Hey guys,
Got two plays on deck today. One was a courtesy capped game requested from @BetterThanu. Thanks for putting it up brother 
TODAY I AM ON:
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS -10 (-115)
The public is all over Navy here. They see a 7-2 home team getting double-digit points, and they love the narrative of the #1 rushing offense. This is a trap.
The most important stat in this matchup isn't Navy's win-loss record; it's their 2-7 Against The Spread (ATS) record. Navy is one of the worst teams in the country at covering the spread, including a 1-4 ATS record at home. They simply do not play up to the market's expectation.
This "style clash" is being misread. The public assumes USF can't stop the triple-option. The fact is, USF has the #23-ranked rush defense in the nation, allowing only 110.1 yards per game. This is a disciplined, physical front seven that is built to stop exactly what Navy wants to do.
On the other side, Navy has no answer for the Bulls' offense. USF is ranked 7th in the country, scoring 42.0 points per game. This game has a fatal flaw for the Midshipmen: if (and when) USF gets a 14-point lead, the game is over. Navy is one-dimensional and has the 129th-ranked passing offense in college football. They are incapable of playing from behind. USF will be stacking the box and throwing everything at stopping this RUSH attack. A few key stops for USF and they get their Offense rolling it will be very hard for NAVY to rebound being one dimensional. Seeing a score of USF 37-24.
NEXT:
BAMA -6 (-110)
'm laying the 6 points with Alabama at home in what should be a defensive battle (the over/under is a low 46 points).
This pick comes down to two key factors: quarterback play and turnovers.
First, look at the QBs. Alabama's Ty Simpson has been incredibly efficient, with 21 touchdowns and only 1 interception this season. In contrast, Oklahoma's John Mateer has been a liability, throwing 8 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. In a game this tight, that's a massive advantage for the Tide.
Second, the turnover battle is heavily skewed. Alabama's defense is opportunistic (16 takeaways), and their offense protects the ball (only 6 giveaways all season, 3rd best in the nation). Oklahoma is the exact opposite, ranking 122nd in turnovers forced (only 7) and 69th in giveaways (12).
Alabama (8-1) is at home, has the better quarterback, and is facing a 7-2 team that gives the ball away. I expect Bama's defense to create a short field and the offense to capitalize, covering the 6-point spread.
LL! 
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