Posted:
#1
HONESTLY, NOT A GREAT GAME TO BET ON BUT CAN'T WATCH WITHOUT 
AND A COUPLE BLUNTS
AND A COUPLE BLUNTSWHO'S YOU TAKE?
PUBLIC ALL OVER CLEMSON BUT WHERE ARE THE SHARP$
...
Views: 2691
Posts: 13
Posted:
#2
Alabama is looking for its second straight national title and its fifth in the last eight seasons, riding into Tampa on a 26-game SU win streak that began in Week 4 of the 2015 season. In the Dec. 31 Peach Bowl, the first of the College Football Playoff semifinals, the Crimson Tide (14-0 SU, 10-5 ATS) stifled Washington 24-7 as a 12.5-point favorite.
Clemson will seek a measure of revenge for its 45-40 loss to ‘Bama in last year’s title tilt, in which the Tigers covered the 6-point spread with a touchdown in the waning seconds. Dabo Swinney’s troops had just one hiccup this season, a stunning 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh laying 21.5 points on Nov. 12. Clemson (13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS) recovered to reach the CFP again, then boatraced Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl 31-0 as a 1-point underdog on Dec. 31.
The Tigers’ victory has certainly impressed bettors over the past week at CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M.
“This is a fun game, because it looked like Alabama was gonna be well over a touchdown favorite after they beat Washington. But then you saw Clemson’s great performance over Ohio State,” Simbal said. “We opened the game at (Alabama) -8, and it’s been a flood of Clemson money since that point. The line was down as low as 6 at one point.”
The line bounced back-and-forth between 6.5 and 7 from Monday through Friday before settling in at 7 through the weekend, with CG adjusting the juice, which was +105 on the Tide on Sunday afternoon.
“There’s been over two times more money bet on Clemson. So Clemson is definitely the public side of this game,” Simbal said.
Clemson will seek a measure of revenge for its 45-40 loss to ‘Bama in last year’s title tilt, in which the Tigers covered the 6-point spread with a touchdown in the waning seconds. Dabo Swinney’s troops had just one hiccup this season, a stunning 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh laying 21.5 points on Nov. 12. Clemson (13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS) recovered to reach the CFP again, then boatraced Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl 31-0 as a 1-point underdog on Dec. 31.
The Tigers’ victory has certainly impressed bettors over the past week at CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M.
“This is a fun game, because it looked like Alabama was gonna be well over a touchdown favorite after they beat Washington. But then you saw Clemson’s great performance over Ohio State,” Simbal said. “We opened the game at (Alabama) -8, and it’s been a flood of Clemson money since that point. The line was down as low as 6 at one point.”
The line bounced back-and-forth between 6.5 and 7 from Monday through Friday before settling in at 7 through the weekend, with CG adjusting the juice, which was +105 on the Tide on Sunday afternoon.
“There’s been over two times more money bet on Clemson. So Clemson is definitely the public side of this game,” Simbal said.
“At the moment, 64 percent of the cash and 68 percent of bets on the spread are taking Clemson,” Jerome said Sunday morning. “In a premier game such as this, getting heavy volume, we want to have a decision on as much cash as possible. So instead of moving the number to Crimson Tide -6, I could see us using Bama -6.5 (-105), juicing the ‘dog a bit, as they are the more popular bet.”
Simbal said the sharps haven’t really weighed in yet on this game, creating an intriguing moneyline situation.
“It’s interesting, because so many public bets have come in on Clemson, the moneyline is the one thing that they’re playing,” he said. “Generally, we get a team that’s a 6.5-, 7-point favorite on the moneyline at -250 or greater. Alabama in this game is only -220 on the moneyline, because of how many moneyline bets have come in on Clemson.
“I tend to think that some of the sharp players might wait for that pointspread to stay in the same ballpark, the moneyline might come down a little bit because of how many people are playing Clemson to win. And then (the sharps) can play Alabama on the other end.”
Today, CG adjusted the moneyline on ‘Bama to up slightly to -230, but still below what’s typical for a touchdown chalk. And TopBet.eu found itself working toward CG’s moneyline number, as the offshore book is in a pretty unenviable situation.
“We have a gigantic decision on the moneyline, which opened Tide -255/Tigers +215,” Jerome said “Wednesday, we moved It to -245/+205, then on Thursday to -240/+200. On Saturday afternoon, we moved to -235/+195, and earlier this morning, we moved to -230/+190.
“Since we currently have 85 percent of moneyline cash and 88 percent of moneyline bets backing Clemson, I could see us going as low as -220 on Alabama moneyline at kickoff.”
