Not a soul in this universe will want to make this bet, let's do it

Kansas State

More of my thoughts later, but go ahead let's talk about it.

Fwiw, my picky record this season so far

2-1 overall +$277

2-0 ats +$327

0-1 ML -$50

I don't bet much college, never have. Although I'm finding this season absorbing 

@undermysac

 Any thoughts on Da Bears tonight.? 

I wouldn't bet on them.

Nor the Vikings 

Like the way you're thinking.....

Something is wrong with KSU for sure, maybe a European road trip extended hangover?.... it's happened. 

A team to play on at some point for sure, but now? I can see them killing Zona - BUT with a bye on deck, I could easily see another no show here - THEN getting it together at home off the bye...

Probably a good one to pass on - but what TF has Zona done? This one would have been KSU -10 or so week one... 

How funny. I just opened the site and came to the ncaa forum and was going to make a post asking if I'm missing something because I had this line way higher and the fact it is +.5 makes me think KSU is a great play 

@undermysac

 I’m a fool about this game too and I love this bet.  What has ARZ done since last years debacle of a season and who have they played? 

K St to this point has had a heck of a time getting normal after an international game and no rest or bye week.  

I am speculating after last week they get things normalized.  

Matchup  wise, K St last 2 opponents were against ground and pound fundamentally tough teams.  ARZ is not that. 

Id be real happy is elite back Dylan Edward’s returns to play as well.  

I went ahead and made the play 

Thanks gents.

Spottie, I'm convinced that Dylan Edwards plays. This is a rally spot, it has to be. If K state loses this game the season is officially down the drain. All hands on deck type of spot, and these type of situations tend to get players to strap on the cleats whether or not they're 100%.

K state has had a brutal travel schedule. Starting with Ireland in week 0. Looking back at that game, does the 3 pt loss to the Cyclones really look that bad at this point? A game in which Dylan Edwatds rolled his ankle on the first punt return of the game.

The following game vs North Dakota, where they were supposed to win by a million points, they barely escaped with a 3 pt win. As someone mentioned above, Ireland hangover? Possibly. 

Then Army comes to town. Who in this age of football wants to prepare(or capable) of preparing for the option? Kids in high school don't even run option anymore. Hard game and deflating. 

I don't think that the Wildcats(K state) can afford to "get right" after the bye. This isn't the nfl with a 17 game schedule with multiple playoff spots. If they start the season 1-3, that bye week gets even worse. That's a long 2 weeks sitting around knowing that you suck.

AZ is 2-0 ats vs pretty bad competition. 

K st is 0-3 ats vs a tough Iowa st, bad travel spot, and a tricky offense to defend. 

Like BA said, what would have this spread been before the season began? There's value here combined with a desperation spot.

I will say that I was a little concerned that AZ may look at this game as a revenge spot. As K st waxed em last year 31-7. But I then thought "who didn't wax AZ last year?" They can't take all their big12 opponents as "revenge" games really. Here's an article I read from the AZ side of things. A QA with coach Brennan. I did not get any revenge or ra ra feels coming from him.

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/football/69456/arizona-wildcats-football-brent-brennan-press-conference-preview-kansas-state-avery-johnson-penalties-retro-big12-2025

I'm glad another poster above pointed out that the type of offense that AZ runs is nothing like what k state has seen the last 2 weeks. Now I don't have to type much more on that detail. Much different dynamics in this one.

I think this game goes one of 2 ways.

1. I'm completely right and K State's rally is too much for AZ to handle. AZ gets brought back down to earth.

2. K State rallies hard, but AZ is ready for it. The spread that the books hung is actually quite close and we have a 50/50 chance.

But I can't be that cocky or self absorbed either. There is a chance that there's something fundamentally or internally wrong with k state and their struggles continue. If so I'll eat crow. I just feel like there's very little chance of that. There's too much talent on this team for them to start the season ranked 17.

@undermysac

 I keep a big picture perspective on the evaluations of rankings and previous lines.  The fluctuations within the season provide a sharp eye opportunity.  I love big fluctuations because if the team confuses the book (lines maker) the lines become hard to evaluate, thus opportunities arise.  This is one of those games.  Doesn’t mean it wins it’s just an opportunity.  

Because the line is a pick I rate it more of a matchup game.  I prefer games with more points but in this case I feel like I have Arizona’s rating pegged correctly.  We’ll see about that in a few days. 

Dylan Edward’s can be a game changer too.  More touches more explosive plays and excitement. 

Dunno if mentioned....

This is a non-conference game - KSU can get their azz kicked here, and still win the wacky B12..... so huge for MO sake, but not a season-ender.

Earlier today: RB Edwards "questionable to doubtful" - #2 WR, (but most explosive) Bradley is out for a few weeks.

* Since a non-conference game - fewer injury reports are required, so expect nothing more till kick-off.

I don't think this will be close, either way - KSU should be all in, or not.  I would play an alternate line maybe.  OR, play KSU live/2H

KSU -3 / +123

KSU -6' /+184

KSU -9' / +245

@bookieassassin

 Arizona left the pac12 two years ago.

It's still hard for me to think of them as big12, and all the other teams that have switched conferences for that matter

@undermysac

 ??

It was scheduled THEN - it's a non-conference game that does not count towards B12 title

That's weird

You thought..... that the ol' BA didn't know that Zona was in the B12?

Damn respect your elders man haha

* I DO think that Maryland is in the ACC occasionally

@bookieassassin

 I knew something was wrong when I thought you might of slipped. 

Wtf, non conference game vs conference opponents.

Will it really have a "non conference" feel? Probably not.

Does coach know that he can let this one slide and still win the conference? Probably. 

I'll still back them most likely, but will look into more before betting 

Naw -  I would be shocked if they lose this one myself ....(as a KSU homer)

Just reading the coach's comments talking about how beat up they are - I can see yet another weak effort...

IF you were the coach, and your best RB was banged up - would you play him HERE/risk further injury ..... or sit him, and have him fully healthy for conference play? 

I'll make a small ML play probably - along with a tiny play at 6' or 9'

I like Zona here at home, but line movement is shifting to KSU.

KSU has some problems and have been lackluster. Yeah, North Dakota is a good FCS ball club, but they’re an FCS ball club. Army isn’t as good as they were last year, but they are always pretty disciplined. I’m not saying KSU definitely won’t find a rhythm this week or this year, but they better do it this week if they want to beat what looked like a pretty good Wildcats offense from what I’ve seen

Hawaii and Weber State obviously aren’t super good tests to go by, but it’s a similar stand in for North Dakota and Army. One team handled the weaker competition easily, and one team struggled bigly. KSU played the weaker teams as equals, and Arizona played the weaker teams as cupcakes. Obviously there is not a good parallel for an ISU game. 

I’ve watched the ISU/KSU, Tarleton State/Army, and the Arizona/Hawaii games 

I expect a good game here and the line suggests a coin flip, but I lean Zona as objectively as I can be (Zona alum). I typically don’t bet Zona games as a homer unless I really like my read and feel that it’s objective. Zona opening as a favorite over KSU also says something 

Careful which wildcats team you see as a lock here 

@wankerjake

 Thanks for your take 

Good luck Sac.  

I’ve been watching this one too. -1.5 was -108 and the ML was -120. I almost took em at -120. I’m seeing -1.5 -114 and ML -126. Still haven’t made my play. But if they drop back down to -120 imma hit it. And if I notice it creep to -130 I might have to bite then. Cause if it rises to 130 I look for it to climb.