Public Indicator Calculations 2025

 HL

I like its,   Hoo

very possible to have winning weeks every week , and is you play low number of games its even more possible , played 102 so far  and have had winning weeks each week, just seen your thread, its interesting, diff way of capping for sure, 61-41 this year and have had 5 very bad beats  ,  good luck to you  always wishing everyone the very best ...your thread is interesting  gl brother  151

I hope he has an Iowa play.  Whisky alum but they suck.

Thursday Night Update

North Texas (7.5 units): Steam, sharp indicators, SKS outweighs bye week return

Colorado State (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Rutgers (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Alabama (2 units): low handle favroite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators nd bye week return

Ohio State (1 unit): Sharp indicators outweigh high handle road favorite

Colorado (2 units): line movements, reverse movement

Oregon (2 units): sharp indicators

Texas (4 units): low ticket, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS outweighs sharp indicators and line movement

Tennessee (2 units): low ticket and handle favroite outweighs sharp indicators

Southern Cal (4.5 units): SKS, sharp indicators, bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering

Georgia (3 units): low ticket favroite, sharp indicators outweighs high handle road favorite and bye week return

Utah (5 units): SKS, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

HooAlum!  This absolutely fascinates me as an awesome recipe for success.  Can you share a little about the unit amount and if it’s connected to the line. Is there a line involved at all on these?  Over many moons I’ve tried to understand line movements, low handle, reverse movement I understand.  Low ticket favorite, how close to game time to monitor steam, etc is new to me and cool  thanks for sharing and for any advice on what you’re watching and moving on. Fantastic 

@JJWoods

 yes, the line is very important (especially for SKS).  I take the present line at the time of posting but shop if there are multiple choices (e.g. if DK is at -3.5 and FD is at -3 at similar -110 vig you would be foolish not to take the better option).  Yes, that means you may not get  the lines before something like steam happens.  (of course you would not know the steam will happen until the line moves).  If I see a line moving in some books and you need to lock in, I wil make a note that you might want to do so.  Lines move and I try to post a final about 30 minutes before the kickoff times on Saturday and will alert people if I will be unable to do so.  

@HooAlum

 Thank you for all your efforts! 

@HooAlum

 Tonight's games.  Likely last update for them

North Texas (6.5 units): Steam, sharp indicators, SKS outweighs bye week return

Colorado State (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Washington (1 unit):  low handle favorite

@HooAlum

 So is Washington a change then? Most of the time you note it as a change. Last night you had 1 unit on Rutgers.

Maybe go for the middle in that Wash Rutgers game.  Line really moved to Rutgers.

Im on north Texas but its scary

@HooAlum

Well, the start of the week is as Pete Campbell said in Mad Men, not great Bob.  Hate starting off a week with a bad loss but it is what it is.  Hope to make it up tomorrow.  Want to take an extra note on the Red River Shootout flipping due to the line jumping the fence due to Mateer being listed as probable.  It changes again if they announce Mateer is not playing and it goes back so monitor it.

Alabama (1 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators and bye week return

Ohio State (2 units): Sharp indicators outweigh high handle road favorite

Colorado (2 units): line movements, reverse movement, high handle road favorite outweighs sharp indicators

Kansas State (2 units): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Oregon (3 units): sharp indicators

CHANGE (due to the jumping the fence) Oklahoma (6 units): line movement, steam, sharp indicators

Arkansas (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators outweigh low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

Texas A&M (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Kansas (2 units): sharp indicators

Southern Cal (5.5 units): SKS, sharp indicators, bye week return

Auburn-Georgia (No Bet): low ticket favorite balances high handle road favorite and bye week return

BYU (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite. lopsided wagering, reverse movement outweighs sharp indicator, line movement

Utah (9.5 units): SKS, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

@HooAlum

No complaints. You gave fair warning going into this week. Besides who saw that UNT meltdown coming. Good frief! Recovery forthcoming...

@HooAlum
I’m a Colo State alumn and when I saw CSU on the indicator for tonight’s game, I thought that had to be an error. CSU has the 11th worst offense in the country!   

They blew out Fresno St. (5-1) from the start!  Unbelievable call by the indicators tonight.  Thanks @HooAlum.  

Great looking card….you seem really jazzed on Utah at 9.5 units . I’ll take a deeper look at that one, thanks! 

love this thread 

Love the analytics approach. I can’t pull the trigger on Ohio State. Just have a bad feeling about that game. And can’t ever bet against the Hoosiers. But on the rest. 

I have been using a system almost identical to this for 25 years. Have never really been able to articulate it to people like you have. Thank you for that. 

It is the most efficient way to handicap games. I couldn’t tell you more than a handful of players names because it doesn’t matter. Just analyze the line similar to how you would a stock. Keeps you out of weeds where a lot of people get paralysis by analysis.  

@HooAlum

 A 2-1 night!!!! where the big play failed spectacularly so not a good night.  Nice to get a couple of 1 unit wins but that won't make up for the rout in Denton TX.  Let's hope for a better day.  Here are the 2 noon games. I have one caveat that has an impact for you to monitor.

Alabama (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return.  But a big note.  Monitor.  If the consensus goes from (-3) to (-3.5) that will signal reverse movement and another unit toward the Tide.  But of course try to catch the lagging books on that score and grab the (-3).  DK and Caesars still have it at that level though at -120 while the 3.5s are all at -105.

Ohio State (1 unit): sharp indicator outweighs high road favorite handle 

@JJWoods

Utah opened at -6 and I have it available now at -10. Wonder if it's still large at that number.  

@HooAlum

Giving an early update on afternoon games given a unique component.  

The line just jumped the fence back in the Red River Shootout and that has a HUGE impact.  The steam for OU goes away at the same time it reignites a strong SKS for Texas.  We are presently an 8 unit play for Texas.  Please watch the line.  You might want to wait on this one and bet the favorite 30 minutes out.  It looks like the Horns but this could change.  Vegas is chasing it but I bet they land on the side that is best for them (that's the theory at least).

I'll try to update in a couple of hours closer to game time.  The other 3:30 games presently look like this:

Colorado (6 units): line movements, reverse movement, high handle road favorite sharp indicators

Kansas State (3 units): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Indiana-Oregon (No Bets): No Indicators

CHANGE (due to the jumping the fence) Texas (8 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS, sharp indicators

Arkansas (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators outweigh low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

 30 minutes to go

Colorado (5 units): reverse movement, high handle road favorite sharp indicators

Kansas State (2 units): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Indiana (1 unit): Sharp Indicators

Texas (8 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS, sharp indicators (due to the jumping the fence) 

Arkansas (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators outweigh low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

Likely last update for 7/7:30 games.  I will come back in for something on late night in Provo.  That is a big one so we will see if it keeps the large play (if Texas can't pull this out- "2 points is the new "3" so I do nto feel good as this has OT written all over it and 2 points, not 3 becomes the key number and 2.5 becomes a loser even with  Texas win.  Also note that LSU-South Carolina is now on the board with the Tigers the call.

Texas A&M (2 units): sharp indicators

Kansas (3 units): sharp indicators

Southern Cal (5.5 units): SKS, sharp indicators, bye week return

Auburn (2 units):  high handle road favorite, sharp indicator and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite

LSU (3 units): low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator

BYU (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite. lopsided wagering, reverse movement 

Utah (9.5 units): SKS, line movement, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

Wow Penn State.  Pretty much over for that coach.

Thank you, @Hoo Alum, for that Colorado pick.  There’s no way I’d have chosen that on my own!