If you’re having difficulty picking a side or total (50.5) in this game, Simbal said CG’s books around Vegas will have a lengthy proposition bet menu.
“This is a very heavily bet game. It is on a Monday, which kind of hurts a little bit being in Vegas,” Simbal said. “But the props are a huge part of it, and the standard props that people love betting are gonna be available here. The biggest one is the player to score the first touchdown, and there’s a litany of guys who could do it. We know Alabama plays a lot of running backs, we know that (Clemson QB DeShaun) Watson keeps the ball, he can throw very well, he can hand it off.
“So you have so many different options for the player to score the first touchdown, and there’s not a huge favorite in that market. That’s why that’s a real popular one. And also the general props the people like betting – will there be overtime, will there be a 2-point conversion, things like that are very fun for these kind of games.”
Simbal said the sharps haven’t really weighed in yet on this game, creating an intriguing moneyline situation.
“It’s interesting, because so many public bets have come in on Clemson, the moneyline is the one thing that they’re playing,” he said. “Generally, we get a team that’s a 6.5-, 7-point favorite on the moneyline at -250 or greater. Alabama in this game is only -220 on the moneyline, because of how many moneyline bets have come in on Clemson.
“I tend to think that some of the sharp players might wait for that pointspread to stay in the same ballpark, the moneyline might come down a little bit because of how many people are playing Clemson to win. And then (the sharps) can play Alabama on the other end.”
Today, CG adjusted the moneyline on ‘Bama to up slightly to -230, but still below what’s typical for a touchdown chalk. And TopBet.eu found itself working toward CG’s moneyline number, as the offshore book is in a pretty unenviable situation.
“We have a gigantic decision on the moneyline, which opened Tide -255/Tigers +215,” Jerome said “Wednesday, we moved It to -245/+205, then on Thursday to -240/+200. On Saturday afternoon, we moved to -235/+195, and earlier this morning, we moved to -230/+190.
“Since we currently have 85 percent of moneyline cash and 88 percent of moneyline bets backing Clemson, I could see us going as low as -220 on Alabama moneyline at kickoff.”
If you’re having difficulty picking a side or total (50.5) in this game, Simbal said CG’s books around Vegas will have a lengthy proposition bet menu.
“This is a very heavily bet game. It is on a Monday, which kind of hurts a little bit being in Vegas,” Simbal said. “But the props are a huge part of it, and the standard props that people love betting are gonna be available here. The biggest one is the player to score the first touchdown, and there’s a litany of guys who could do it. We know Alabama plays a lot of running backs, we know that (Clemson QB DeShaun) Watson keeps the ball, he can throw very well, he can hand it off.
“So you have so many different options for the player to score the first touchdown, and there’s not a huge favorite in that market. That’s why that’s a real popular one. And also the general props the people like betting – will there be overtime, will there be a 2-point conversion, things like that are very fun for these kind of games.”
Posted:
#4
Here are three mismatches bettors should consider heading into the 2017 national title game:
Tigers' turnover troubles vs. Crimson Tide's ball-hawking prowess
Clemson was a force on both sides of the football over the course of the season, and that was on full display in its 31-0 waxing of Ohio State in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day. The Tigers dominated the Buckeyes in total yards (470-215) and first downs (24-9) while holding Ohio State to just 3-of-16 on third and fourth downs. But Clemson did have two turnovers in the rout, and can't afford to be so careless in the national championship game.
The Tigers might have been elite in a number of areas this season, but turnover differential wasn't one of them. Clemson was an ordinary +1 in turnover margin for the season, and would have been dead even were it not for a 3-2 edge vs. Ohio State. Standout quarterback Deshaun Watson racked up 4,173 passing yards and 38 touchdowns, but finished second among FBS QBs in interceptions (17) and has thrown multiple picks in five different games this season.
That could spell serious trouble against a Crimson Tide defense that made life miserable for opponents all season long. Alabama finished tied for ninth in the FBS in turnovers forced at 27 - even with the Tigers - and had three in a 24-7 triumph over Washington in their national semifinal. In a game in which the Crimson Tide struggled to move the football - compiling just 326 total yards against the Huskies - those turnovers made the difference.
Yet, while Alabama and Clemson were even in forcing turnovers, the Crimson Tide took much better care of the football on offense, turning the ball over just 19 times. That +8 turnover differential was tied for the 17th-best rate in the FBS, and speaks to the success quarterback Jalen Hurts had at limiting mistakes; he had a minuscule nine interceptions on the season, and threw multiple picks just twice. If he can execute a similar game plan Monday, Alabama should win the turnover battle.
