@jimmydafreak
Luckily for Bama, rain will be clearing out in time for kickoff, greatly improving your team's chances. Only area Indiana better is Cignetti hope it doesn't come down to cosching
Gonna be a delicious game especially if Bama gets out with the lead 
Good Luck today. Best Game today 
Totally concur
Hey Jimmy - good to see you and props for taking a stand on a side you like so much...
I am on Indiana. I can't see Bama stopping the run against anyone - especially a team that runs as well as the Hoosiers. Every metric against the run for Bama is bad - really bad. If the Hoosiers can run, Bama is going to let up a big number today. On the other side - I dont see Bama running on Indiana either - and if they fall behind and arent able to run good luck with Simpson back there in a one dimensional offense.
I think the hoosiers roll today.
GL 
Bad weather definitely favors IU. Bad weather is the great equalizer. That said, the weather forecast was spot on all week. They called for heavy rain in the early morning hours, and light to no rain during the game, and that looks to be about right. They field was obviously cover with a tarp, but I am wondering how soft the turf is. Softer turf marginalizes Alabama's speed advantage. As I sit here right now, I don't think the weather is going to be a big factor.
@blowoutgm
He's the reason I took Miami although I'm not a capper of teams rather the half dozen people here that I follow but seems he has a lot of respect here & he's definitely up on his game. Sure be one heck of a parlay if Bama hits today! BOL to everyone!
@lmb4321
Believe it or not, I said (to my sphere of influence, not online) when Texas beat Texas A&M . . . forcing Alabama UGA II, I said there's a good shot that Alabama and UGA may end up having to play each other an unprecedented third time. When the CFP bracket was released, I saw the only way there could be Alabama/UGA III was if both made it to the title game . . . a scenario that seemed highly unlikely before the bracket was released. But once I saw the bracket, I could not believe what a favorable draw Alabama got. All the teams that I think would give Alabama the most trouble Miami, UGA, Ole Miss, OSU were on the other side of the bracket. I felt like Alabama could beat every team on their side of the bracket.
I am not trying to throw shade on any of the teams on Alabama's side of the bracket. I have not analyzed what an Alabama/Oregon or Alabama/Texas Tech match-up would look like, so I don't want to leave the impression I am looking past those two teams. I think Texas Tech is the biggest mystery in the playoffs, but if their DL is as dominant as advertised, they could definitely cause Alabama a lot of trouble. What I am saying is that, from Alabama's point of view, the draw they got is preferable to the alternative.
I do think Alabama rolls past IU pretty easily today. Can they get past the next opponent, I'm not ready to commit.
On the other side of the bracket, I think Georgia is probably the best team, they certainly may be the best coached team. The problem for Georgia is they have an absolutely brutal schedule ahead of them. Having to beat Ole Miss and Miami back-to-back is ridiculously difficult. Will Georgia do it, I lean yes, but I am not ready to commit to that stance.
The answer is, I have no clue, but if I had to take a stab at it, I will say Alabama/UGA III . . . which would piss everybody off!
That has really been the forecast all week. I don't trust the forecast four days out, but the forecast for the Rose Bowl did not budge all week . . . heavy rain in the early morning hours, and clearing up in the afternoon with a chance of light rain. The condition of the turf is the key. Ultimately, I don't think the weather will play a major role in the outcome of the game.
I posted this in another thread, so I am re-posting here.
I have been a huge Cignetti fan for the past two season long before his arrival in Indiana, and I have watched almost all of their games in the time. Is Indiana for real? Yes. You don't clinch the #1 seed in the CFP if you aren't.
The #1 most important factor that will impact this game is Alabama's health. This will be the first time since very early in the season Alabama will actually be healthy. They will not resemble the MASH Unit that played against Georgia in the title game. Anyone who is analyzing this game, and ignoring the injury aspect, should be summarily ignored.
That said, football is about match-ups, and I struggle to find a single match-up that favors IU. Alabama's defense and secondary will be the best IU has seen all season. That means Alabama should be able to do to IU what they did to Oklahoma - play press-man on the outside, and stuff the box the full of pass rushers and run stoppers. I expect IU's offense to have rough day, and not score very many points.
On the other side of the ball, IU loves to play a 2-deep shell coverage, which invites the run, and discourages big plays. Can IU stuff Alabama's run with a light box, and can IU's front four make Ty Simpson uncomfortable (without blitzing) when passing? IF IU can, then this will be a very competitive game. If they can't, and Alabama forces IU to play man and put more assets in the box, this will be a bloodbath.
The way I think this game play out is that Alabama will jump out to an early lead, and force IU to do something they pretty much not had to do all season - chase points. If that is so, then I predict the following:
a) Alabama will out-rush IU
b) Mendoza will throw more than one pick
@vanzack
Great to hear from you, bro!
I can understand liking the IU side, but the line is completely ridiculous. 2.5 or 3 makes sense, but IU has done absolutely nothing this season that would lead anyone to believe they could cover such a hefty spread against a legitimate opponent. I don't get that. Taking the points looks too easy.
I did address this question in post #84, but the answer is I have no clue. I'm sure I'll have a stronger opinion once I cap the next round games. Oregon won, but I have not watched much of them this season. Now I will have time to watch their games, and take a deeper dive into the Ducks. My guess is the Ducks probably have the athletes to match up with the team I think they will face - Alabama.
bama is one dimensional. oklahoma shutdown their run game. last game brooks came out of nowhere to save them. ryan williams is a shell of himself.
bama got tons of pressure on okalahoma which is also an anomaly. they have not generated pressure the entire year. oklahoma has a very bad oline compared to indy which is elite. mendoza is way better than mateer.
indy has to be off schedule to limit their offense and based off the ENTIRE season alabama struggles to do that. indy actually has a run game with two backs, and mendoza has mobility as well. and once the indy backs get to the second level, bama is one of the worst in the country at broken tackles allowed.
i mean they were down 17-0 to a worse version of indy in oklahoma. lets not forget that.
your main point is that they are getting healthy. i understand and respect your opinion but to simply go off that and think all of bama's weaknesses are all of a sudden gone is tough to digest.
everytime i watch bama, even vs oklahoma simpson is just under immense pressure. and down the stretch he looked a bit injured too. indy will get pressure unless for some reason the tide are able to run the ball, which they still could not do last week.
my one worry is this trend that teams with this long layoff in the quarterfinals are now 0-6 dating back to last year. but with the better defense, run game and a great coach like cignetti hopefully it is neutralized. i think bama 1st half is smarter if you like them to dominate in such a fashion. because they arent coming back from down 17 again vs indy.
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