Mexico Locksley have ties. They ran into Utah State at the right time, granted they gave up 7 points, but Utah State was looking forward to a mid-week BYU game, which ended with students rushing the field at the end. They played tough at Missouri, I will give them that much credit, but anyone that saw Missouri play the first few weeks of the season would be kidding themselves to say they were playing great football. They gave up 27 here. Prior to that, they went to New Mexico State and let them score 21. Four second half touchdowns made that score a lot further from the truth. They did pitch a shutout this year, congrats, Nichols State. This is a program that’s won a few road games in the last ten years, and none of those wins have been considered blowouts. San Diego State hasn’t won here since 2000. New Mexico has looked borderline awful the last few weeks, with losses to UTEP, UNLV, and New Mexico State. They’ve also been without their star, Holbrook who was knocked out of the Texas Tech game after leading them to their first 17 points. The last four weeks have displayed poor chemistry, poor offensive gameplan, poor defensive gameplan, pretty much poor everything. But with a bye week to right the wrongs, and the basis of the offensive game returning in Holbrook, the team now has more weapons, a wildcat formation to turn to if necessary, and a release on the defense that has been on the field way too much in recent weeks, where they’ve seen their offensive time of possession drop dramatically without Holbrook. The bye week came at the right time. As stated above, the familiarity in this matchup is far too much to display a +24 on the board. New Mexico is familiar with Long’s defense, and Long and Hoke are familiar with New Mexico’s scheme to an extent – they have no idea what’s been going on with Holbrook and the offense for the past two weeks being on a bye.
The motivation is there. The value is there. The Home Pup is there. Returning Stars are there. The Bye Week is there. The Letdown is there.
3* New Mexico +24
0.5* New Mexico ML +1200
Some other shots in the dark...
2* Miami FL -6.5
2* Central Michigan
1* Central Michigan ML +335
1* Indiana +14
1* Utah State +4
0.5* Indiana ML +440
GL 
nropp sighting
Hot Forum Topics
