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NCAAF WEEK 7 Tico Joe's Statistical ATS Week #2

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Posts: 57

jimrockford22

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 2175

Posted: Oct. 8, 2013 - 11:00 PM ET #26

semi grunching but does it really matter if his model is assigning a way too high probability on his plays....

all i care about is that his model really like these games and whether his model has any predictive value.... and i appreciate him sharing with us.

MurkCity

Veteran

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 1316

Posted: Oct. 9, 2013 - 9:15 AM ET #27

Buffalo, No Illinois, and ASU parlay

jackal4422

Rookie

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 972

Posted: Oct. 9, 2013 - 9:21 AM ET #28

GL Tico , system looks good

HoustonSports

Hall of Fame

Joined: Apr, 2004

Posts: 22937

Posted: Oct. 10, 2013 - 8:42 AM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:

Update:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67%

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

I am strictly running the numbers and data on teams that have a high probability of covering the spread and that is all I will be listing. I appreciate all the comments even the negative ones as everyone has a point of view. I am not trying to win any contest or claim to be anything special just want people to CRUSH the BOOK. Play them, don't play them, but if you do play, always bet what you can afford.

NORTH TEXAS and GEORGIA have been removed do a mistake I made on my calculations. They still can cover if you bet them, but my high probability is not so high after re-running the data. I still had them both in the low 60% range.

I feel these are twelve highly probable games that can cover ATS for WEEK 7.

crushmybookie dot com

There is one problem with your Cinci pick. I do not think you are taking into account Tuberville's ability to completely mismanage a game a screw a team up

Dee1187

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 100

Posted: Oct. 10, 2013 - 2:38 PM ET #30

ticojoe

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2674

Posted: Oct. 10, 2013 - 11:02 PM ET #31

Update:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67%

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

Home - Ohio -17.5 ATS 89% added 10/10

Home - Houston -9.5 ATS 91% added 10/10

Added two more gems that will come in tomorrow......

Pura Vida

ticojoe

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2674

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 12:23 AM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by jpurdy2:

whatever you do is working, your making money, its respectable, only pick I'd disagree with is Air Force(although you said possible play), AF literally has the worse defense in the country, ranked dead last in scoring defense and SDSU appears to have found rhythm on offense the past three weeks

side note: Air Forces last ten games ATS they are 2-8

BOL

I am glad you wrote this as I ended up going the other way and taking San Diego along with USC on a 2-Team Parlay for $100. Just waiting for USC to close out this game.....

I ran some more numbers and added two more games that should cover on Saturday (Ohio and Houston)

Pura Vida

Ice4Blood

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 11845

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 12:43 AM ET #33

Ohio U... another play that I am on... don't know what your system is, but it sure seems to come up with a lot of the same plays as me!

ticojoe

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2674

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 12:47 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

Ohio U... another play that I am on... don't know what your system is, but it sure seems to come up with a lot of the same plays as me!

I only pick games that have high probability of covering against the spread. You should post your plays in advance, no need to keep all that information to yourself.

Anyway, even though I didn't post them, I hit all three college games tonight on a parlay just waiting for USC to come in....

Pura Vida

ticojoe

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2674

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 12:54 AM ET #35

UPDATED CARD:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67%

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

Home - Ohio -17.5 ATS 89% added 10/10

Home - Houston -9.5 ATS 91% added 10/10

Added two more gems that should come in on Saturday.....

Pura Vida

Ice4Blood

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 11845

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 2:33 AM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:

I only pick games that have high probability of covering against the spread. You should post your plays in advance, no need to keep all that information to yourself.

I always post my plays when I put the actual bets in... always!

Spot0n

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 123

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 3:35 AM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:

UPDATED CARD:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67%

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

Home - Ohio -17.5 ATS 89% added 10/10

Home - Houston -9.5 ATS 91% added 10/10

Added two more gems that should come in on Saturday.....

Good stuff Tico, about to add Ohio and Houston to my card

jpurdy2

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 473

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 9:46 AM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:

I am glad you wrote this as I ended up going the other way and taking San Diego along with USC on a 2-Team Parlay for $100. Just waiting for USC to close out this game.....

