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OFFICIAL MATHEMATICAL FORMULA FOR WEEK 4

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Posted: #1
This is the 3rd year for this FORMULA and i have made a lot of money on it
 
What it does is gives my most probable plays that will win and it runs thru all dogs and favs disecting them from diff angles.
I strayed on some last week and did not do as well as expected,,,,,,,(that will not happen this week.)
 
In reviewing its HISTORY it does tell me that the # of plays will be in dogs and Favorites but i just don't know who.The probability formula does and can state from past years and weeks what the CYCLICAL probability will be.Thus this week its history says there will be or should be a total of 30 plays with the favorites at
 an advantage in plays it posts this week.
 
This ratio is predicated on games offered and lines and is subjected to the specific offering this week vs previous years.
 
 
I do not make any decisions in who to play as i'm just the messenger !!
 
What i do like to do upon posting matchups is ask the guys here esp the good cappers for their EXPERT opinions just to be sure due to injuries,coaches,missing players and etc.their expertise
 
 
 
 
Posted: 9/18/2008 9:26:33 AM
OFFICAL POSTING FOR WEEK # 4 per Mathematical Formula
 
These plays are not final plays ,,,,,,,as want members opinions but they are posted as the best  per Formulas selection
 
APPEARS computor has apprx 30 plays this week from HISTORY of previous years.
 
This group is selected to WIN at a Ratio of 2 W's for every 1 Loss
your job is to select the losers to omit them but understand if omitted the other side should win???????????????
 
 
 
FINAL PLAYS WILL BE POSTED FRI NIGHT in time for all to review for SAT play
 
NOTE all plays have hook so there is no PUSHES
 
 
 
 
DOGS first ( 2-1 Ratio) ,,,,,,,,,,,,ALL LINES are Vegas
 
LINES,,,,,so 4 should lose
 
 
COLORADO,,,,, +2.5
BAYLOR,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MIA OH,,,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MISS ST,,,,,,,,,, +8.5
N/D,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, + 8.5
A/F,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
N/ MEX ,,,,,,,,,,,+10.5
CMU,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +10.5
NC ST,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
TENN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+7.5
ARIZ ST,,,,,,,,,,, +6.5
SJS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +8.5
 
 
 
Next group is selected to cover at a 5-3 clip (DOGS)
 
WAKE,,,,,,,, +4.5
RICE,,,,,,,,, +30.5
IDAHO,,,,,,, +5.5
SMU,,,,,,,,, +24.5
IOWA ST,,,, +2.5
 
 
 
 
FAVORITES ( At  3-1 ,,,will win,,, and cover spread )
 
PENN ST,,,,,,, - 28.5
MISS,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 6.5
BYU,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 28.5
LSU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 2.5
ALAB,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 9.5
S/ MISS,,,,,,,,,,- 9.5
HOUST,,,,,,,,,, - 6.5
RUTG,,,,,,,,,,,, - 6.5
UNC,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 2.5
IND,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 3.5
AKRON,,,,,,,, - 10.5
MIA FL,,,,,,,,,, - 3.5
UTEP,,,,,,,,,,,,  - 6.5
ARIZ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 2.5
 
So approx 5 will lose and not cover,find them and play the other side
 
 
 
 
This group is on a ratio to WIN 1,,,- for every 2,,, that LOSES just opposite DOG posting
 
FAVORITES
 
WV,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 2.5
UCONN,,,,,, - 11.5
CINN,,,,,,,,, - 11.5
G/TCH,,,,,,, - 8.5
MICH ST,,,,, - 8.5
UTAH,,,,,,,,, - 7.5
TULSA,,,,,,, - 10.5
PURD,,,,,,,, - 10.5
ECU,,,,,,,,,, - 7.5
FLA,,,,,,,,,, - 7.5
GEO,,,,,,,,, - 6.5
STAN,,,,,,,, - 8.5
 
That is all the formula is projecting as the best plays with the best odds. Its your judgement to finalize them
 
remember if you omit onr the other should be a WINNER
 
if i have any errors plz don't beat me up as this is a lot of work
 
 
 
Now i need all the EXPERTS here to say who will win and cover,one additional NOTE,,,,,,,,,History says amongst this group there will be 4  dog Ml SU winners
 
Next week there will be 25 dog winners with 11 SU dog winners and history says don't miss it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Regarding the NFL i have  one group DOGS that are comming up as strong canadates as WINNERS ,in fact they  should sweep
 
 
 
 
3 hours to put this all together, hope you win some money, need to burn this mountain of spread sheets don't want book to get it
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
I think Arkansas is the bet in the Bama/Ark game.  Home dogs of 9+ points in SEC conference play over the past 3 years 9wins to 2 losses. Arkansas has had extra time to prepare for the game since the game last week was postponed. According to the coach they have had 2 extra practices that they wouldn't normally have.

