Posted:
#201
waaaay too many games
*** NCAA Football Week 1 ***
Posted:
#209
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
I usually have 10 games in the books before the 6 pm games start
Boom is correct. Value is where you find it. If you can only find 2 or 3 games you think you have enough knowledge to bet on, then you should probably quit. If you only bet 2 or 3 games you either have to hit 100% or 66% to make make money each week. Thats not gonna be easy. Hitting 12 out of 20 isnt so hard......
I usually have 10 games in the books before the 6 pm games start
Boom is correct. Value is where you find it. If you can only find 2 or 3 games you think you have enough knowledge to bet on, then you should probably quit. If you only bet 2 or 3 games you either have to hit 100% or 66% to make make money each week. Thats not gonna be easy. Hitting 12 out of 20 isnt so hard......
first of all Id like to say im not one to get into lengthy discussions on line but this makes no sense........ the less games u choose the better chance at being successful...... u have a way better chance of 60% playing 3 to 5 a week then 20 a week....or even 10 for that matter.......no disrespect because its apparent that its a topic and statement on your part that needs further clarification but 
and I'm sure you know ur RSI but for those that dont.......
RSI also shows you the difference between a 20-10 record and a 40-20 record. Both records are 67%, but the 40-20 record is much harder to achieve, and results in a higher RSI rating.
anyway....GL this season Train.....ttysoon
Posted:
#211
Quote Originally Posted by slomotion:
first of all Id like to say im not one to get into lengthy discussions on line but this makes no sense........ the less games u choose the better chance at being successful...... u have a way better chance of 60% playing 3 to 5 a week then 20 a week....or even 10 for that matter.......no disrespect because its apparent that its a topic and statement on your part that needs further clarification but
and I'm sure you know ur RSI but for those that dont.......
RSI also shows you the difference between a 20-10 record and a 40-20 record. Both records are 67%, but the 40-20 record is much harder to achieve, and results in a higher RSI rating.
anyway....GL this season Train.....ttysoon
Why do you have more chance with less games? And I need a logical (statistical?) answer not a wordy one. If you cap well enough to have an edge then the more you play the MORE likely you are to tend towards that edge with a larger play size.
Posted:
#212
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:
Why do you have more chance with less games? And I need a logical (statistical?) answer not a wordy one. If you cap well enough to have an edge then the more you play the MORE likely you are to tend towards that edge with a larger play size.
An aberration is much more likely in a small sample (5 games) than a larger sample (40 games). 60% is an aberration.
Posted:
#213
How about this guys: as Train said, value is where you find it - whether
it's one game or a hundred on any given week. I think this is what
Boom does - and he makes his wagers accordingly by making unit wagers -
more units where there is more value, fewer units where there is less
relative value, but still value from his handicapping perspective.
At the end of the day, it is the best approach becuase while we all like to say we hit 65% of our plays or whatever, at the end what really matters is how many units of cash you have won. There are plenty of successful handicappers hitting 56-57%, but if you're playing a lot of games and adjusting your bet size based on value, will can win a lot of units. Same for only playing a few very selective games, but you must hit the higher percentage.
Boom can correct me here on the specifics, but I think he won something like 40 units last season in CFB. I don't care how you do it, that is a great season - if your unit size is 2% of bankroll, that's an 80% ROI in 4 months; if your unit size is 5% of bankroll, it's a 200% ROI; both of which beat the markets by a long shot ....
GWJTF
At the end of the day, it is the best approach becuase while we all like to say we hit 65% of our plays or whatever, at the end what really matters is how many units of cash you have won. There are plenty of successful handicappers hitting 56-57%, but if you're playing a lot of games and adjusting your bet size based on value, will can win a lot of units. Same for only playing a few very selective games, but you must hit the higher percentage.
Boom can correct me here on the specifics, but I think he won something like 40 units last season in CFB. I don't care how you do it, that is a great season - if your unit size is 2% of bankroll, that's an 80% ROI in 4 months; if your unit size is 5% of bankroll, it's a 200% ROI; both of which beat the markets by a long shot ....
GWJTF
Posted:
#215
ZZZZZ......half is true..... you sound like a bored table games supervisor beating around the bush about basic bankroll management when playing Blackjack....lol.....granted I dont flat bet but and I have easily doubled my bankroll in college foots year after year so I dunno...... also we are not talking blackjack here so the "game of chance" we are playing is not even close to similar..... im done with topic and trashing up this thread.....
GL Boom
Posted:
#216
Interesting conversation we got going here guys.
Woody - Well thought out.
I always respect a well thought out response.
Look guys, it's simple for me. I know there is always a ton of discussions on how to mange your money or how many games to play. I say this. Do what's best for you.
I play more games for this very simple reason...... I have a larger overall knowledge of the college football landscape then most. I see " value " in what I believe to be true. What I mean is, most guys focus on one conference, and that's totally fine. There again, do whats best for you!! I may bet on more games with a larger variety. But I only do that because I follow every conference and every team whereas most guys just follow one team or one conference. Trust me, If I bet on 13 plays in week 1....it's because I like those 13 plays. I think for my " money " or my " value ", it's the best for me.
Again I will say this. Whereas 99.99% of every covers member you will meet cares about one thing. Winning there bet, Covering the game. As with me, I do want to cover my bet dont get me wrong. But I share my thoughts and picks with you guys because I'm a purist. I write the " ten things we learned " every week because I love the game, and I feel like my " voice " for the college game needs to be heard. The game of football means more to me then money. Although I have done very well with it through the years, it's simply not the most important thing in my life. I make good money at my job and have a wonderful family. Those are the things that mean the most to me, not gambling. So I say this to all the " Perfect System Gamblers "........Do whats best for you
Woody - Well thought out.
I always respect a well thought out response.Look guys, it's simple for me. I know there is always a ton of discussions on how to mange your money or how many games to play. I say this. Do what's best for you.
I play more games for this very simple reason...... I have a larger overall knowledge of the college football landscape then most. I see " value " in what I believe to be true. What I mean is, most guys focus on one conference, and that's totally fine. There again, do whats best for you!! I may bet on more games with a larger variety. But I only do that because I follow every conference and every team whereas most guys just follow one team or one conference. Trust me, If I bet on 13 plays in week 1....it's because I like those 13 plays. I think for my " money " or my " value ", it's the best for me.
Again I will say this. Whereas 99.99% of every covers member you will meet cares about one thing. Winning there bet, Covering the game. As with me, I do want to cover my bet dont get me wrong. But I share my thoughts and picks with you guys because I'm a purist. I write the " ten things we learned " every week because I love the game, and I feel like my " voice " for the college game needs to be heard. The game of football means more to me then money. Although I have done very well with it through the years, it's simply not the most important thing in my life. I make good money at my job and have a wonderful family. Those are the things that mean the most to me, not gambling. So I say this to all the " Perfect System Gamblers "........Do whats best for you
Posted:
#223
Quote Originally Posted by anna31204:
I know others have said it this really is the best thread on covers ... really helps that you're a frickin' beast when it comes to picks ... take it to the house again this year BOOM !!!
Anna31204
I know others have said it this really is the best thread on covers ... really helps that you're a frickin' beast when it comes to picks ... take it to the house again this year BOOM !!!
Anna31204
this is the thread of a fruity fruitloop who owes me 3k from when i wiped his bunghole on the golf course down in south carolina last summer.
gl fruitloop 
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