I ran some more numbers and added two more games that should cover on Saturday (Ohio and Houston)

Nota problem brother, nice comeback by SDSU and USC almost blew it lol they shoot themselves in the foot by soooo many penalties I hate watching them play

BOL this weekend

I like NIU, Stanford, and Oregon

ticojoe

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2674

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 10:20 AM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by jpurdy2:

Nota problem brother, nice comeback by SDSU and USC almost blew it lol they shoot themselves in the foot by soooo many penalties I hate watching them play

BOL this weekend

I like NIU, Stanford, and Oregon

Holy crap I went to bed thinking USC was a done deal..... If I had of lost that game not only my $2500 dollar parlay ticket goes up in smoke but so does a TV through a wall.......

You should add Ohio too.....

Pura Vida

Dclown

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 858

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 10:41 AM ET #40

jpurdy2

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 473

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 11:23 AM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:

Holy crap I went to bed thinking USC was a done deal..... If I had of lost that game not only my $2500 dollar parlay ticket goes up in smoke but so does a TV through a wall.......

You should add Ohio too.....

Im definitely going to add Ohio, but yeah that USC game almost took some gambling years off my life lol

Ill post my other plays I like on here later tonight around 6

ticojoe

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2674

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 12:13 PM ET #42

UPDATED CARD:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67%

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

Home - Ohio -17.5 ATS 89% added 10/10

Home - Houston -9.5 ATS 91% added 10/10

Road - Baylor -17.5 ATS 85% added 10/11

Road - Texas A&M -5.5 ATS 85% added 10/11

Home - Maryland -7 ATS 86% added 10/11

I added some more, but want to let everyone know that Bowling Green has me a little concerned. I am still leaving it up but without going into my reasoning just stay off that game.

Pura Vida

lordzud

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 2349

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 12:41 PM ET #43

I may disagree with your percentages but by and large I like your card. good luck Tico, and keep on posting your plays.

iamnomad

Prospect

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 126

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 1:57 PM ET #44

nice call on Rutgers...BOL rest of weekend.

kojak

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 99

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 4:31 PM ET #45

jpurdy2

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 473

Posted: Oct. 11, 2013 - 6:11 PM ET #46

I have an 19 team card this weekend, here's my picks:

Noon:

Oklahoma

Michigan State

Va Tech

Nebraska

Missouri

TCU

2PM-5PM:

Western Carolina

Colorado State

Florida

Oregon

Baylor

Northern Illinois

Ohio

Rice

Late:

Texas A&M

Stanford

Colorado

Alabama

Boise State

thoughts, comments, roasts are more than welcome

BOL gentleman lets make that "straight cash homie"

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:47 AM ET #47

Seems like most of your ATS losers are in the 70 to 79 % Range .. May be a go against in that range ?? Also , any movement that is more than a point either way , fav or dog , I will throw a few chops on it .. Example .. Like your ATS Buff - 12 1/2 ATS 95% and the line is dropping ?? I will make Buffalo a bigger play , since you have been hitting on your 90% ATS Range and line is going in my favor Buff is now 9 1/2 .. Opposit N ILL line is going up .. Taking Akron ..

JVSFGIANTS

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 1182

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:57 AM ET #48

GL love ya plays

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 8:02 AM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Seems like most of your ATS losers are in the 70 to 79 % Range .. May be a go against in that range ?? Also , any movement that is more than a point either way , fav or dog , I will throw a few chops on it .. Example .. Like your ATS Buff - 12 1/2 ATS 95% and the line is dropping ?? I will make Buffalo a bigger play , since you have been hitting on your 90% ATS Range and line is going in my favor Buff is now 9 1/2 .. Opposit N ILL line is going up .. Taking Akron ..

Decided not to go against the Big lines .. N ILL and AZ St

BandosWB

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2909

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 8:25 AM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

Still to this day, the most memorable thing anyone has ever said to me as advice in this game came from this 70 yr old wise guy at the Stardust, ages ago! He said... "You know what your problem is? You want to win every game..."

This is so true. Weird but going 16-18 flat betting doesn't hurt much but losing a "big" play hurts. Isn't this why people play teasers....(me included)

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NCAAF WEEK 7 Tico Joe's Statistical ATS Week #2

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