I believe it's a "tooth-out" in Lexington on Saturday (and most other days), so make sure you take that into consideration when factoring just how much the crowd will, in fact, be a-rockin'. In all, I make Kentucky my Dental-Reverse-Line-Movement-Vegas-Head-Fake-Train69 LOCK OF THE WEEK. 
Kentucky 2.5 Missouri (44)
Megalocks line -3
disclaimer: It has been our experience at Covers that more often than not - when a veteran capper has a strong take on a local team - whether it be Rutgers, Missouri, Syracuse, etc...the win rate is very good and would hazard a guess that you would be down quite a bit fading those picks; Just our opinion no facts to back it up. Our psychotic yet subtly humble pal TRAIN loves Missouri in this one so I would guess that it is going to be a winner based on his history. The write-up below is our usual objective take that SUBSCRIBERS DEMAND from us to make their own educated decisions. 
1. We picked Georgia team total under last wk so we often STINK
2. We ALSO had the Missouri game nailed 
as our 234572389479 unit CRACK PIPE SPECIAL 
and the game played out for both teams pretty much like we thought. So news that Missouri is not very good is really not a surprise to us.
3. We have the fair line at -3. DoubleUp has it at -3. Sagarin has it at -2.4 for MISSOURI including taking SOS into account...yes it is early and we do not look at his ratings seriously until there is more data BUT just saying that is pretty much an industry standard so its not like any reasonable person on earth can say the line is way off.....Having said THAT - handicapping is more than numbers - it is an ART. It is reading between the lines that matters, local knowledge, watching games etc...We defer to that - just pointing out some tidbits.
4. Strength of schedule. Guys. It's too early to start talking about that. Ole Miss is #112 Baylor 149 TCU 140 Arizona 171 Oregon 104....are these teams not good? SOS - UNLV is 9th, fresno 19, SMU 10 Kansas 32, TROY 17...are they good? So - the point is - it is a piece of the puzzle but be careful about who has done what yet....I mean Tiger Woods is only good because he started golf so young I could have done that.....
IF IF IF..
.We do know that this will be Missouri's toughest game though.
5. So given SOS - Kentucky 26, Mizz 131 
...These stats need to do be taken with a grain of salt...But what exactly does Kentucky do well? 85th rushing 95th passing - QB was 8/24 last wk - 0 TD passes 4 of his last 5 games and now faces good Mizz secondary - and he runs like a baby giraffe and has thrown more int than TD. Their D is ranked 70. Mizz has been brutal on offense but the D is #4 (again - vs WEAK) but they have pedigree people - 21 ppg last yr and most guys back this yr. Very disruptive in TFL and sacks and Kentucky is ranked #116 in sacks allowed.
6. Missouri OL has been trouble. Have not got the run game going and as we noted last week - they are banged up at RB - even with Hansbrough back this wk - and lack explosiveness on the outside. Not sure about the QB either as he completing a low % of his passes - and 53% last yr - so Mizz is probably gonna need their usual special teams/defensive TD magic to get a win here.
Potentially meaningless trends. Kentucky 7-19 L26 ATS SEC games; Mizz 14-3 ATS L17 away. and Pinkel has not had a losing ATS season since 2009 although they are 0-2 to start this season - 0-3 if you count FCS opener. Kentucky is 1-2.
Summary: No lean on the side. Hope Kentucky can bounce back after last wk - had that game circled wanted to beat Florida and end that 28 game losing streak. Mizz untested and OL struggling. Do lean under on the total but as you guys know we hate NCAA numbers in the 44 range not because they don't hit but b/c we are the kiss of death. Gonna pass.
mega
SORRY COVERS NATION - knew TRAIN loved Missouri and the point was ROLL WITH HIM he is probably right but if you wanted to hear about the matchup and some Missouri rationale - check out what I have to say.
we love typos
I believe it's a "tooth-out" in Lexington on Saturday (and most other days), so make sure you take that into consideration when factoring just how much the crowd will, in fact, be a-rockin'. In all, I make Kentucky my Dental-Reverse-Line-Movement-Vegas-Head-Fake-Train69 LOCK OF THE WEEK. 
buddy 
thx GL this wk
foolsgold - I am afraid so my friend - I honestly cannot believe it went down that much I think 50-51 was still good but 47.5 / 48 is not a good bet IMO even if it cashes....Let's wait for team totals still think there is value there - right now implied totals are approx. 25 and 23 and I think you can make the case for either one to go under....kinda like NW/Duke last wk. GL with how you see it.
temple - keep cashing you freak
Auburn 3 Miss St
Megalocks line - pick em
Just looking at the last couple of weeks it appears simple - LSU destroyed Auburn - LSU squeeked by Miss St.....Common opponent handicapping 101?? Well Auburn game was on the road / Miss St game at home...But we do see some merit in that approach to a point...Miss St we believe did not get full marks for their game vs LSU and that was just one reason we backed LSU last wk....Dak still solid at QB...0 int so far and the spot looks good - Auburn off giving up 400 yds rushing - Miss St off a tune up....So we DO lean Miss St at a FG or more....but two things keep this at a lean for NOW but it is on our radar for a play...1) Need to verify who is in and who is out on the defensive side of the ball for Auburn injuries often overrated but want to have an idea of exactly how many starters may be out and how thin the DL is 2) we are not Auburn experts and always look forward to the local guys takes - but our correspondents tell us that Sean White may get the start at QB for Auburn - he got 100% of the snaps with the #1s in practice - now that may not mean anything - and he may stink - but our point is that could be just enough of a spark to help turn Auburn around I mean they don't stink and get this one at home - a big win here and things are turned around....Again - just some rumblings we read - but JJ has 6 INT - and you did not want to throw in a new QB at LSU - so maybe just maybe this is a turning point for Auburn....Really surprised at the -3 and believe it or not this puppy was -4 on BOL initially for a minute or two.
