NCAA Bowl Ponderings and Plays Thread

Stay hott. Happy new year

BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

10* TEXAS TECH +2 over OREGON - I don't think Vegas has caught up to how good this Red Raiders team is. Omitting the Week Two blowout of Kent St. where they were favored by 48, and the ASU loss when QB Behren Morton was injured, they've gone 10-0 SU and ATS. And in those ten contests they haven't just BEATEN the spread, they've CLOBBERED it by an average of over 14 points a contest! Their defense is suffocating, allowing 254.4 yards a game and just 68.4 on the ground (2.3 yards per rush), AND they have 31 takeaways (+17 in net turnovers). These guys are just relentless, which is a word I've used to describe Indiana under Curt Cignetti. I believe Tech is every bit as good as the Hoosiers, and earlier this season Indy went to Eugene and dominated the Ducks, 30-20, and if Fernando Mendoza hadn't thrown a pick six it wouldn't have been that close. I'm not taking anything away from Oregon, but they've been stymied by good defenses this year. The 0-5 bowl record for teams off the first round bye is concerning, but it shouldn't affect the Red Raiders defense. Also, Morton is completely healthy now after playing much of the season with a hairline fracture. Bottom line, I'm gonna go with Texas Tech, 31-17! 

Some thoughts on the other two games today:

Indiana -7 Alabama - Let me just say this is NOT Nick Saban's Crimson Tide team. This is a flawed team that beat another flawed team with their first round mini upset of Oklahoma. They've been outgained in their last three contests by 107 yards a game, were dominated by Georgia in the SEC title game and had some incredibly good fortune in wins over Auburn and the Sooners. On the other hand, there's the Heisman jinx, the 0-5 SU and ATS record for playoff bye teams, and the weather factor. It's been pouring buckets in SoCal and rain has been in the forecast all week. A sloppy track can be a great talent equalizer. I'm leaning Bama here, but hesitant to bet against Curt Cignetti. 

Georgia -6' Ole Miss - My initial lean was on the Bulldogs, but the Rebels gave them all they could handle in a back and forth affair in Athens in mid October. The Dawgs covered the 7' point line with a field goal late in the game. The long layoff is concerning for Georgia. They've been relatively slow starters for much of the season, but Kirby Smart has been a master at halftime adjustments. Granted they've played their best ball at the end of the season, with blowout wins over Texas and Bama, but Ole Miss has lost just one game this season...the earlier meeting in Athens. Since Trinidad Chambliss took over at QB the Rebels have been on cruise control for the most part. I'm passing on this one.

 texas is sleeping 

@roberob2u

 Yeah, not looking good so far.

With 2 turnovers and only down 6.  Still got life. 

Goodness…this Moreton… has to play better… quicker and stronger decisions… and their running backs need to go… what’s with this one second hesitation after you get the ball….  Another bye team playing like crap.    That makes it 100% ….again.  

I figured the TT coach would have been in tears… he’s had 3 weeks to get ready… but he wasn’t.   He says we need to do better…. I would have not thought of that one.   

Total domination in the first half by the Ducks. 11 first downs to 3, 198 total yards to 88, 22:03 possession time to 7:57, plus 2 in turnovers, and yet they only lead 6-0. Hopefully TTU comes out with guns blazing in the second half like Ohio St. did last night. They need a long drive to start things off to give that defense a rest. They're still in this thing! 

@Boisestateand8

 TT OF not even trying.

I have TT plus 13.5 in a 7 team parlay… I figured that was safe… I was wrong…. I will be totally surprised if Cignetti team is not ready… ditto for Georgia coach.  Are we going to repeat the past… cignetti leaves no stone unturned… that I have seen.    Go Hoosiers … 

Btw… they are NOT… throwing flags… I picked up on that in first round… these dbs are almost tackling receivers these days.  Knowing no call.   Can’t blame the dbs.  

Either Oregon is really good or some of these Tech players got a nice paycheck! 

