No ACC team in CFP if Duke wins Conference Championship

That would be an awful look for the ACC, but warranted. The conference has become more of a Group of 5 conference instead of a Power 4 (in football).

I’m not into conspiracy theories, but I could see a flag or two going in Virginia’s favor. What a disaster for a once mighty conference if they get shut out of the CFP.

It’s possible a Virginia loss would open the door to Miami getting in, but there are quite a few 2 loss teams stacked up around the 10 spot. 

I did take the -135 on Virginia moneyline. 

I expect Virginia to win this game regardless of any ref stuff. Granted anything is possible but Duke has been hot and cold all year. They went 0-3 against Out of Conference FBS opponents (Illinois, Tulane, UConn) but still made the Conference title game which is wild.

@AJ86

 Atleast 1 team from ACC will make.  Even if it is Duke.  Who ever wins the conference has a automatic bid.

No they won't. They are not putting a 5 loss team in the playoffs.

@AJ86

 It is part of the rules setup for the 2025-2026 season.  Go read them.

@Spykeo

I've read them. And your wrong. Also read this below as more evidence.

 The College Football Playoff's selection criteria is often misstated as the champion of the four power leagues (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC) and the top ranked Group of Five champion ahead of at-large picks. But that's not quite it. The criteria is actually the top five ranked league champions. While that will usually be the four power champions and a G5 team, it's not guaranteed that way.

If 7-5 Duke takes down Virginia, an 8-5 Blue Devil team would not be one of the top five ranked league champions. Sun Belt champion James Madison and AAC champion North Texas or Tulane are two teams that would almost certainly outflank the Blue Devils-- and thus earn the CFP automatic spot. Matt Baker of The Athletic notes that the Mountain West champion could even earn a spot over Duke.

If that happens, it's entirely plausible that the ACC is out in the cold. A three-loss Virginia team wouldn't seem to attractive as an at-large pick. Miami is the top-ranked ACC team, but ESPN's most recent FPI rankings gave the Hurricanes a 10.1% CFP chance.

@Spykeo

 Duke won’t be ranked, which is now a variable. If Duke wins, the ACC could potentially be out. 

Exactly 

The ACC (in football) is closer to the American Conference if anything. This is why I think James Franklin going to Virginia Tech is a great move. Less "pressure" games for him which means he can thrive.