Summary - lean Miss St at +3 or better. On short list of potential adds.
mega
MEGALOCKS REQUEST LINE
Cal 4.5 Washington (61)
Megalocks line -1
Cal did the unthinkable last wk giving up 650Y to TEXAS - but of course they put up 548Y of their own and thanks to a missed XP by Texas won a 45-44 shootout....They have now scored 73 35 45 in 3 games - Washington D has looked a lot better than we thought but have not faced a decent passing attack yet and Goff can shred you up so the huskies will have their hands full - In Wash favor - the potentially useless trend of winning 7L8 vs Cal...We must say we do like the look of their FR QB back to back 300Y games....They have had a hard time running the ball at times but that should not be a problem against Cal. Wash 2-0 ATS in FBS games.
Summary. Lean Wash at +4 or better. Lean over 61. May add this to the official list later in the week; Not going to jump on it yet since have not seen much of Cal or Wash on TV only one half each no real feel yet.
MEGALOCKS REQUEST LINE
NC St 17 S Alabama (54.5)
Megalocks line 17
Sadly do not see much value here....We have the line exactly at -17/54 which probably means nothing - nut suppose you could make a case for either team; NC St riding a 6 games win streak dating back to last yr no signature type win in there but we always like confident winning teams and they look really good even against poor foes giving up less than 200Y/game....Worries are 2-9 L11 ATS as road fav (covered LW tho) and lookahead to conf play and Louisville...S Alabama went on the road after squeeking by Gardner Webb and getting blasted by Huskers and beat SD St outright in OT as a DD underdog...Now you know we do not think that highly of SD St yet - but they must be feeling pretty good coming home to face and ACC team - The transfers seem to be fitting in pretty nicely getting good QB play - putting up 500 at SD St is no easy task...They also have conf play starting next wk
Summary - no lean on side or total
Summary of picks so far:
Tex AM -3 -120
Penn St -11
Florida / Kentucky under 53.5
Games discussed in order in thread so far
Tex AM / Arkansas
Penn St / SD St
SEC games
Cal/Washington
NC St / S Alabama
UP NEXT - Big 10
mega
MEGALOCKS REQUEST LINE
NC St 17 S Alabama (54.5)
Megalocks line 17
Sadly do not see much value here....We have the line exactly at -17/54 which probably means nothing - nut suppose you could make a case for either team; NC St riding a 6 games win streak dating back to last yr no signature type win in there but we always like confident winning teams and they look really good even against poor foes giving up less than 200Y/game....Worries are 2-9 L11 ATS as road fav (covered LW tho) and lookahead to conf play and Louisville...S Alabama went on the road after squeeking by Gardner Webb and getting blasted by Huskers and beat SD St outright in OT as a DD underdog...Now you know we do not think that highly of SD St yet - but they must be feeling pretty good coming home to face and ACC team - The transfers seem to be fitting in pretty nicely getting good QB play - putting up 500 at SD St is no easy task...They also have conf play starting next wk
Summary - no lean on side or total
Summary of picks so far:
Tex AM -3 -120
Penn St -11
Florida / Kentucky under 53.5
Games discussed in order in thread so far
Tex AM / Arkansas
Penn St / SD St
SEC games
Cal/Washington
NC St / S Alabama
UP NEXT - Big 10
mega
yup ! ha tried to correct my mistake and kept screwing up ! Meant to be a TRAIN tribute 
and ended up being a gong show 
sorry guys
Calbear - ya Coz is very good; they do not take care of the marine life as well as Belize tho.
Michigan St 27 Chips (54)
Megalocks line 24
Well the Covers-anointed best defense in the NCAA gave up 20+ fior the 3rd straight week and did not cover for the 3rd straight week...Keep in mind Sparty has always been a fav of ours to bet - well at least since Dantonio got there - but after going 10-4 and 9-4 ATS the last 2 yrs and being a relatively high profile team now - there is just almost no way to get a cheap price on them now - well at least unless they play another darling like Baylor and we get a 2985029348523045 star BOWL WINNER but we digress
Big 10 sched on deck - think Mich St will wanna get the ground game going b/c IMO they will not win the big 10 unless that gets better - were outgained by AF last wk too so we think Sparty maybe a bit more interested in laying a beatdown - Chips off OT loss to Syracuse and they also have conf play on deck....#127 in rushing and they figure to get close to 0 yds rushing in this one - QB Rush can MATRICULATE in the passing game with a BEVY
of weapons but being one dimensional is not going to help.
Summary. No leanage. Probably a 20-28 pt lead after 3Q and cover TBD by random events and random officiating.
mega
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