Tough one...You will bounce back

10* Texas Tech +2  What a horrible pick, and a tough way to end one the best runs I've been on in years. Sorry to anyone that tailed me in this shitshow. TTU's  defense played great, as I expected, but Behren Morton and the offense played like they were hungover from partying all night on New Year's Eve. It'll be interesting to see what happens in these last two games. If the bye teams continue to lose I expect major changes in the CFP format.......again. In my opinion, scrap the bowls altogether and adopt a 24 team FCS type playoff where the higher seeds host the games. And start the playoffs the week after the conference championship games.

I feel your pain mah man @Boisestateand8

Cignetti and Georgia coach should have their teams ready.  K Smart….  Indy up 10.   Never seen him call off dogs… I stupidly have the over also…. I have a tendency to self sabatoge.   I need 17-7 halftime.  ????

Who do you like tomorrow Sir?

I'm not seeing anything I like tomorrow. Looking at some possible NFL action this weekend.

Early lines for semifinal games

Indiana -3' to -4 Oregon 

Miami FL -2' to -3 Ole Miss 

Some semifinal thoughts

Miami FL -3' Ole Miss - I won with the Hurricanes in the first two rounds, but I hate the line for this game. The 'Canes are better in the trenches, they run the ball well and they absolutely stuff it on defense. They protect Carson Beck really well, and they average over three QB sacks a game on defense, AND they're +12 in net turnovers. The Rebels have won their first two playoff games in spite of Lame Kiffin (not a misspell, the name fits), but now they have a coaching staff with divided loyalties, one that's splitting time between Baton Rouge and Oxford, and I'm not sure who will actually be running the offense for this game. But I HATE this line. Mario Cristobal is just 15-20 ATS with Miami as chalk, and the Ole Miss players seem to have a "screw you we don't need you" attitude when it comes to Kiffin. One can make a case for Miami to advance to the title game, but beware the disrespected dog!

Indiana -4 Oregon - The Hoosiers are the only bye team to win a playoff game over the last two years under the current format, and they did it with merciless precision. They were absolutely relentless in their 38-3 demolition of Alabama. Meanwhile, the Ducks ended my 13-1 ATS run with a dominant win over Texas Tech. Oregon's offense was stymied by a tough Tech defense, but the Red Raiders offense was a no show in a 23-0 embarrassment. Indiana won the earlier matchup in Eugene, 30-20, and the game wasn't really that close. Fernando Mendoza threw a pick six that made the score respectable, but the Hoosiers dominated that game late. Curt Cignetti is the best coach in college football, in my opinion. I don't think this game will be a blowout, and I'm not sure I'll play it, but i sure as hell won't be betting against Cignetti.

I've never been a totals guy, but under 46' points in the Peach Bowl looks like a decent play. I can't see the Ducks quacking, er... I mean cracking 17 against this defense, given what they've done against the best defenses they've faced this season. Especially against THIS defense.

As for the Fiesta Bowl, as good as Miami's defense has looked over the first two rounds, Ole Miss has cracked 30 plus in two games vs. Georgia and one at Oklahoma, and has been held to less than 30 just TWICE all season. I'm also seeing that, so far, Lame Kiffin hasn't been able to lure any Rebels players to LSU via the transfer portal. And Charles Weis is staying to coordinate the offense, at least in this game. I'm picking up some real good vibes from the Ole Miss program! 

I'm curious to know what the general consensus is on the totals for these two games. In the only other game vs. a defense comparable to Miami's, the Rebels outscored Oklahoma, 34-26, in Norman, as a 4.5 point dog (closing total was 52.5), and Trinidad Chambliss was sacked just ONE TIME. Now, while the line in the Fiesta Bowl has dropped to -3, the total is now up to 52.5.  

As for the Peach Bowl the total has jumped two full points to 48.5! And I thought 46.5 was a little high to begin with! Against the tougher opponents both Indiana and Oregon have faced this season, the games have been, for the most part, low scoring affairs.

I'm no totals expert so all opinions are welcome.

B8 

@Fuse 

@Boisestateand8 

BOL