Tenn +7.5
Tenn hasn't lost a home game since 2006.  Florida is a  4 loss team that is the media's fav. pick to win the SEC despite having a poor defense last year.  Public is on Florida heavy
Wake +4.5
Miss st +8.5
Not enough offense on either side of the ball to win by more than 8 points.  Miss st has a good defense and should be able to keep the game close.  Coach is talking about using 2 QB system after last weeks offensive performance.
LSU -2.5

Those are all the plays i like strong.  Im not going to give my thoughts of the UGA/AZ st game because i am a UGA homer. However i will be on UGA.


Enjoy your posts goalline
 
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Posted: #3
young thnx for post i will note your plays  and will compile a winners list thru to sat monn for final tally
 
one note about t nites game will Colorado be the VICTUM or the first winner of that group it has a 2-1 advantage of being a winner and if were able to select the losers then the play becomes more SOLID and stronger play $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 
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Posted: #4
so colorado is play?
 
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Posted: #5
Here are my plays:
 
Akron -10
Colorado +3
Miami OH +11.5 (ML play)
San Jose St. +8.5
Alabama -9.5(Arkansas is bad)
Houston -6.5
Indiana -3.5
Wake Forest +4.5
Miss St./Georgia Tech under 38   (Love this one)
 
BOL
 
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Posted: #6
regarding Colorado lets see how many people select them vs WV but system is leanig their way
 
 
what we can do is play it light and just see how this plays out as if Colorado wins then we have BAYLOR next
 
 
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Posted: #7
INF your plays are recorded
 
 
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Posted: #8
 
Here we go Bob. Red denotes losers. Green Winners. In this 1st group I'm showin 4 ATS Red losers; and, Green are ATS winners that I'm playin or leanin.
 
GROUP 1:  
DOGS first ( 2-1 Ratio) ,,,,,,,,,,,,ALL LINES are Vegas
 
LINES,,,,,so 4 should lose
 
 
COLORADO,,,,, +2.5
BAYLOR,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MIA OH,,,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MISS ST,,,,,,,,,, +8.5
N/D,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, + 8.5
*A/F,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
N/ MEX ,,,,,,,,,,,+10.5
CMU,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +10.5
NC ST,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
TENN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+7.5
*ARIZ ST,,,,,,,,,,, +6.5
SJS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +8.5
 
* denotes only a lean to play...... against I guess.
 denotes already booked.
 
Group 2:
Next group is selected to cover at a 5-3 clip (DOGS)
 
WAKE,,,,,,,, +4.5
RICE,,,,,,,,, +30.5
IDAHO,,,,,,, +5.5
SMU,,,,,,,,, +24.5
IOWA ST,,,, +2.5
 
SMU was only 1 that remotely qualified as an ATS loser, because I like the others and all may very well end up on my card. 
 
lookin at final revisions of gps 3 & 4  
 
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Posted: #9
GROUP 3:
FAVORITES ( At  3-1 ,,,will win,,, and cover spread )
 
So approx 5 will lose and not cover,find them and play the other side
 
Red denotes losers; and * or * denotes games I'm leanin on playin against; and  denotes already booked.
 
PENN ST,,,,,,, - 28.5
MISS,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 6.5
BYU,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 28.5
LSU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 2.5
ALAB,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 9.5
*S/ MISS,,,,,,,,,,- 9.5 (leanin Marshall)
HOUST,,,,,,,,,, - 6.5
RUTG,,,,,,,,,,,, - 6.5
UNC,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 2.5
IND,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 3.5
AKRON,,,,,,,, - 10.5
MIA FL,,,,,,,,,, - 3.5
UTEP,,,,,,,,,,,,  - 6.5 (N.M.St. Booked)
ARIZ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 2.5
 
GROUP 4:
 
In this group I'm showin 8 ATS Red losers; and, Green are ATS winners that I'm playin or leanin so far. Black= no informed (or uniformed) opine.... yet at least. A couple more could easily have been Black, but I wanted to drop 8.
 
*WV,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 2.5(leanin Col)
*UCONN,,,,,, - 11.5(Leanin Baaaaylor)
CINN,,,,,,,,, - 11.5
G/TCH,,,,,,, - 8.5
MICH ST,,,,, - 8.5
UTAH,,,,,,,,, - 7.5
TULSA,,,,,,, - 10.5
PURD,,,,,,,, - 10.5
ECU,,,,,,,,,, - 7.5(play on NCST)
FLA,,,,,,,,,, - 7.5
GEO,,,,,,,,, - 6.5 (at 6.5, leanin Ga)
STAN,,,,,,,, - 8.5
 
 
its a start anyway....  
 