Clemson's penalty problems vs. Alabama's superior discipline
It isn't uncommon to see great teams succeed despite struggling with penalties - just look at the Oakland Raiders, who were far and away the most penalized team in the National Football League over the course of the regular season but still made the playoffs. Of course, you can get away with those sorts of things against inferior opponents, but more often than not, a lack of discipline against an elite opponent can spell disaster - and that's a major concern for Clemson on Monday night.
Tigers' turnover troubles vs. Crimson Tide's ball-hawking prowess
Clemson was a force on both sides of the football over the course of the season, and that was on full display in its 31-0 waxing of Ohio State in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day. The Tigers dominated the Buckeyes in total yards (470-215) and first downs (24-9) while holding Ohio State to just 3-of-16 on third and fourth downs. But Clemson did have two turnovers in the rout, and can't afford to be so careless in the national championship game.
The Tigers might have been elite in a number of areas this season, but turnover differential wasn't one of them. Clemson was an ordinary +1 in turnover margin for the season, and would have been dead even were it not for a 3-2 edge vs. Ohio State. Standout quarterback Deshaun Watson racked up 4,173 passing yards and 38 touchdowns, but finished second among FBS QBs in interceptions (17) and has thrown multiple picks in five different games this season.
That could spell serious trouble against a Crimson Tide defense that made life miserable for opponents all season long. Alabama finished tied for ninth in the FBS in turnovers forced at 27 - even with the Tigers - and had three in a 24-7 triumph over Washington in their national semifinal. In a game in which the Crimson Tide struggled to move the football - compiling just 326 total yards against the Huskies - those turnovers made the difference.
Yet, while Alabama and Clemson were even in forcing turnovers, the Crimson Tide took much better care of the football on offense, turning the ball over just 19 times. That +8 turnover differential was tied for the 17th-best rate in the FBS, and speaks to the success quarterback Jalen Hurts had at limiting mistakes; he had a minuscule nine interceptions on the season, and threw multiple picks just twice. If he can execute a similar game plan Monday, Alabama should win the turnover battle.
Clemson's penalty problems vs. Alabama's superior discipline
It isn't uncommon to see great teams succeed despite struggling with penalties - just look at the Oakland Raiders, who were far and away the most penalized team in the National Football League over the course of the regular season but still made the playoffs. Of course, you can get away with those sorts of things against inferior opponents, but more often than not, a lack of discipline against an elite opponent can spell disaster - and that's a major concern for Clemson on Monday night.
Posted:
#5
The Tigers struggled mightily with penalties during the season, racking up the 21st-most infractions in the nation (92) while ranking 90th in fewest penalty yards per contest (59.64). In its three games against ranked opponents during the season, it averaged 7.7 penalties for 69.3 yards; it won those three contests by a combined 16 points, mostly because its foes were even more undisciplined - averaging 10.7 penalties for 101.3 yards. In the loss to Pittsburgh, Clemson had nine penalties for 101 yards.
The Tigers might have escaped with wins over Louisville, Florida State and Virginia Tech thanks in large part to their opponents' penalty struggles, but they likely won't get away with that against the Crimson Tide. Alabama finished in the middle of the pack in total penalties (77), but those infractions were far less damaging - the Crimson Tide compiled just 578 penalty yards through their first 14 games, good for an average of 41.29 yards per contest - 15th-best in the FBS.
No stretch better epitomizes Alabama's elite discipline than the three-game span in which it faced national powers Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU from mid-October to early November. The Crimson Tide incurred just 18 penalties for a minuscule 111 yards, winning those three games by a combined score of 92-24. Few teams can maintain a high level of defense while avoiding flags like Alabama, which has a decided advantage if the game is decided by penalties.
Gallman's dismal December vs. Crimson Tide's relentless run D
No one can deny that Clemson running back Wayne Gallman was one of the catalysts for the Tigers' sensational season, compiling 1,087 yards on 218 carries while adding 16 touchdowns on the ground - tied for 15th-most in the nation. Gallman has five 100-yard efforts on the year, and comes into the national championship game having scored 11 times in his previous seven games. But recent history isn't in his favor, particularly with a brutal Alabama defense waiting for him in Tampa.
Gallman was far from his best in the regular-season finale at Virginia Tech, turning 17 carries into a modest 59 yards and a score. He couldn't get untracked against a solid Hokies defense, and was only slightly better against the Buckeyes, finishing with 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. He averaged a ho-hum 4.1 yards in those two December games - and if you take out consecutive carries of 20 and 18 yards against Ohio State on the opening two plays of the fourth quarter, that average falls to 3.2.