 
 
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Posted: #10
good work man thanks a and goood luck to u i will for sure look up into this
 
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Posted: #11
Looks like a got 12 dog winners(including black undecided-s. So, based on yesterdays premise of 11, I got 1 too many
 
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Posted: #12
Bob,
The I like Colo and Baylor.The line movement also fits Baylor.I will be playing those 2 for sure
 
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Posted: #13
thnx tree
 
 
recorded
 
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Posted: #14
MJ
 
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Posted: #15
just capped NFL and intresting stuff over last 2 years
 
 
 
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Posted: #16
STRONG DOGS ( that could win at a 2-1 ratio)
 
GREEN = agree
RED = disagree
 
 
COLORADO,,,,, +2.5   (Kane's system likes West Virginia)
BAYLOR,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MIAMI OH,,,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MISS ST,,,,,,,,,, +8.5
N/D,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, + 8.5
A/F,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
N/ MEX ,,,,,,,,,,,+10.5
CMU,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +10.5 (Kane likes Purdue)
NC ST,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5 (Neither)
TENN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+7.5
ARIZ ST,,,,,,,,,,, +6.5
SJS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +8.5 (Spartans out-right winner!)
 
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Posted: #17
RUN AWAY FROM THIS THREAD NOW.
 
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Posted: #18
Whats with the colorado play? I've been watching very closely, and it seems like the opposite of yesterdays... I took louisville big. Knowing that they are a solid team that lost to an up and coming UK team. While K state rolled over two teams in two straight unlined contest, on the flip side UL was only giving up 1.7 ypc on the ground... K state and Colorado are bottom dwellers in the big 12. Colorado came up with big plays in a contest that was closer than the score suggested against CSU, a team that barely beat a D-1AA team as a 28 point fav(Sac St.) And they also needed 17 fourth quarter points against East washington, and a pick six with less that two minutes to go just for the win. West virginia lost to a very good ECU team an gave up 14 meaning less points to villanova i the fourth... if the line moves to four then i like colorado. if not then i'll pass and maybe play small on the over.
 
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Posted: #19
Just joined this site, but been playing for 6 years now... BOL to all your plays! Cuz we're all here for the $$$$$
 
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Posted: #20
COLORADO,,,,, +2.5
BAYLOR,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MIA OH,,,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MISS ST,,,,,,,,,, +8.5
N/D,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, + 8.5
A/F,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
N/ MEX ,,,,,,,,,,,+10.5
CMU,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +10.5
NC ST,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
TENN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+7.5
ARIZ ST,,,,,,,,,,, +6.5
SJS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +8.5


My initial reaction...I will look closer at this towards Saturday.

I would consider the following:

IF Colorado wins (you all will enjoy this logic), I'm playing UCONN tomorrow night.  Plan to now anyway...switch out Baylor.

CMU - Purdue will play up and has a lot of experience with this team from last year.  Purdue's defense needs work, but if they course correct after last week, they will jump into an early lead and NOT give it away.  Oregon is fast, CMU is not so fast.

Here is my prediction...and it hurts to say this.  Florida gets upset or nearly upset by Tennessee.  UGA crushes Arizona State....note for later in the season, Florida beats UGA.  Keep Tenn, swap in UGA.

Miami OH and SJS...like it.

Notre Dame...questionable.  They are clicking right now and have regained confidence.  Michigan State is better, but hasn't really done well ATS, at least not in the 1st Half.  Keep N/D.

For what it's worth, I'm on Auburn this weekend.

Catch up with you soon.




 
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Posted: #21
I think Notre Dame, Tennessee and San Jose State are outright ML winners.
 
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Posted: #22
COLORADO,,,,, +2.5
BAYLOR,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MIA OH,,,,,,,,,,,, +11.5
MISS ST,,,,,,,,,, +8.5
N/D,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, + 8.5
A/F,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
N/ MEX ,,,,,,,,,,,+10.5
CMU,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +10.5
NC ST,,,,,,,,,,,,, +7.5
TENN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+7.5
ARIZ ST,,,,,,,,,,, +6.5
SJS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +8.5
 
like most of the dogs except CMU and Rice, of course due for some large losses so you may be ok - BOL this week goalline
 
 
 
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Posted: #23
The public is heavy on WV tonight. Right now its 77/23.
 
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Posted: #24
these are the pigskins straight up money line winners:
 
Wake Forest + 4 1/2 This team seems to always give Fla St fits and if you look at the last 10 seasons, Wake is 9-1 ATS vs the 'Noles.  the last 2 seasons the Demon Deacons have won straight up as a dog. I think the y make it three. also, fla st has played w. carolina and chattanooga whereas Wake has played Baylor and Ole Miss.
 
Navy + 6 1/3 Rutgers just has not impresed me in 2 games ive seen them play so far. i think navy will give them fits with their offense.
 
Ball St + 3  I think nate davis will throw the ball up and down the field on the Hoosier secondary.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
GL this wk
I like some of the dogs especially SJ St, Tennessee, Colorado, Miss St.
 
MEGA
 
 
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