Clemson is going to need their junior workhorse to be much more effective against the Crimson Tide - and that isn't going to be easy. Alabama is in a league of its own when it comes to rushing defense, leading the nation in opponent yards per carry (2.0) and yards per game (62.0). The Crimson Tide allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season; no other team surrendered fewer than five, and only nine other schools limited foes to double-digit scores.
How tall a task does Gallman face? His own co-offensive coordinator, Tony Elliott, believes all eleven Alabama starters on defense will wind up being taken in the NFL draft. The Crimson Tide D limited Gallman to 45 yards on 14 carries in last year's national title game, and is even better heading into the rematch. Watson should be able to cause havoc with his rushing ability, but unless Gallman can break a big one, he's likely going to be in for a long day.
The Tigers might have escaped with wins over Louisville, Florida State and Virginia Tech thanks in large part to their opponents' penalty struggles, but they likely won't get away with that against the Crimson Tide. Alabama finished in the middle of the pack in total penalties (77), but those infractions were far less damaging - the Crimson Tide compiled just 578 penalty yards through their first 14 games, good for an average of 41.29 yards per contest - 15th-best in the FBS.
No stretch better epitomizes Alabama's elite discipline than the three-game span in which it faced national powers Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU from mid-October to early November. The Crimson Tide incurred just 18 penalties for a minuscule 111 yards, winning those three games by a combined score of 92-24. Few teams can maintain a high level of defense while avoiding flags like Alabama, which has a decided advantage if the game is decided by penalties.
Gallman's dismal December vs. Crimson Tide's relentless run D
No one can deny that Clemson running back Wayne Gallman was one of the catalysts for the Tigers' sensational season, compiling 1,087 yards on 218 carries while adding 16 touchdowns on the ground - tied for 15th-most in the nation. Gallman has five 100-yard efforts on the year, and comes into the national championship game having scored 11 times in his previous seven games. But recent history isn't in his favor, particularly with a brutal Alabama defense waiting for him in Tampa.
Gallman was far from his best in the regular-season finale at Virginia Tech, turning 17 carries into a modest 59 yards and a score. He couldn't get untracked against a solid Hokies defense, and was only slightly better against the Buckeyes, finishing with 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. He averaged a ho-hum 4.1 yards in those two December games - and if you take out consecutive carries of 20 and 18 yards against Ohio State on the opening two plays of the fourth quarter, that average falls to 3.2.
Clemson is going to need their junior workhorse to be much more effective against the Crimson Tide - and that isn't going to be easy. Alabama is in a league of its own when it comes to rushing defense, leading the nation in opponent yards per carry (2.0) and yards per game (62.0). The Crimson Tide allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season; no other team surrendered fewer than five, and only nine other schools limited foes to double-digit scores.
How tall a task does Gallman face? His own co-offensive coordinator, Tony Elliott, believes all eleven Alabama starters on defense will wind up being taken in the NFL draft. The Crimson Tide D limited Gallman to 45 yards on 14 carries in last year's national title game, and is even better heading into the rematch. Watson should be able to cause havoc with his rushing ability, but unless Gallman can break a big one, he's likely going to be in for a long day.
Posted:
#10
Quote Originally Posted by FoolishGame:
The Tigers struggled mightily with penalties during the season, racking up the 21st-most infractions in the nation (92) while ranking 90th in fewest penalty yards per contest (59.64). In its three games against ranked opponents during the season, it averaged 7.7 penalties for 69.3 yards; it won those three contests by a combined 16 points, mostly because its foes were even more undisciplined - averaging 10.7 penalties for 101.3 yards. In the loss to Pittsburgh, Clemson had nine penalties for 101 yards.
The Tigers struggled mightily with penalties during the season, racking up the 21st-most infractions in the nation (92) while ranking 90th in fewest penalty yards per contest (59.64). In its three games against ranked opponents during the season, it averaged 7.7 penalties for 69.3 yards; it won those three contests by a combined 16 points, mostly because its foes were even more undisciplined - averaging 10.7 penalties for 101.3 yards. In the loss to Pittsburgh, Clemson had nine penalties for 101 yards.
That's pretty misleading. Ranking 90th in penalty yards means you had just 4 more yards per game than the average team. Moreover, Clemson's opponents had more penalty yards than Clemson by 7 yards a game. And penalties did hurt Clemson against Pitt, but 30 yards of those were totally bogus calls that resulted in an extra 14 points for Pitt.
Posted:
#11
It's funny that everyone says "the public" is on Clemson for the past week, when "the public" generally bets on game day, close to kickoff even. If you hear about money "pouring in on Clemson" right after the line comes out, you can be pretty sure that's not "the public" pouring their money. I'm not saying that anyone should bet any different because of where the money is or is not. But it is the "wise guys" laying big bets on Jan. 1
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